1992 GOP nomination if Bush 41 declines

[Suburbia]

In March 1991, President Bush was tired. He did not feel he could run for reelection and a fourth GOP term in 1992 after the Gulf War and was considering retiring....

Who would have won the nomination had he declined? Vice President Quayle? Dole? Kemp? Buchanan?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I guess Jack Kemp...

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Bob Dole vs. Elizabeth Dole?

[Agonized-Statism]

In general, it's hard to see a party establishment getting behind a mutiny of the incumbent administration, but Quayle was so disliked that Kemp would have a strong shot as the conservative standard-bearer of the day. Dole is always a safe bet for a compromise candidate and sacrificial lamb, while Buchanan would have been a lot more viable. If Bush retires, things are bad and I imagine Kemp waits it out until the next election; Quayle and Buchanan have an alarmingly close race and the former or Dole are nominated at the convention, losing big.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Dole won the '96 primaries because he was "next in line" as a tenured statesman who had already been the runner-up in '88 as well as a vice presidential nominee. He'd be the natural choice in this scenario too.

Nominating him in '96 didn't make any sense from a strategic perspective, though. No, it's not unprecedented for a sitting Senate Majority Leader to be on a party's ticket as LBJ can attest, but Congress was far more polarized and a lot less popular by that point and nominating him then only gave Clinton tons of ammo against the "Dole-Gingrich agenda" coupled with the improved economy. The biggest surprise of that election was how much Clinton underperformed.

[Suburbia]

What about South Carolina Gov. Carroll Campbell? He was feisty and strong. Campbell could have beaten Clinton.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

What about South Carolina Gov. Carroll Campbell? He was feisty and strong. Campbell could have beaten Clinton.

No one would have beaten Clinton.

Very interesting fact I learned by the way: Antonin Scalia was kinda seriously considered as Dole's running mate. No one knew about this though until John Boehner revealed he pushed for it in an interview from 2016.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Pitchfork Pat would've had a good shot. But yeah, probably Dole.

[All Along The Watchtower]

What about South Carolina Gov. Carroll Campbell? He was feisty and strong. Campbell could have beaten Clinton.

No one would have beaten Clinton.

"Bush would've won if not for Ross Perot" has always struck me as obvious cope from Republicans, regardless of the many empirical problems with the claim.

[oldtimer]

If he conceded in March 1992 it would have been Buchanan.

If it was before, tought to say.

Buchanan only ran as a social conservative reaction to Bush, without Bush he wouldn't have ran.
But the GOP was in internal civil war after the fall of the Soviet Union deprived it of it's glue.

I guss if it was March of 1991 it would have been James Baker vs Bob Dole.

Baker was quite popular and Dole wanted it as the next in line.

Looking at how popular Buchanan was among republicans and since Dole wasn't perceived in 1992 as too old or too moderate, I guess Dole would have beaten Baker.

[Suburbia]

What about South Carolina Gov. Carroll Campbell? He was feisty and strong. Campbell could have beaten Clinton.

No one would have beaten Clinton.

Very interesting fact I learned by the way: Antonin Scalia was kinda seriously considered as Dole's running mate. No one knew about this though until John Boehner revealed he pushed for it in an interview from 2016.

You really sure about that? Clinton had character issues, look at the Lewinsky scandal 6 years later in 1998. Carroll Campbell would have eaten him alive with that stuff.