Did the Shooting of Jacob Blake realign Kenosha county?
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  Did the Shooting of Jacob Blake realign Kenosha county?
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Author Topic: Did the Shooting of Jacob Blake realign Kenosha county?  (Read 1221 times)
Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
Junior Chimp
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« on: March 20, 2023, 02:53:58 PM »

Kenosha county WI used to be a slight blue county voting for Gore/Kerry and Obama twice. In the 2010s it became a battleground county, voting for Scott Walker in 2010 and 2014 (although against him in the recall) and for Tony Evers in 2018. Ron Johnson narrowly won the county in 2010 an 2016. Trump in 2016 carried it by <350 votes.

However in 2020, following the shooting of Jacob Blake there were mass riots in Kenosha leading up with the cumuliation of Kyle Rittenhouse and his controversy. Since that point the county has expanded further into the Republican column. Despite losing Wisconsin in 2020, Trump expanded his margin in Kenosha county now winning it by around 3k votes.

In 2022, Ron Johnson's margin decreased yet he still did better there than 2016. Statewide Dems like Evers and the rest of the ticket who won the county in 2018, now all lost it despite doing better statewide than 2018. It is likely that Baldwin loses Kenosha county in 2024 regardless of how she may do statewide (unless she wins by double digits).

Was the Jacob Blake incident simply a coincidence that coorelated with a realigning county or did it actually have an impact on the trends in Kenosha county.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2023, 04:38:43 PM »

The riots absolutely contributed to it voting R in 2020 despite insistence otherwise. I think the Acquittal of Rittenhouse only further turned off people to the left
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TML
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« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2023, 07:05:57 PM »

This is a county with a very high share of non-Hispanic Whites (87%) and a relatively low share of voters with a college degree (29%). Places with similar demographic profiles shifted significantly away from Democrats during the Trump era.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2023, 07:13:04 PM »

This is a county with a very high share of non-Hispanic Whites (87%) and a relatively low share of voters with a college degree (29%). Places with similar demographic profiles shifted significantly away from Democrats during the Trump era.
That excuse doesn't cut it. Places like Sullivan County NH, Erie County PA etc all voted Trump 16-Biden 2020 despite having low educational attainment. It was obviously the rioting
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2023, 07:17:27 PM »

This is a county with a very high share of non-Hispanic Whites (87%) and a relatively low share of voters with a college degree (29%). Places with similar d
emographic profiles shifted significantly away from Democrats during the Trump era.
That excuse doesn't cut it. Places like Sullivan County NH, Erie County PA etc all voted Trump 16-Biden 2020 despite having low educational attainment. It was obviously the rioting
Something on par with what happened in Kenosha County certainly has the ability to impact the local voting patterns, yeah.
Though, it should be noted that Kenosha County had showed signs of being more Republican before (like in 2019, iirc). The county is increasingly Milwaukee exurbs, and R ones at that, while Racine County is becoming more Democratic due to Chicagoland's influence spilling over the state line.
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Spectator
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« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2023, 10:55:47 PM »

Obviously.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2023, 08:01:09 PM »

This is a county with a very high share of non-Hispanic Whites (87%) and a relatively low share of voters with a college degree (29%). Places with similar d
emographic profiles shifted significantly away from Democrats during the Trump era.
That excuse doesn't cut it. Places like Sullivan County NH, Erie County PA etc all voted Trump 16-Biden 2020 despite having low educational attainment. It was obviously the rioting
Something on par with what happened in Kenosha County certainly has the ability to impact the local voting patterns, yeah.
Though, it should be noted that Kenosha County had showed signs of being more Republican before (like in 2019, iirc). The county is increasingly Milwaukee exurbs, and R ones at that, while Racine County is becoming more Democratic due to Chicagoland's influence spilling over the state line.
Kenosha is on the Illinois stateline, and Racine is to its north. Wouldn't spillover affect Kenosha more than Racine then?
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2023, 01:56:43 PM »

Without taking a strong stance either way, I do think it is worth noting that Kenosha County was a significant outlier in being the only county in Southeast Wisconsin to swing right in 2020.
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DS0816
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« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2023, 10:00:34 PM »


No.

The county was a 2016 Republican pickup for Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump who, at the same time, won a Republican pickup of Wisconsin.

Numerous state counties have been realigning their voting patterns. Often this gets timed with a Republican or a Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States.

Numerous counties which realign to a pickup-winning Republican or Democrat have been doing so for the first time in decades. Kenosha County, Wisconsin became a 2016 Republican pickup for the first time for this political party since 1972 Richard Nixon.


From Wikipedia:


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