I wouldn't be too quick to call such a contest in favor of Frisch - after all, 2024 will feature presidential-level turnout, and under such turnout, Boebert could very well win by 5000 votes instead of 500 votes.
This. The way I see it increased polarisation naturally works to Boebart's favour in a district Trump/DeSantis will definitely win by a decent margin. And as for Democrats giving this seat a much closer look, while that's true, the Republicans are now also going to be on their guard for sure.