Who wins a Boebert vs. Frisch rematch?

[Burke Bro]

This race is a tossup but I would still give the advantage to Boebert. Trump still won this district by double digits in 2020  and just because Boebert came close to losing in a midterm year doesn’t mean the same will be true in a higher turnout presidential year where there’s going to be much more enthusiasm on both sides and less split ticket voting. And this district isn’t anchored by any major metro regions with large numbers of college educated professionals that could produce type of strong and reliable towards Democratic trends that we’ve seen in the front range districts. In fact, Pueblo (by far the biggest vote sink for Democrats) could become a serious long term liability due to its overwhelmingly Hispanic and working class demographics. Frisch overperformed Biden substantially in the western slope and ski country in 2022 but he only barely overperformed him in Pueblo and certainly didn’t match Obama numbers there, which may have ultimately been what cost him the election.