Article: The Modern Electoral History of Transphobia

[Sic Semper Tyrannis]

IIRC the desantis landslide was based on general popularity based on handling of hurricaines and other stuff that political junkies don't think about that much but that the average voter very much does.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trans issues get far too much disproportionate attention in US politics. Transgender people make up 0.5% of the US population. I am generally pro-transgender rights but the issue takes up way too much oxygen compared to more pressing concerns.

This is by design. Republicans can't win on policy (outside of culture war policy).

I mean when we talk economics all we hear from your side is :

-Republicans are extremely selfish

- Republicans want to cut your grandpa's and grandma Social Security/Medicare so they can give money to rich people

- Being for deregulations means you dont care about the environment or consumers

I also remember back in 2017 people were saying its evil to support Paul Ryan's healthcare plan(keep in mind I opposed it but it wasnt evil).

[Trump Is A Maoist]

I mean when we talk economics all we hear from your side is :

-Republicans are extremely selfish

- Republicans want to cut your grandpa's and grandma Social Security/Medicare so they can give money to rich people

- Being for deregulations means you dont care about the environment or consumers

I also remember back in 2017 people were saying its evil to support Paul Ryan's healthcare plan(keep in mind I opposed it but it wasnt evil).

Republican economics can be summarized as "we need to make things easier for rich people and corporations, and because of that, everything will also be better for everyone else".

There's never any evidence that outcomes are actually better for anybody else though. There's never a great argument that Republicans have made that isn't misleading, that their polices are better for regular people. It's all unsubstantiated claims and misdirection.

[Ferguson97]

I mean when we talk economics all we hear from your side is :

-Republicans are extremely selfish

- Republicans want to cut your grandpa's and grandma Social Security/Medicare so they can give money to rich people

- Being for deregulations means you dont care about the environment or consumers

I also remember back in 2017 people were saying its evil to support Paul Ryan's healthcare plan

All of these things are true

[หมูเด้ง]

Florida seems to be counterargument where Republicans are winning 1984 margins on basically banning sex.

Florida is about to hit a wall with Republicans though. Continual red tide due to big sugar, on the cusp of water trouble and with increased hurricanes I would not be surprised with insurers pulling out.

That’d be a hoot but I’ll wait until I see it.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Why did the chicken cross the road?

To conquer his transphobia.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Again Republicans who ran on trans issues without running on election denialism did very well in 2022. Correlation does not equal causation.

It’s just that many republicans who ran in trans issues also ran on election denialism

People who ran against abolition, the right to vote for numerous groups, segregation, anti-LGBT used to poll and do well too. Doesn’t mean it’s not immoral and won’t fail in the end.

We aren’t gonna agree on what’s moral or not when it comes to these issues so let’s stay to the topic on hand which is the electoral impact And it’s no where near as good for the left’s position as you guys think .

Trans rights are absolutely a winning issue for Democrats, whether you care to acknowledge it or not.

As I've said before, the majority of people are not necessarily "woke" on the issue, but they know bullies when they see them. And to a normal person, the right looks like a bunch of bullies. They don't "get" trans stuff, but they don't support discrimination or cruelty. 

If republicans run on banning adult gender affirming care , yes they will lose . If they do what FL/GA/VA have done so far they will not and DeSantis/Kemp/Youngkin popularity shows this . People do not think schools should go behind parents back on this type of stuff

If DeSantis is the candidate and they make the primary campaign about what DeSantis has done on these issues they absolutely will get wrecked . The thing is they won’t cause Biden is way more politically adept than that

You can't just say "look at DeSantis/Kemp/Youngkin being popular, it must be their position on trans issues" when there are just as many Governors who are popular and take the progressive stance on trans issues.

I think it's going to be like abortion. You guys can take whatever moderate position you like, but voters are not going to trust that you won't try and go further.

Voters are far far more liberal on abortion than they are on this issue so it’s laughable to compare the two .

Well obviously, there are more women who got an abortion than trans people.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I have no clue why this communist has become so popular on ET.

[Dan the Roman]

The author actually has quite a few interesting articles, especially regarding Abrams, but reading through this I think he has a clear grasp of events, but as with almost everyone engaging on this issue, he is filtering them through pre-conceived notions. He is correct

1. That the issue is not being driven by traditional electoral calculations
2. That sentiment is much stronger among elites than among ordinary voters

But he then concludes that "Transphobia" is a project of conservative elites for electoral purposes which they pursue despite it clearly failing. And that is wrong.

For one thing

#2 is true of both sides. Positions are vastly more extreme among elites in general. Ordinary LGBT individuals and the vast majority of Trans people you would encounter away from politics or elite circles tend to be unengaged by culture war aspects such as Rowling, and conflicted over some aspects of medical care for minors or even things like sports. The issue is that the more elite someone is the more extreme they are.

This applies to politics, but also to corporate and media roles. It is not just straight conservatives who are extreme, the younger generation of gay and lesbian conservatives who are not Pro-Trans tend to be extremally anti. In turn, Cis Pro-Trans figures in corporate America, the media and politics are just as extreme, angry, and aggressive if not more so than Trans colleagues.

The greatest difference from Same-Sex Marriage is that we are witnessing Reverse Contact theory. With gays and lesbians, the more you knew in elite circles, the less extreme you became because they tended to disassociate identity from politics. The reverse is happening now. If you are active on an elite campus, in the media, online, in corporate America or in politics, virtually all of your interactions on Trans issues will be negative.

Quite simply, if you are center-right, or a leftwinger who dissents on the issue, 90%+ of your interactions will be toxicity, cancelation efforts, bullying, and witchunt-esque abuses of process to settle personal scores. It becomes incredibly difficult to separate out the issue and the idea that most Trans individuals and people who support them are normal individuals if almost all your interactions are with sociopaths.

In turn, the toxicity of the issue drives non-sociopaths out of roles engaging with it, feeding a self-perpetuating cycle.

But people on this board are too dismissive of the idea people genuinely believe this because it does line-up with their lived experiences, and that the movement has been almost entirely one way on the Right. For the typical Republican or in the UK, Tory, there have been almost no positive countervailing influences for the past five years, and the result is that a failure to view Trans activism as a hostile force constitutes a lack of solidarity with friends and colleagues. They are fighting for survival because Trans Activism and non-Trans left-wingers are waging a war of extermination against them using the issue.

In turn, the Right exaggerates with the groomer rhetoric how widespread this extremism is on the ground or in schools. The Left, and posters here, nonetheless, deny how toxic it has become at elite levels. And how much damage leading advocacy groups and advocates have begun to do.

[Sic Semper Tyrannis]

Positions are vastly more extreme among elites in general. Ordinary LGBT individuals and the vast majority of Trans people you would encounter away from politics or elite circles tend to be unengaged by culture war aspects such as Rowling, and conflicted over some aspects of medical care for minors or even things like sports. The issue is that the more elite someone is the more extreme they are.

Maybe some cis LGB people, but trans people who oppose it are likely rare considering that the vast majority of us would have benefited from getting blockers and HRT at a young age.

[Dan the Roman]

Positions are vastly more extreme among elites in general. Ordinary LGBT individuals and the vast majority of Trans people you would encounter away from politics or elite circles tend to be unengaged by culture war aspects such as Rowling, and conflicted over some aspects of medical care for minors or even things like sports. The issue is that the more elite someone is the more extreme they are.

Maybe some cis LGB people, but trans people who oppose it are likely rare considering that the vast majority of us would have benefited from getting blockers and HRT at a young age.

Probably should have inverted sports, which I find is mostly a mixed issue outside online and advocacy(depending on level) and then things like whether you should have to have a dysphoria diagnosis.

The point I was trying to make is that everyone is much more extreme in elite circles on this which is an inversion of gay politics in the 1990s/early 2000s where if anything the advocacy groups and rich gays/lesbians were much more conservative than the demographic at large. The stuff that is being talked about by the HRC/GLAAD, while not quite at Stonewall/Mermaids levels in the UK, are things which no actual human beings care about outside politics or corporate HR.

That said, while the critique of rightwing claims that schools across the country are teaching this stuff that they mostly aren't is largely true, the claim "no one is saying this stuff or advocating it" is nonsense and anyone adjacent to those circles knows it is. The polarization is being driven by elites on both sides, even if the legislative consequences on the ground will be felt disproportionately on one end. But it is unclear if the influencers who have taken over actually particularly care.