Article: The Modern Electoral History of Transphobia

[Oppo]

https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1637160856566870016?s=20

https://twitter.com/AntiNateSilver/status/1637168260310347776?s=20

[Ferguson97]

I love the comment someone made in the replies, "Seems like the Right thought trans bashing would be a redo of gay bashing; they'd would get a decade or two out of it before the cultural shift towards toleration. To voters, it was essentially the same issue decided in the 2010s and they're not interested in relitigating."

[OSR stands with Israel]

Again Republicans who ran on trans issues without running on election denialism did very well in 2022. Correlation does not equal causation.

It’s just that many republicans who ran in trans issues also ran on election denialism

[MasterJedi]

Again Republicans who ran on trans issues without running on election denialism did very well in 2022. Correlation does not equal causation.

It’s just that many republicans who ran in trans issues also ran on election denialism

People who ran against abolition, the right to vote for numerous groups, segregation, anti-LGBT used to poll and do well too. Doesn’t mean it’s not immoral and won’t fail in the end.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Again Republicans who ran on trans issues without running on election denialism did very well in 2022. Correlation does not equal causation.

It’s just that many republicans who ran in trans issues also ran on election denialism

People who ran against abolition, the right to vote for numerous groups, segregation, anti-LGBT used to poll and do well too. Doesn’t mean it’s not immoral and won’t fail in the end.

We aren’t gonna agree on what’s moral or not when it comes to these issues so let’s stay to the topic on hand which is the electoral impact And it’s no where near as good for the left’s position as you guys think .

[Ferguson97]

Again Republicans who ran on trans issues without running on election denialism did very well in 2022. Correlation does not equal causation.

It’s just that many republicans who ran in trans issues also ran on election denialism

People who ran against abolition, the right to vote for numerous groups, segregation, anti-LGBT used to poll and do well too. Doesn’t mean it’s not immoral and won’t fail in the end.

We aren’t gonna agree on what’s moral or not when it comes to these issues so let’s stay to the topic on hand which is the electoral impact And it’s no where near as good for the left’s position as you guys think .

Trans rights are absolutely a winning issue for Democrats, whether you care to acknowledge it or not.

As I've said before, the majority of people are not necessarily "woke" on the issue, but they know bullies when they see them. And to a normal person, the right looks like a bunch of bullies. They don't "get" trans stuff, but they don't support discrimination or cruelty. 

[Orwell]

Again Republicans who ran on trans issues without running on election denialism did very well in 2022. Correlation does not equal causation.

It’s just that many republicans who ran in trans issues also ran on election denialism

People who ran against abolition, the right to vote for numerous groups, segregation, anti-LGBT used to poll and do well too. Doesn’t mean it’s not immoral and won’t fail in the end.

Hell they still do they’re called Democrats

[OSR stands with Israel]

Again Republicans who ran on trans issues without running on election denialism did very well in 2022. Correlation does not equal causation.

It’s just that many republicans who ran in trans issues also ran on election denialism

People who ran against abolition, the right to vote for numerous groups, segregation, anti-LGBT used to poll and do well too. Doesn’t mean it’s not immoral and won’t fail in the end.

We aren’t gonna agree on what’s moral or not when it comes to these issues so let’s stay to the topic on hand which is the electoral impact And it’s no where near as good for the left’s position as you guys think .

Trans rights are absolutely a winning issue for Democrats, whether you care to acknowledge it or not.

As I've said before, the majority of people are not necessarily "woke" on the issue, but they know bullies when they see them. And to a normal person, the right looks like a bunch of bullies. They don't "get" trans stuff, but they don't support discrimination or cruelty. 

If republicans run on banning adult gender affirming care , yes they will lose . If they do what FL/GA/VA have done so far they will not and DeSantis/Kemp/Youngkin popularity shows this . People do not think schools should go behind parents back on this type of stuff

If DeSantis is the candidate and they make the primary campaign about what DeSantis has done on these issues they absolutely will get wrecked . The thing is they won’t cause Biden is way more politically adept than that

[Ferguson97]

Again Republicans who ran on trans issues without running on election denialism did very well in 2022. Correlation does not equal causation.

It’s just that many republicans who ran in trans issues also ran on election denialism

People who ran against abolition, the right to vote for numerous groups, segregation, anti-LGBT used to poll and do well too. Doesn’t mean it’s not immoral and won’t fail in the end.

We aren’t gonna agree on what’s moral or not when it comes to these issues so let’s stay to the topic on hand which is the electoral impact And it’s no where near as good for the left’s position as you guys think .

Trans rights are absolutely a winning issue for Democrats, whether you care to acknowledge it or not.

As I've said before, the majority of people are not necessarily "woke" on the issue, but they know bullies when they see them. And to a normal person, the right looks like a bunch of bullies. They don't "get" trans stuff, but they don't support discrimination or cruelty. 

If republicans run on banning adult gender affirming care , yes they will lose . If they do what FL/GA/VA have done so far they will not and DeSantis/Kemp/Youngkin popularity shows this . People do not think schools should go behind parents back on this type of stuff

If DeSantis is the candidate and they make the primary campaign about what DeSantis has done on these issues they absolutely will get wrecked . The thing is they won’t cause Biden is way more politically adept than that

You can't just say "look at DeSantis/Kemp/Youngkin being popular, it must be their position on trans issues" when there are just as many Governors who are popular and take the progressive stance on trans issues.

I think it's going to be like abortion. You guys can take whatever moderate position you like, but voters are not going to trust that you won't try and go further.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Again Republicans who ran on trans issues without running on election denialism did very well in 2022. Correlation does not equal causation.

It’s just that many republicans who ran in trans issues also ran on election denialism

People who ran against abolition, the right to vote for numerous groups, segregation, anti-LGBT used to poll and do well too. Doesn’t mean it’s not immoral and won’t fail in the end.

We aren’t gonna agree on what’s moral or not when it comes to these issues so let’s stay to the topic on hand which is the electoral impact And it’s no where near as good for the left’s position as you guys think .

Trans rights are absolutely a winning issue for Democrats, whether you care to acknowledge it or not.

As I've said before, the majority of people are not necessarily "woke" on the issue, but they know bullies when they see them. And to a normal person, the right looks like a bunch of bullies. They don't "get" trans stuff, but they don't support discrimination or cruelty. 

If republicans run on banning adult gender affirming care , yes they will lose . If they do what FL/GA/VA have done so far they will not and DeSantis/Kemp/Youngkin popularity shows this . People do not think schools should go behind parents back on this type of stuff

If DeSantis is the candidate and they make the primary campaign about what DeSantis has done on these issues they absolutely will get wrecked . The thing is they won’t cause Biden is way more politically adept than that

You can't just say "look at DeSantis/Kemp/Youngkin being popular, it must be their position on trans issues" when there are just as many Governors who are popular and take the progressive stance on trans issues.

I think it's going to be like abortion. You guys can take whatever moderate position you like, but voters are not going to trust that you won't try and go further.

Voters are far far more liberal on abortion than they are on this issue so it’s laughable to compare the two .

[Ferguson97]

Voters are far far more liberal on abortion than they are on this issue so it’s laughable to compare the two .

Up until the Kansas referendum, you assumed that the public was more mixed on abortion than they actually are. You admitted you were shocked at how wrong you were.

What makes you think you won't be wrong again?

[Trump Is A Maoist]

Voters are far far more liberal on abortion than they are on this issue so it’s laughable to compare the two .

MAYBE when it comes to transgender kids, but voters don't want Republicans trying to force adult trans people to do things or not do things. As the quote Ferguson posted talks about, people are TOLERANT of trans people, even if they don't LIKE them. The government forcing intolerance through passing laws rubs people the wrong way.

[GALeftist]

If republicans run on banning adult gender affirming care , yes they will lose . If they do what FL/GA/VA have done so far they will not and DeSantis/Kemp/Youngkin popularity shows this . People do not think schools should go behind parents back on this type of stuff

If DeSantis is the candidate and they make the primary campaign about what DeSantis has done on these issues they absolutely will get wrecked . The thing is they won’t cause Biden is way more politically adept than that

OK so a few things.

Number 1, Youngkin hasn't really done anything on trans issues. He issued that guidance to schools about informing parents, but it's proven unenforceable – apparently, only 10% of school boards bought onto it.

Number 2, as a Georgian, I would argue that trans issues have not been highly salient with respect to Brian Kemp. He's pretty bad on trans rights, having signed the sports ban, but he didn't make it a core part of his pitch last November or anything.

Number 3, and this is I think the deeper point that I wish the article had made, but the mere existence of governors who are electorally successful and are bad on trans rights does not prove that trans rights aren't broadly an issue where voters agree with the Democrats. The fact is that DeSantis and Youngkin are like the only two Republicans who visibly attached themselves to this stuff and maintained their success, and like I said, Youngkin is sort of ambiguous since he mostly hasn't been able to actually do anything. Not only have the vast majority of other Republicans lost on this message, the vast majority of Democrats have won on it. It's not just Beshear – John Bel Edwards is great on trans issues and remains quite popular. Given this, I think it's entirely reasonable that DeSantis and others have succeeded in spite of their stances on trans issues, not because of them; anecdotes don't disprove the broader pattern.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Voters are far far more liberal on abortion than they are on this issue so it’s laughable to compare the two .

Up until the Kansas referendum, you assumed that the public was more mixed on abortion than they actually are. You admitted you were shocked at how wrong you were.

What makes you think you won't be wrong again?

I wasn’t wrong about CRT and it’s reaction and also if you go directly of issue polls(which I disregarded completely then) , voters are far more liberal on abortion than trans issues

[Badger]

Voters are far far more liberal on abortion than they are on this issue so it’s laughable to compare the two .

Up until the Kansas referendum, you assumed that the public was more mixed on abortion than they actually are. You admitted you were shocked at how wrong you were.

What makes you think you won't be wrong again?

I wasn’t wrong about CRT and it’s reaction and also if you go directly of issue polls(which I disregarded completely then) , voters are far more liberal on abortion than trans issues

A noun, a verb, and CRT/ kissing desantis's ass / lionizing reaganomics/ random anecdotes about how his parents say sex talk is a no no.

Give beep boop credit: He is slightly more versatile than Giuliani in regurgitating his views

[OSR stands with Israel]

Voters are far far more liberal on abortion than they are on this issue so it’s laughable to compare the two .

Up until the Kansas referendum, you assumed that the public was more mixed on abortion than they actually are. You admitted you were shocked at how wrong you were.

What makes you think you won't be wrong again?

I wasn’t wrong about CRT and it’s reaction and also if you go directly of issue polls(which I disregarded completely then) , voters are far more liberal on abortion than trans issues

A noun, a verb, and CRT/ kissing desantis's ass / lionizing reaganomics/ random anecdotes about how his parents say sex talk is a no no.

Give beep boop credit: He is slightly more versatile than Giuliani in regurgitating his views

The reason I cited my parents was more or less to give personal explanation why democrats are losing support among Hispanic and Asian voters which continued in 2022 .

[Ferguson97]

Voters are far far more liberal on abortion than they are on this issue so it’s laughable to compare the two .

Up until the Kansas referendum, you assumed that the public was more mixed on abortion than they actually are. You admitted you were shocked at how wrong you were.

What makes you think you won't be wrong again?

I wasn’t wrong about CRT and it’s reaction and also if you go directly of issue polls(which I disregarded completely then) , voters are far more liberal on abortion than trans issues

The GOP's success in 2021 was gas prices and school closures due to covid, not CRT.

[Long Live The King!]

Trans issues get far too much disproportionate attention in US politics. Transgender people make up 0.5% of the US population. I am generally pro-transgender rights but the issue takes up way too much oxygen compared to more pressing concerns.

[Trump Is A Maoist]

Trans issues get far too much disproportionate attention in US politics. Transgender people make up 0.5% of the US population. I am generally pro-transgender rights but the issue takes up way too much oxygen compared to more pressing concerns.

This is by design. Republicans can't win on policy (outside of culture war policy).

[หมูเด้ง]

Florida seems to be counterargument where Republicans are winning 1984 margins on basically banning sex.

[DrScholl]

Again Republicans who ran on trans issues without running on election denialism did very well in 2022. Correlation does not equal causation.

It’s just that many republicans who ran in trans issues also ran on election denialism

People who ran against abolition, the right to vote for numerous groups, segregation, anti-LGBT used to poll and do well too. Doesn’t mean it’s not immoral and won’t fail in the end.

Hell they still do they’re called Democrats

Actually those people are Republicans. The south doesn't vote Republicans for just any reason now.

[MasterJedi]

Florida seems to be counterargument where Republicans are winning 1984 margins on basically banning sex.

Florida is about to hit a wall with Republicans though. Continual red tide due to big sugar, on the cusp of water trouble and with increased hurricanes I would not be surprised with insurers pulling out.

[7,052,770]

Trans issues get far too much disproportionate attention in US politics. Transgender people make up 0.5% of the US population. I am generally pro-transgender rights but the issue takes up way too much oxygen compared to more pressing concerns.

Every red state is passing extreme anti-trans laws that ban transition entirely for those under 18. No exceptions for non-permanent treatments, no exceptions if parents are on board, no exceptions if the teen has already started. Just full bans and forced detransitions. Of course it's going to get a lot of discussion because that's what every state with a Republican trifecta has either already done or is in the process of doing.

[Long Live The King!]

Trans issues get far too much disproportionate attention in US politics. Transgender people make up 0.5% of the US population. I am generally pro-transgender rights but the issue takes up way too much oxygen compared to more pressing concerns.

Every red state is passing extreme anti-trans laws that ban transition entirely for those under 18. No exceptions for non-permanent treatments, no exceptions if parents are on board, no exceptions if the teen has already started. Just full bans and forced detransitions. Of course it's going to get a lot of discussion because that's what every state with a Republican trifecta has either already done or is in the process of doing.

I'm not saying it's exclusively from the Democratic side. The Republicans are the most pathologically obsessed with this issue.

[7,052,770]

Trans issues get far too much disproportionate attention in US politics. Transgender people make up 0.5% of the US population. I am generally pro-transgender rights but the issue takes up way too much oxygen compared to more pressing concerns.

Every red state is passing extreme anti-trans laws that ban transition entirely for those under 18. No exceptions for non-permanent treatments, no exceptions if parents are on board, no exceptions if the teen has already started. Just full bans and forced detransitions. Of course it's going to get a lot of discussion because that's what every state with a Republican trifecta has either already done or is in the process of doing.

I'm not saying it's exclusively from the Democratic side. The Republicans are the most pathologically obsessed with this issue.

Oh yeah we're on the same page here. The Republicans barely made a peep about puberty blockers (as a reminder, either banned currently in every red state or about to be) or social transitioning back in the 1990s, 2000s, or 2010s until they suddenly decided to care thanks to Walsh and Raichik, etc., breaking the brains of a few of their politicians who decided it might be a good wedge issue.

I would say that Democrats start most of the trans discussion here, but it's in response to having so, so many news stories of outrageous behavior and one-upsmanship out of the Republicans.