What states will elect the next opposite party Governor?

[Spectator]

For the purposes of this question, I’m limiting “opposite party” states to states that were more than 5 points for the dominant party’s Presidential nominee in 2020. In that spirit, I am excluding close states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. So for this exercise, the current opposite party governorships are

For Republicans:

Vermont (Biden + 35)
Virginia (Biden +10)
New Hampshire (Biden +7)

For Democrats:

Kentucky (Trump +26)
Louisiana (Trump +19)
Kansas (Trump + 15)

My initial thoughts on this are that the most likely options would be somewhere like Oregon, South Carolina, Alaska, and Maine. I think there might be an outside shot at Mississippi later this year, but it is unclear just how exactly unpopular Tate Reeves is, although Brandon Presley has the kind of profile (on paper) that might be able to take advantage of an opportunity there.

[Ragnaroni]

For the purposes of this question, I’m limiting “opposite party” states to states that were more than 5 points for the dominant party’s Presidential nominee in 2020. In that spirit, I am excluding close states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. So for this exercise, the current opposite party governorships are

For Republicans:

Vermont (Biden + 35)
Virginia (Biden +10)
New Hampshire (Biden +7)

For Democrats:

Kentucky (Trump +26)
Louisiana (Trump +19)
Kansas (Trump + 15)

My initial thoughts on this are that the most likely options would be somewhere like Oregon, South Carolina, Alaska, and Maine. I think there might be an outside shot at Mississippi later this year, but it is unclear just how exactly unpopular Tate Reeves is, although Brandon Presley has the kind of profile (on paper) that might be able to take advantage of an opportunity there.

Vermont is lost after Phil Scott stops, Virginia actually has hope to stay R if another Youngkin R runs (and Youngkin ran the state well as it seems as of now). NH is wjatever. 

Kentucky seems to be a D hold while the other two are both flips.

New York seems close to one considering 2022 results. Maybe Iowa or Ohio could get a moderate D.

[Roll Roons]

New York seems close to one considering 2022 results.

If anything, I think NJ is more likely than NY considering Jack got closer than Zeldin and Murphy was arguably stronger than Hochul.

[Ragnaroni]

New York seems close to one considering 2022 results.

If anything, I think NJ is more likely than NY considering Jack got closer than Zeldin and Murphy was arguably stronger than Hochul.

You're referring to the 2021 election right?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

New York seems close to one considering 2022 results.

If anything, I think NJ is more likely than NY considering Jack got closer than Zeldin and Murphy was arguably stronger than Hochul.

Both are extraordinarily unlikely

[Spectator]

For the purposes of this question, I’m limiting “opposite party” states to states that were more than 5 points for the dominant party’s Presidential nominee in 2020. In that spirit, I am excluding close states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. So for this exercise, the current opposite party governorships are

For Republicans:

Vermont (Biden + 35)
Virginia (Biden +10)
New Hampshire (Biden +7)

For Democrats:

Kentucky (Trump +26)
Louisiana (Trump +19)
Kansas (Trump + 15)

My initial thoughts on this are that the most likely options would be somewhere like Oregon, South Carolina, Alaska, and Maine. I think there might be an outside shot at Mississippi later this year, but it is unclear just how exactly unpopular Tate Reeves is, although Brandon Presley has the kind of profile (on paper) that might be able to take advantage of an opportunity there.

Vermont is lost after Phil Scott stops, Virginia actually has hope to stay R if another Youngkin R runs (and Youngkin ran the state well as it seems as of now). NH is wjatever.  

Kentucky seems to be a D hold while the other two are both flips.

New York seems close to one considering 2022 results. Maybe Iowa or Ohio could get a moderate D.

I actually think aside from Kentucky being that Kansas is the most likely of the *current* opposite party governorships to be retained. Probably not happening, but the thing that gives me pause is the wild card that is Kris Kobach probably running again (being the sitting AG will give him a lot of prominence again for a primary).

Vermont is obviously a goner once Scott retires. He’s the last of his breed. It’s hard for me to see lightning strike twice in Virginia. New Hampshire seems to like Chris Sununu and no other Republican. Louisiana is Louisiana. And Beshear is probably the last Democrat we are elected in Kentucky in our lifetimes. That leaves Kansas. On top of the Kobach variable, Kansas is the only of these six states that is trending in the direction of the opposite party.

[Progressive Pessimist]

There's at least 50/50 shot that it will be us in New Jersey if Biden is still in the White House.

[kwabbit]

New York seems close to one considering 2022 results.

If anything, I think NJ is more likely than NY considering Jack got closer than Zeldin and Murphy was arguably stronger than Hochul.

Both are extraordinarily unlikely

Ciattarelli has a legitimate chance of winning in 2025 provided that Biden is in the White House. It's certainly possible that he wins if Sweeney or Gottheimer is the Democratic nominee, although I doubt he would beat Sherill or Fulop.