Donald Trump predicts he will be arrested next Tuesday, Calls for Protests

[Crumpets]

This is one of those times when the geography of the two parties is a big weakness for the GOP in terms of planning and visibility. January 6th worked logistically because there was one place (DC) where they were told to gather and had weeks to plan for it. But are we really going to see huge numbers of Republicans organically plan protests in places where they'll be visible to news media+politicians? I'm sure plenty will be able to do it, especially somewhere like DC and Mar-a-Lago, but it'll be interesting to see even if they do what kind of numbers they have and what exactly they plan to do beyond waving flags.

[Crumpets]

The thing is these indictments IMO have an underlying political motivation. They're obviously meant to martyr Trump and hand him the GOP nomination because he'll be easy to beat in 2024.

I agree.

But Democrats don't need to do that, Biden is going to win anyway so why do they risk it by adding fuel to the fire.

Someone in authority within the Democrats needs to press the off switch on unnecessary risky moves.

The Manhattan DA is an elected office. No one can tell him what to do.

You wrote it yourself: "The Manhattan DA is an elected office"

Therefore in practice he's a politician that belongs to a party.

So his Party can press the switch if they want to.

Shouldn't DAs be accountable to their voters over their party? And besides, it's not like the consequences for this decision can come only from the right. You have to imagine if word got out that a DA could have charged Trump and decided not to only because the DNC told them to, that would be the end of their elected career, full stop.

[Crumpets]

Do we think there's any chance at all that this whole thing is just Trump's imagination gone wild after someone told him "see you next Tuesday"?

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1637876817313800212

[Crumpets]

So, I generally think the "Trump was just making things up" scenario is the simplest and most likely. But one other possible scenario, (if there were originally plans to arrest Trump today or at least that his belief was somehow grounded in reality) was that maybe the DA decided to delay it to prevent whatever organized opposition might have been planned for today. Wait for the MAGAs to drive home from... wherever they were planning to meet in NYC and Palm Beach, and then arrest him. As I said, not the likeliest scenario, but one I haven't heard put forward.

[Crumpets]

Current take on conservative social media is that the DA had "exculpatory evidence" he hadn't disclosed. The sources for this all seem to have urls with "substack" in them, so... take with a grain of salt.