Are social issues the Achilles Heel for the Republican Party?

[WalterWhite]

Economic issues hurt both parties equally on a long-term basis; during a period of economic turmoil, the party in charge of the White House is always blamed for economic issues. This was seen in 1980, 1990, 1992, 2008, and many other years. However, social issues seem to favor the Democratic Party. Based on Civiqs polling, Democratic positions on social issues are more popular than Republican positions on social issues. Even when accounting for the biased data pool of Civiqs respondents, this trend holds. (Civiqs polling suggested a D+3% national environment for 2022, so with an R+3% for 2022, each poll will be adjusted rightward by 6%.)

Gun control: Favor+6% (adjusted to Favor+0%) (civiqs.com/results/gun_control)

Citizenship for illegal immigrants: Citizenship+11% (adjusted to Citizenship+5%) (civiqs.com/results/immigrants_citizenship)

Minimum wage*: Increase+53% (adjusted to Increase+47%) (civiqs.com/results/choose_minimum_wage)

Abortion: Legal+21% (adjusted to Legal+15%) (civiqs.com/results/abortion_legal)

Medicare for All: Support+8% (adjusted to Support+2%) (civiqs.com/results/medicare_for_all)

*Additionally, a minimum wage of $15/hr or higher is supported by 50% of the American population according to Civiqs, and a minimum wage of $10.10/hr or lower is supported by 39% of the American population according to Civiqs. The net support for a $15/hr or higher minimum wage is 11%, which is a 5% net support adjusted to Civiqs polling bias.

Overall, the only social issue in which Democrats do not beat Republicans is gun rights, and the two parties are tied in regards to that. The American public definitely leans in favor of the Democratic Party on social issues. With economic issues, the American public leans towards the incumbent party if the economy is good and towards the opposing party if the economy is bad. However, with social issues favoring the Democratic Party, the Republican Party will likely have great difficulty in the future winning national elections by overwhelming margins. The fact that net support for Medicare for All, a position firmly considered "left-wing" in American politics, is positive even after adjusting for the bias in Civiqs polling strongly highlights this.

This was highlighted in the 2022 midterm elections. Biden and the Democratic Party were very unpopular. The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the over 600K COVID-19 deaths during Biden's administration, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the rising oil and gas prices, and the declining stock market all reflected very poorly on Joseph Biden; moreover, polling, which was biased in favor of the Democratic Party (especially on statewide but also on nationwide levels) during the 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections, indicated a good year for the Republican Party. According to RealClearPolitics, by Election Day 2022, the generic ballot was R+2.5%. With the real House popular vote at R+2.8%, this was a marked difference from previous years (except for 2018); previous years had consistently underestimated Republican support. Additionally, the Democratic Party retained all their Senate seats and gained one. Also, the Democratic Party saw a net gain in governorships. 2022 appeared more like a neutral year than a red wave year despite the unpopularity of Joseph Biden.

Some pinpoint the surprising competitiveness of the 2022 midterm elections to weak Republican candidates; such would explain Dr. Oz's loss in Pennsylvania, Walker's loss in Georgia, and Masters' loss in Arizona. Many pinpoint this to the conservative Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health, which energized the socially liberal vote. Others pinpoint this to Donald Trump's continued presence in American politics. In 2010, George W. Bush was fairly low-profile in American politics; in 2018, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were fairly low-profile in American politics; however, in 2022 (and 2023), Trump was and is still a major political player.

However, on a deeper level, the Republican Party's struggle with social issues reflects all of these. The Supreme Court's conservatism was why Roe v. Wade was overturned. Dr. Oz took a strong rightward shift during his campaign; before campaigning to be Pennsylvania's next Senator, Dr. Oz was a fairly moderate Republican. Walker and Masters were definitely very right-wing throughout both of their campaigns. Additionally, the weakness of Republican candidates does not explain Lake's loss in Arizona. Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake made Hobbs appear cowardly to many, yet she still won; Lake's poor candidate quality did not kill her campaign, but her dogmatic conservatism ideology did. Donald Trump's continued presence in American politics solidifies the Republican Party's devotion to his brand of conservatism: populist paleo-conservatism. This conservatism is why, under similar political environments, Democrats generally perform better than Republicans; Biden's approval in November 2022 was similar to Trump's in November 2018; yet 2018 had a D+8.6% national environment, and 2022 had an R+2.8% national environment.

Because social issues will almost invariably favor the Democratic Party (if Republicans do not make a major shift in their platform), expect a mostly neutral environment when economic issues benefit the Republican Party,  a Democratic-favoring environment when economic issues benefit neither party, and a strongly Democratic-favoring environment when economic issues benefit the Democratic Party. These issues will only compound if the Republican Party continues to remain staunchly conservative because the general trend in cultural attitudes has historically been and will continue to be leftward. Currently, social issues are the Achilles Heel for the Republican Party; the Republican Party will continue to be unable to win overwhelming majorities in the House, Senate, or Presidency as long as they continue to hold unpopular attitudes towards social issues. If Republicans want to win big in the future, they should look to Republicans like Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan, not Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott.

[MarkD]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

[WalterWhite]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

You cannot deny, however, that conservative viewpoints are becoming increasing unpopular. This is the reason 2022 was not an overwhelming landslide for the Republican Party; this is the reason Republicans lost many winnable races. (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia come to mind.) The fact that Medicare For All, a program that is viewed as very progressive, has more support than opposition (even accounting for Civiqs polling bias) shows that conservatism is a hinderance for the Republican Party. If the GOP wants to maintain relevance in the future, they need to adopt more libertarian positions; the economic debate between fiscal conservatism and liberalism will always exist, but society invariably moves leftward from a cultural standpoint.

[OSR stands with Israel]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

You cannot deny, however, that conservative viewpoints are becoming increasing unpopular. This is the reason 2022 was not an overwhelming landslide for the Republican Party; this is the reason Republicans lost many winnable races. (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia come to mind.) The fact that Medicare For All, a program that is viewed as very progressive, has more support than opposition (even accounting for Civiqs polling bias) shows that conservatism is a hinderance for the Republican Party. If the GOP wants to maintain relevance in the future, they need to adopt more libertarian positions; the economic debate between fiscal conservatism and liberalism will always exist, but society invariably moves leftward from a cultural standpoint.

Have you seen how American libertarians are though. Their economic positions would make the gop unelectable

[WalterWhite]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

You cannot deny, however, that conservative viewpoints are becoming increasing unpopular. This is the reason 2022 was not an overwhelming landslide for the Republican Party; this is the reason Republicans lost many winnable races. (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia come to mind.) The fact that Medicare For All, a program that is viewed as very progressive, has more support than opposition (even accounting for Civiqs polling bias) shows that conservatism is a hinderance for the Republican Party. If the GOP wants to maintain relevance in the future, they need to adopt more libertarian positions; the economic debate between fiscal conservatism and liberalism will always exist, but society invariably moves leftward from a cultural standpoint.

Have you seen how American libertarians are though. Their economic positions would make the gop unelectable

I am definitely NOT talking about the New Hampshire Libertarian Party (the ones that support child labor and abolishing the Civil Rights Act); those would certainly be unelectable. However, more moderate libertarians (i.e. Republicans with economic views aligning with the mainstream GOP but social views aligning with the mainstream Democratic Party) would be very electable, and these libertarians will likely be the future of the GOP if they want to be able to win elections by large margins in the future (they want to; all politicians want to).

[OSR stands with Israel]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

You cannot deny, however, that conservative viewpoints are becoming increasing unpopular. This is the reason 2022 was not an overwhelming landslide for the Republican Party; this is the reason Republicans lost many winnable races. (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia come to mind.) The fact that Medicare For All, a program that is viewed as very progressive, has more support than opposition (even accounting for Civiqs polling bias) shows that conservatism is a hinderance for the Republican Party. If the GOP wants to maintain relevance in the future, they need to adopt more libertarian positions; the economic debate between fiscal conservatism and liberalism will always exist, but society invariably moves leftward from a cultural standpoint.

Have you seen how American libertarians are though. Their economic positions would make the gop unelectable

I am definitely NOT talking about the New Hampshire Libertarian Party (the ones that support child labor and abolishing the Civil Rights Act); those would certainly be unelectable. However, more moderate libertarians (i.e. Republicans with economic views aligning with the mainstream GOP but social views aligning with the mainstream Democratic Party) would be very electable, and these libertarians will likely be the future of the GOP if they want to be able to win elections by large margins in the future (they want to; all politicians want to).

There aren’t actually that many people who hold Republican Economic Views/Dem Social views as people on the internet think . People who tend to hold Democratic social views also tend to hold  economic views similar to democrats as the similarity between both those view points is they view society to be institutionally unfair/oppressive and believe the government or institutions should try to correct it .

Basically they are strongly driven by the equality/equity principle

[RINO Tom]

Social issues are now framed by extremes in both parties. 

Per Gallup, 78% of Republicans do NOT support total abortion bans.  43% of Democrats support restricting abortion in at least some circumstances.  Over 3 in 10 Democrats literally live in a household with a gun owner, and 90% of Republicans support background checks for ALL gun purchases ... hell, 65% of Republicans support both raising the legal age of purchasing a gun AND a 30-day waiting period.

Blah, blah, blah - the point is, the GOP's stance on "social issues" isn't hurting it any more than the Democrats' stances are hurting that party ... most people do not care about the details.

[WalterWhite]

Social issues are now framed by extremes in both parties.  

Per Gallup, 78% of Republicans do NOT support total abortion bans.  43% of Democrats support restricting abortion in at least some circumstances.  Over 3 in 10 Democrats literally live in a household with a gun owner, and 90% of Republicans support background checks for ALL gun purchases ... hell, 65% of Republicans support both raising the legal age of purchasing a gun AND a 30-day waiting period.

Blah, blah, blah - the point is, the GOP's stance on "social issues" isn't hurting it any more than the Democrats' stances are hurting that party ... most people do not care about the details.

This is not about the extremes. Even factoring more moderate positions on abortion, for instance, the net result is still Legal+21% (adjusted to Legal+15%); by "legal", I mean legal in all or most cases; you could still support some limited abortion restrictions and still be counted as pro-choice, and you do not have to support a total ban on abortion to be counted as pro-life. Also, this does not account for the fact that Medicare for All has a net positive approval rating (even adjusting for Civiqs polling bias); the fact that a measure seen as highly progressive has a net positive approval rating among the general public shows that the GOP's social platform is unpopular.

The GOP's stances on social issues definitely hurt them in 2022. With how badly the economy was doing (in addition to Biden's low approval rating and foreign policy issues abroad), I firmly believe 2022 would have been a red wave year if social issues were not a major factor that cycle.

[EastwoodS]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

You cannot deny, however, that conservative viewpoints are becoming increasing unpopular. This is the reason 2022 was not an overwhelming landslide for the Republican Party; this is the reason Republicans lost many winnable races. (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia come to mind.) The fact that Medicare For All, a program that is viewed as very progressive, has more support than opposition (even accounting for Civiqs polling bias) shows that conservatism is a hinderance for the Republican Party. If the GOP wants to maintain relevance in the future, they need to adopt more libertarian positions; the economic debate between fiscal conservatism and liberalism will always exist, but society invariably moves leftward from a cultural standpoint.

Have you seen how American libertarians are though. Their economic positions would make the gop unelectable

oh yeah, proof? and McCain and Romney were not Libertarians so dont even try it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

You cannot deny, however, that conservative viewpoints are becoming increasing unpopular. This is the reason 2022 was not an overwhelming landslide for the Republican Party; this is the reason Republicans lost many winnable races. (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia come to mind.) The fact that Medicare For All, a program that is viewed as very progressive, has more support than opposition (even accounting for Civiqs polling bias) shows that conservatism is a hinderance for the Republican Party. If the GOP wants to maintain relevance in the future, they need to adopt more libertarian positions; the economic debate between fiscal conservatism and liberalism will always exist, but society invariably moves leftward from a cultural standpoint.

Have you seen how American libertarians are though. Their economic positions would make the gop unelectable

oh yeah, proof? and McCain and Romney were not Libertarians so dont even try it.

American Libertarians are in favor of privatizing Medicare/Medicaid/social security, eliminating stuff like the FDA, eliminating the minimum wage all together etc .

Their foreign policy positions also make Trump look like a neocon as well given they are completely isolationist

[EastwoodS]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

You cannot deny, however, that conservative viewpoints are becoming increasing unpopular. This is the reason 2022 was not an overwhelming landslide for the Republican Party; this is the reason Republicans lost many winnable races. (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia come to mind.) The fact that Medicare For All, a program that is viewed as very progressive, has more support than opposition (even accounting for Civiqs polling bias) shows that conservatism is a hinderance for the Republican Party. If the GOP wants to maintain relevance in the future, they need to adopt more libertarian positions; the economic debate between fiscal conservatism and liberalism will always exist, but society invariably moves leftward from a cultural standpoint.

Have you seen how American libertarians are though. Their economic positions would make the gop unelectable

oh yeah, proof? and McCain and Romney were not Libertarians so dont even try it.

American Libertarians are in favor of privatizing Medicare/Medicaid/social security, eliminating stuff like the FDA, eliminating the minimum wage all together etc .

Their foreign policy positions also make Trump look like a neocon as well given they are completely isolationist

all this stuff to me would be more economic. I'm talking marriage, weed, abortion, all that stuff

[EastwoodS]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

You cannot deny, however, that conservative viewpoints are becoming increasing unpopular. This is the reason 2022 was not an overwhelming landslide for the Republican Party; this is the reason Republicans lost many winnable races. (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia come to mind.) The fact that Medicare For All, a program that is viewed as very progressive, has more support than opposition (even accounting for Civiqs polling bias) shows that conservatism is a hinderance for the Republican Party. If the GOP wants to maintain relevance in the future, they need to adopt more libertarian positions; the economic debate between fiscal conservatism and liberalism will always exist, but society invariably moves leftward from a cultural standpoint.

Have you seen how American libertarians are though. Their economic positions would make the gop unelectable

oh yeah, proof? and McCain and Romney were not Libertarians so dont even try it.

American Libertarians are in favor of privatizing Medicare/Medicaid/social security, eliminating stuff like the FDA, eliminating the minimum wage all together etc .

Their foreign policy positions also make Trump look like a neocon as well given they are completely isolationist

Good, stop taking my damn tax dollars that I want to save more on my life, not some stupid country half way around the world I don't care about. Sounds very reasonable and popular.

[WalterWhite]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

You cannot deny, however, that conservative viewpoints are becoming increasing unpopular. This is the reason 2022 was not an overwhelming landslide for the Republican Party; this is the reason Republicans lost many winnable races. (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia come to mind.) The fact that Medicare For All, a program that is viewed as very progressive, has more support than opposition (even accounting for Civiqs polling bias) shows that conservatism is a hinderance for the Republican Party. If the GOP wants to maintain relevance in the future, they need to adopt more libertarian positions; the economic debate between fiscal conservatism and liberalism will always exist, but society invariably moves leftward from a cultural standpoint.

Have you seen how American libertarians are though. Their economic positions would make the gop unelectable

oh yeah, proof? and McCain and Romney were not Libertarians so dont even try it.

American Libertarians are in favor of privatizing Medicare/Medicaid/social security, eliminating stuff like the FDA, eliminating the minimum wage all together etc .

Their foreign policy positions also make Trump look like a neocon as well given they are completely isolationist

Good, stop taking my damn tax dollars that I want to save more on my life, not some stupid country half way around the world I don't care about. Sounds very reasonable and popular.

Indeed it is popular. Per Civiqs polling, Isolationism+44% is the margin of support for a more isolationist foreign policy than we currently have, which benefits the Democrats, who are more isolationist than Republicans. Adjusting for Civiqs polling bias gives Isolationism+38%, which is still an overwhelming margin. This further explains why the GOP should adopt more libertarian positions if they want to maintain electoral relevance in the future.

Source: civiqs.com/results/overseas_problems

[OSR stands with Israel]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

You cannot deny, however, that conservative viewpoints are becoming increasing unpopular. This is the reason 2022 was not an overwhelming landslide for the Republican Party; this is the reason Republicans lost many winnable races. (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia come to mind.) The fact that Medicare For All, a program that is viewed as very progressive, has more support than opposition (even accounting for Civiqs polling bias) shows that conservatism is a hinderance for the Republican Party. If the GOP wants to maintain relevance in the future, they need to adopt more libertarian positions; the economic debate between fiscal conservatism and liberalism will always exist, but society invariably moves leftward from a cultural standpoint.

Have you seen how American libertarians are though. Their economic positions would make the gop unelectable

oh yeah, proof? and McCain and Romney were not Libertarians so dont even try it.

American Libertarians are in favor of privatizing Medicare/Medicaid/social security, eliminating stuff like the FDA, eliminating the minimum wage all together etc .

Their foreign policy positions also make Trump look like a neocon as well given they are completely isolationist

Good, stop taking my damn tax dollars that I want to save more on my life, not some stupid country half way around the world I don't care about. Sounds very reasonable and popular.

As the world’s super power we are the only nation on the planet who have the capability to check the power and influence of hostile powers like Russia and Communist China .

The republicans should be advocating for building a NATO in the pacific to reduce China’s influence . This probably will happen regardless which party wins as while both parties may use isolationist rhetoric to pander to certain voters when they are out of power , once they are in power they will generally follow the bipartisan foreign policy consensus .

Even Trump for all his isolationist rhetoric was far more interventionist in practice than he was an isolationist.

[BG-NY]

America's conservative party is always going to try to conserve traditional moral values, even if doing so isn't politically popular. Somebody ought to try to conserve them!

You cannot deny, however, that conservative viewpoints are becoming increasing unpopular. This is the reason 2022 was not an overwhelming landslide for the Republican Party; this is the reason Republicans lost many winnable races. (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia come to mind.) The fact that Medicare For All, a program that is viewed as very progressive, has more support than opposition (even accounting for Civiqs polling bias) shows that conservatism is a hinderance for the Republican Party. If the GOP wants to maintain relevance in the future, they need to adopt more libertarian positions; the economic debate between fiscal conservatism and liberalism will always exist, but society invariably moves leftward from a cultural standpoint.

Have you seen how American libertarians are though. Their economic positions would make the gop unelectable

oh yeah, proof? and McCain and Romney were not Libertarians so dont even try it.

American Libertarians are in favor of privatizing Medicare/Medicaid/social security, eliminating stuff like the FDA, eliminating the minimum wage all together etc .

Their foreign policy positions also make Trump look like a neocon as well given they are completely isolationist

Good, stop taking my damn tax dollars that I want to save more on my life, not some stupid country half way around the world I don't care about. Sounds very reasonable and popular.

We agree!

[Ontario Tory]

I think these data somewhat disregard immigration (as a whole, not just citizenship for illegal immigrants), which is a social issue that tends to benefit the GOP. A plurality of Americans (nearly 40%) want immigration decreased, as of 2022. Interestingly, in the last full year of Trump's Presidency, 2020, the % of people who said they want immigration decreased were at record lows (28%) and the % people who want immigration to increase were a record highs (34%). Immigration was a huge part of the reason behind Trump's victory in 2016, so I assume the public feels somewhat more comfortable with immigration when it appears to be under control, which is largely the impression Trump gave.

Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/395882/immigration-views-remain-mixed-highly-partisan.aspx

Additionally, the original post hypothesizes that the GOP should look to run more socially liberal Republicans like Larry Hogan to run as the nominee in a general election, and while I think it wouldn't hurt to try this strategy, someone like Larry Hogan or Chris Sununu would never be able to win a primary...

[EastwoodS]

I think these data somewhat disregard immigration (as a whole, not just citizenship for illegal immigrants), which is a social issue that tends to benefit the GOP. A plurality of Americans (nearly 40%) want immigration decreased, as of 2022. Interestingly, in the last full year of Trump's Presidency, 2020, the % of people who said they want immigration decreased were at record lows (28%) and the % people who want immigration to increase were a record highs (34%). Immigration was a huge part of the reason behind Trump's victory in 2016, so I assume the public feels somewhat more comfortable with immigration when it appears to be under control, which is largely the impression Trump gave.

Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/395882/immigration-views-remain-mixed-highly-partisan.aspx

Additionally, the original post hypothesizes that the GOP should look to run more socially liberal Republicans like Larry Hogan to run as the nominee in a general election, and while I think it wouldn't hurt to try this strategy, someone like Larry Hogan or Chris Sununu would never be able to win a primary...

I honestly have no problem admitting that the GOP primary voter base is far too stupid and addle-brained to put together the needed brain cells to elect a winnable candidate. This is why we need to get rid of primary elections and just let the pros pick the candidates, behind closed doors, instead.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Someone on here once posted a survey of the single trait the voters disliked the most about the Democratic and Republican parties in each Presidential election year going back to the 1960s; while the criticisms of the Democrats varied quite a lot over the decades, the single trait that voters disliked about the Republican Party was that they were the party of the rich. Like, in almost every single year, with only a handful of exceptions.


So no, it's more their economic elitism and agenda of tax cuts for the rich that seems to be their (most consistent) weakness. I think on social issues they can actually thread that needle successfullly, but they need to do so very specifically (e.g. their stance on guns actually seems to reap dividends, immigration, crime, etc.). They have clearly lost the culture war on LGBT stuff, and have handled abortion very badly. They can get away with chipping away at abortion rights on the margins, but full-blown bans like what we are seeing in the aftermath of Dobbs will generate a severe backlash.

They could have stuck with "we just want 12 or 15 week abortion limits" and their normal rhetoric on guns and crime + a dash of populism about the Hollywood/coastal elites, but their drive to totally ban abortion + renewed homo-/transphobia has convinced a lot of people that the GOP is an extremist party.

The problem is not their conservative values, it's that they come off as f**king crazy and choose the stupidest way to go about those values.

[Ontario Tory]

I think these data somewhat disregard immigration (as a whole, not just citizenship for illegal immigrants), which is a social issue that tends to benefit the GOP. A plurality of Americans (nearly 40%) want immigration decreased, as of 2022. Interestingly, in the last full year of Trump's Presidency, 2020, the % of people who said they want immigration decreased were at record lows (28%) and the % people who want immigration to increase were a record highs (34%). Immigration was a huge part of the reason behind Trump's victory in 2016, so I assume the public feels somewhat more comfortable with immigration when it appears to be under control, which is largely the impression Trump gave.

Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/395882/immigration-views-remain-mixed-highly-partisan.aspx

Additionally, the original post hypothesizes that the GOP should look to run more socially liberal Republicans like Larry Hogan to run as the nominee in a general election, and while I think it wouldn't hurt to try this strategy, someone like Larry Hogan or Chris Sununu would never be able to win a primary...

I honestly have no problem admitting that the GOP primary voter base is far too stupid and addle-brained to put together the needed brain cells to elect a winnable candidate. This is why we need to get rid of primary elections and just let the pros pick the candidates, behind closed doors, instead.

So you basically want the DNC superdelegate system on steroids in the RNC? Idk, that sounds like it will result in someone getting January 6ed...they already revolt when they *think* an election is rigged, what will happen when the election is *actually* rigged?

[WalterWhite]

Someone on here once posted a survey of the single train the voters disliked the most about the Democratic and Republican parties in each Presidential election year going back to the 1960s; while the criticisms of the Democrats varied quite a lot over the decades, the single trait that voters disliked about the Republican Party was that they were the party of the rich. Like, in almost every single year, with only a handful of exceptions.


So no, it's more their economic elitism and agenda of tax cuts for the rich that seems to be their (most consistent) weakness. I think on social issues they can actually thread that needle successfullly, but they need to do so very specifically (e.g. their stance on guns actually seems to reap dividends, immigration, crime, etc.). They have clearly lost the culture war on LGBT stuff, and have handled abortion very badly. They can get away with chipping away at abortion rights on the margins, but full-blown bans like what we are seeing in the aftermath of Dobbs will generate a severe backlash.

They could have stuck with "we just want 12 or 15 week abortion limits" and their normal rhetoric on guns and crime + a dash of populism about the Hollywood/coastal elites, but their drive to totally ban abortion + renewed homo-/transphobia has convinced a lot of people that the GOP is an extremist party.

The problem is not their conservative values, it's that they come off as f**king crazy and choose the stupidest way to go about those values.

Crime (specifically the death penalty) seems to be the ONLY issue in which Republicans have the upper hand. Immigration is an issue in which Democrats have the upper hand; gun rights is even; even MEDICARE FOR ALL is supported more than it is opposed. The GOP's stances on social issues across the board is less popular than the Democrat's.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Healthcare and minimum wage are economic issues, not social ones. Also you have to keep in mind while gun control may be tied, the only people who vote because of that issue are massively conservative. No one votes Dem because of gun control, but there is a massive audience of single issue conservatives/libertarians who vote R because of that issue. That's why I've always believed Dems should stop campaigning on it, there is not a single voter out there who votes Dem because of gun control that otherwise won't, but their position alienates a large amount of voters.

[Cyrusman]

Someone on here once posted a survey of the single train the voters disliked the most about the Democratic and Republican parties in each Presidential election year going back to the 1960s; while the criticisms of the Democrats varied quite a lot over the decades, the single trait that voters disliked about the Republican Party was that they were the party of the rich. Like, in almost every single year, with only a handful of exceptions.


So no, it's more their economic elitism and agenda of tax cuts for the rich that seems to be their (most consistent) weakness. I think on social issues they can actually thread that needle successfullly, but they need to do so very specifically (e.g. their stance on guns actually seems to reap dividends, immigration, crime, etc.). They have clearly lost the culture war on LGBT stuff, and have handled abortion very badly. They can get away with chipping away at abortion rights on the margins, but full-blown bans like what we are seeing in the aftermath of Dobbs will generate a severe backlash.

They could have stuck with "we just want 12 or 15 week abortion limits" and their normal rhetoric on guns and crime + a dash of populism about the Hollywood/coastal elites, but their drive to totally ban abortion + renewed homo-/transphobia has convinced a lot of people that the GOP is an extremist party.

The problem is not their conservative values, it's that they come off as f**king crazy and choose the stupidest way to go about those values.

Crime (specifically the death penalty) seems to be the ONLY issue in which Republicans have the upper hand. Immigration is an issue in which Democrats have the upper hand; gun rights is even; even MEDICARE FOR ALL is supported more than it is opposed. The GOP's stances on social issues across the board is less popular than the Democrat's.

Democrats absolutely do not have the upper hand in immigration. People do not support letting undocumented immigrants  into the country who lack a greencard, Visa, or approved aslyum case. Today's Democrats are okay with very weak border laws. Legal immigration, yes of course people support, but not just letting anyone in just cause they want a better life.

Your correct on the social issues though.

[WalterWhite]

Someone on here once posted a survey of the single train the voters disliked the most about the Democratic and Republican parties in each Presidential election year going back to the 1960s; while the criticisms of the Democrats varied quite a lot over the decades, the single trait that voters disliked about the Republican Party was that they were the party of the rich. Like, in almost every single year, with only a handful of exceptions.


So no, it's more their economic elitism and agenda of tax cuts for the rich that seems to be their (most consistent) weakness. I think on social issues they can actually thread that needle successfullly, but they need to do so very specifically (e.g. their stance on guns actually seems to reap dividends, immigration, crime, etc.). They have clearly lost the culture war on LGBT stuff, and have handled abortion very badly. They can get away with chipping away at abortion rights on the margins, but full-blown bans like what we are seeing in the aftermath of Dobbs will generate a severe backlash.

They could have stuck with "we just want 12 or 15 week abortion limits" and their normal rhetoric on guns and crime + a dash of populism about the Hollywood/coastal elites, but their drive to totally ban abortion + renewed homo-/transphobia has convinced a lot of people that the GOP is an extremist party.

The problem is not their conservative values, it's that they come off as f**king crazy and choose the stupidest way to go about those values.

Crime (specifically the death penalty) seems to be the ONLY issue in which Republicans have the upper hand. Immigration is an issue in which Democrats have the upper hand; gun rights is even; even MEDICARE FOR ALL is supported more than it is opposed. The GOP's stances on social issues across the board is less popular than the Democrat's.

Democrats absolutely do not have the upper hand in immigration. People do not support letting undocumented immigrants  into the country who lack a greencard, Visa, or approved aslyum case. Today's Democrats are okay with very weak border laws. Legal immigration, yes of course people support, but not just letting anyone in just cause they want a better life.

Your correct on the social issues though.

The Civiqs polling seems to say otherwise, even AFTER adjusted for Civiqs polling bias.

civiqs.com/results/immigrants_citizenship

[Cyrusman]

Economic issues hurt both parties equally on a long-term basis; during a period of economic turmoil, the party in charge of the White House is always blamed for economic issues. This was seen in 1980, 1990, 1992, 2008, and many other years. However, social issues seem to favor the Democratic Party. Based on Civiqs polling, Democratic positions on social issues are more popular than Republican positions on social issues. Even when accounting for the biased data pool of Civiqs respondents, this trend holds. (Civiqs polling suggested a D+3% national environment for 2022, so with an R+3% for 2022, each poll will be adjusted rightward by 6%.)

Gun control: Favor+6% (adjusted to Favor+0%) (civiqs.com/results/gun_control)

Citizenship for illegal immigrants: Citizenship+11% (adjusted to Citizenship+5%) (civiqs.com/results/immigrants_citizenship)

Minimum wage*: Increase+53% (adjusted to Increase+47%) (civiqs.com/results/choose_minimum_wage)

Abortion: Legal+21% (adjusted to Legal+15%) (civiqs.com/results/abortion_legal)

Medicare for All: Support+8% (adjusted to Support+2%) (civiqs.com/results/medicare_for_all)

*Additionally, a minimum wage of $15/hr or higher is supported by 50% of the American population according to Civiqs, and a minimum wage of $10.10/hr or lower is supported by 39% of the American population according to Civiqs. The net support for a $15/hr or higher minimum wage is 11%, which is a 5% net support adjusted to Civiqs polling bias.

Overall, the only social issue in which Democrats do not beat Republicans is gun rights, and the two parties are tied in regards to that. The American public definitely leans in favor of the Democratic Party on social issues. With economic issues, the American public leans towards the incumbent party if the economy is good and towards the opposing party if the economy is bad. However, with social issues favoring the Democratic Party, the Republican Party will likely have great difficulty in the future winning national elections by overwhelming margins. The fact that net support for Medicare for All, a position firmly considered "left-wing" in American politics, is positive even after adjusting for the bias in Civiqs polling strongly highlights this.

This was highlighted in the 2022 midterm elections. Biden and the Democratic Party were very unpopular. The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the over 600K COVID-19 deaths during Biden's administration, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the rising oil and gas prices, and the declining stock market all reflected very poorly on Joseph Biden; moreover, polling, which was biased in favor of the Democratic Party (especially on statewide but also on nationwide levels) during the 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections, indicated a good year for the Republican Party. According to RealClearPolitics, by Election Day 2022, the generic ballot was R+2.5%. With the real House popular vote at R+2.8%, this was a marked difference from previous years (except for 2018); previous years had consistently underestimated Republican support. Additionally, the Democratic Party retained all their Senate seats and gained one. Also, the Democratic Party saw a net gain in governorships. 2022 appeared more like a neutral year than a red wave year despite the unpopularity of Joseph Biden.

Some pinpoint the surprising competitiveness of the 2022 midterm elections to weak Republican candidates; such would explain Dr. Oz's loss in Pennsylvania, Walker's loss in Georgia, and Masters' loss in Arizona. Many pinpoint this to the conservative Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health, which energized the socially liberal vote. Others pinpoint this to Donald Trump's continued presence in American politics. In 2010, George W. Bush was fairly low-profile in American politics; in 2018, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were fairly low-profile in American politics; however, in 2022 (and 2023), Trump was and is still a major political player.

However, on a deeper level, the Republican Party's struggle with social issues reflects all of these. The Supreme Court's conservatism was why Roe v. Wade was overturned. Dr. Oz took a strong rightward shift during his campaign; before campaigning to be Pennsylvania's next Senator, Dr. Oz was a fairly moderate Republican. Walker and Masters were definitely very right-wing throughout both of their campaigns. Additionally, the weakness of Republican candidates does not explain Lake's loss in Arizona. Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake made Hobbs appear cowardly to many, yet she still won; Lake's poor candidate quality did not kill her campaign, but her dogmatic conservatism ideology did. Donald Trump's continued presence in American politics solidifies the Republican Party's devotion to his brand of conservatism: populist paleo-conservatism. This conservatism is why, under similar political environments, Democrats generally perform better than Republicans; Biden's approval in November 2022 was similar to Trump's in November 2018; yet 2018 had a D+8.6% national environment, and 2022 had an R+2.8% national environment.

Because social issues will almost invariably favor the Democratic Party (if Republicans do not make a major shift in their platform), expect a mostly neutral environment when economic issues benefit the Republican Party,  a Democratic-favoring environment when economic issues benefit neither party, and a strongly Democratic-favoring environment when economic issues benefit the Democratic Party. These issues will only compound if the Republican Party continues to remain staunchly conservative because the general trend in cultural attitudes has historically been and will continue to be leftward. Currently, social issues are the Achilles Heel for the Republican Party; the Republican Party will continue to be unable to win overwhelming majorities in the House, Senate, or Presidency as long as they continue to hold unpopular attitudes towards social issues. If Republicans want to win big in the future, they should look to Republicans like Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan, not Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott.

Regarding your last sentence, what separates Charlie Baker from a a moderate Democrats? Serious question.

I don't think Baker could win anywhere outside of the northeast or west coast. Also Abbott and Desantis have fared very well in their states. That would be like saying the Democrats should not look to Gavin Newsom.

[Cyrusman]

Someone on here once posted a survey of the single train the voters disliked the most about the Democratic and Republican parties in each Presidential election year going back to the 1960s; while the criticisms of the Democrats varied quite a lot over the decades, the single trait that voters disliked about the Republican Party was that they were the party of the rich. Like, in almost every single year, with only a handful of exceptions.


So no, it's more their economic elitism and agenda of tax cuts for the rich that seems to be their (most consistent) weakness. I think on social issues they can actually thread that needle successfullly, but they need to do so very specifically (e.g. their stance on guns actually seems to reap dividends, immigration, crime, etc.). They have clearly lost the culture war on LGBT stuff, and have handled abortion very badly. They can get away with chipping away at abortion rights on the margins, but full-blown bans like what we are seeing in the aftermath of Dobbs will generate a severe backlash.

They could have stuck with "we just want 12 or 15 week abortion limits" and their normal rhetoric on guns and crime + a dash of populism about the Hollywood/coastal elites, but their drive to totally ban abortion + renewed homo-/transphobia has convinced a lot of people that the GOP is an extremist party.

The problem is not their conservative values, it's that they come off as f**king crazy and choose the stupidest way to go about those values.

Crime (specifically the death penalty) seems to be the ONLY issue in which Republicans have the upper hand. Immigration is an issue in which Democrats have the upper hand; gun rights is even; even MEDICARE FOR ALL is supported more than it is opposed. The GOP's stances on social issues across the board is less popular than the Democrat's.

Democrats absolutely do not have the upper hand in immigration. People do not support letting undocumented immigrants  into the country who lack a greencard, Visa, or approved aslyum case. Today's Democrats are okay with very weak border laws. Legal immigration, yes of course people support, but not just letting anyone in just cause they want a better life.

Your correct on the social issues though.

The Civiqs polling seems to say otherwise, even AFTER adjusted for Civiqs polling bias.

civiqs.com/results/immigrants_citizenship

It's one poll and that poll is referring to those that have been here for some time, so no, most people aren't going to go out of their way to deport a cook, or lady who cleans the hotel rooms who has been here for 5-10 years, but most Americans do not support weak border laws, and just letting anyone new in who lacks a visa, greencard, work permit, etc..
Also apparently that poll is as close to even today as it has been in 6 years which I find interesting.