If Trump is indicted how does it affect his chances in the general?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think an indictment over the Stormy Daniels' payoff actually helps him a little. It's old news and it seems like a reach to make it a significant charge, and it gets the shock-impact of "Trump was indicted" out of the way long before the election.  So, like Barr kneecapping the Mueller Report, it actually helps by lessening the impact of potentially more serious charges relating to document mishandling, Georgia, and his attempted coup.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think an indictment over the Stormy Daniels' payoff actually helps him a little. It's old news and it seems like a reach to make it a significant charge, and it gets the shock-impact of "Trump was indicted" out of the way long before the election.  So, like Barr kneecapping the Mueller Report, it actually helps by lessening the impact of potentially more serious charges relating to document mishandling, Georgia, and his attempted coup.

Replying to myself to add one caveat:

If he flees arrest, it will very likely destroy him. I figured he knew that and would accept what little jail time he might face from arrest as a sort of martyrdom, but the idea of going to jail really seems to have Trump pulling out all the stops, so the chance of him trying to flee is non-zero.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Honestly, him getting sidelined for like six weeks when the trial actually happens may be more significant than any reaction to the actual charges. If he gets indicted now, he'd be on trial likely at the end of 2023/start of 2024, at the height of the primaries. Imagine if he can't go to IA/NH/NV/SC because he's stuck in Manhattan at his court appearances every day.

Imagine if a Senate trial for a President was held right before the Iowa caucus to help someone not in the Senate and hurt one or more sitting Senators. Of course that would never happen.

Please enlighten us on how those nefarious Democrats forced Trump to try and blackmail Zelensky in July 2019 to make sure his first impeachment would fall on the Iowa caucuses! Or are you suggesting Trump is a Democratic Deep State plant?

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