If Trump is indicted how does it affect his chances in the general?

[Tekken_Guy]

How does a Trump indictment affect his chance in the general?

[NewYorkExpress]

Depends on who is indicting him. I don't think it helps him if it's state level, but if the Feds do so, it could spiral into retaliatory assassinations of at least Garland (and possibly both Biden/Harris) with the full support of the Republican Party (which, I think is the main reason the Justice Department will not indict Trump. Merrick Garland would rather not be followed around by armed guards everywhere he goes, and he'd certainly rather not be murdered by a MAGA Republican if he ever goes out in public).

[Suburbia]

Depends on who is indicting him. I don't think it helps him if it's state level, but if the Feds do so, it could spiral into retaliatory assassinations of at least Garland (and possibly both Biden/Harris) with the full support of the Republican Party (which, I think is the main reason the Justice Department will not indict Trump. Merrick Garland would rather not be followed around by armed guards everywhere he goes, and he'd certainly rather not be murdered by a MAGA Republican if he ever goes out in public).

This. Dems don't realize how crazy Trump supporters are. This is facts.

[emailking]

He's most likely getting indicted in New York next week. And indictments in GA and by DOJ are likely as well in the coming months. Unless he gets acquitted of one or more of them before the election, I think it hurt him a lot. But it will be a boost in the primary.

[FloridaMan1845]

Locks down the primary for Trump, and supercharges R turnout. However, would that be enough to stop the cratering with everyone else?

[Tekken_Guy]

Locks down the primary for Trump, and supercharges R turnout. However, would that be enough to stop the cratering with everyone else?

How does it supercharge R turnout? Is there any room for it to grow?

[Devils30]

Locks down the primary for Trump, and supercharges R turnout. However, would that be enough to stop the cratering with everyone else?

How does it supercharge R turnout? Is there any room for it to grow?

I think mostly Rs vastly underestimate how finished Trump 2016-Biden 2020-Dem Senate 2022 are with him.

[LabourJersey]

Depends on who is indicting him. I don't think it helps him if it's state level, but if the Feds do so, it could spiral into retaliatory assassinations of at least Garland (and possibly both Biden/Harris) with the full support of the Republican Party (which, I think is the main reason the Justice Department will not indict Trump. Merrick Garland would rather not be followed around by armed guards everywhere he goes, and he'd certainly rather not be murdered by a MAGA Republican if he ever goes out in public).

I basically agree with this. It's a lot easier to claim "Sleepy Joe and the Swamp are after me!" if its the Feds. If it's New York, it won't have the same fervor in that case.

That's why indictments from NY and GA are on balance better than federal indictments. I think it will be neutral in terms of the primaries (he's still a favorite) but hurt him somewhat in the general (lowering his already low chances of a second term).

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think an indictment over the Stormy Daniels' payoff actually helps him a little. It's old news and it seems like a reach to make it a significant charge, and it gets the shock-impact of "Trump was indicted" out of the way long before the election.  So, like Barr kneecapping the Mueller Report, it actually helps by lessening the impact of potentially more serious charges relating to document mishandling, Georgia, and his attempted coup.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think an indictment over the Stormy Daniels' payoff actually helps him a little. It's old news and it seems like a reach to make it a significant charge, and it gets the shock-impact of "Trump was indicted" out of the way long before the election.  So, like Barr kneecapping the Mueller Report, it actually helps by lessening the impact of potentially more serious charges relating to document mishandling, Georgia, and his attempted coup.

I think the goal for Democrats is to make him a martyr with GOP primary voters to ensure his nomination, then beat a weakened Trump in the general. DeSantis will be a way more formidable foe.

[VALibertarian]

I think an indictment over the Stormy Daniels' payoff actually helps him a little. It's old news and it seems like a reach to make it a significant charge, and it gets the shock-impact of "Trump was indicted" out of the way long before the election.  So, like Barr kneecapping the Mueller Report, it actually helps by lessening the impact of potentially more serious charges relating to document mishandling, Georgia, and his attempted coup.

Agree with this 100% because the media will be hyping up the circus of next week's potential indictment, but your average joe voter will just see "Trump in another legal battle over paying off a porn star, just billionaire shenanigans" and thus it lessens the impact of future indictments. Very baffling move by the NY AG I have to say.

[Ferguson97]

It obviously hurts him, and thinking otherwise is pure cope.

[LabourJersey]

I think an indictment over the Stormy Daniels' payoff actually helps him a little. It's old news and it seems like a reach to make it a significant charge, and it gets the shock-impact of "Trump was indicted" out of the way long before the election.  So, like Barr kneecapping the Mueller Report, it actually helps by lessening the impact of potentially more serious charges relating to document mishandling, Georgia, and his attempted coup.

I think the goal for Democrats is to make him a martyr with GOP primary voters to ensure his nomination, then beat a weakened Trump in the general. DeSantis will be a way more formidable foe.

It's too early to say whether Trump or DeSantis are the more formidable nominees. Both have severe flaws that could be accentuated or minimized depending on the political context of 2024.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

No effect- Impeachment was supposed to tarnish him but ended up doing nothing in the election.

[Ferguson97]

No effect- Impeachment was supposed to tarnish him but ended up doing nothing in the election.

I don't think this is a fair comparison, his impeachment was pre-covid. Basically nothing pre-covid had an impact on the election.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think an indictment over the Stormy Daniels' payoff actually helps him a little. It's old news and it seems like a reach to make it a significant charge, and it gets the shock-impact of "Trump was indicted" out of the way long before the election.  So, like Barr kneecapping the Mueller Report, it actually helps by lessening the impact of potentially more serious charges relating to document mishandling, Georgia, and his attempted coup.

I think the goal for Democrats is to make him a martyr with GOP primary voters to ensure his nomination, then beat a weakened Trump in the general. DeSantis will be a way more formidable foe.

It's too early to say whether Trump or DeSantis are the more formidable nominees. Both have severe flaws that could be accentuated or minimized depending on the political context of 2024.

The important think is that Democrats think Trump is the weaker nominee based on the 2022 results. Whether or not he actually is is a different story.

[libertpaulian]

If Trump is indicted on Tuesday, DeSantis may as well hold a presser Wednesday morning announcing he will not run but will continue spreading "the Florida Dream" across America.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think an indictment over the Stormy Daniels' payoff actually helps him a little. It's old news and it seems like a reach to make it a significant charge, and it gets the shock-impact of "Trump was indicted" out of the way long before the election.  So, like Barr kneecapping the Mueller Report, it actually helps by lessening the impact of potentially more serious charges relating to document mishandling, Georgia, and his attempted coup.

Agreed. Nobody cares about the Stormy stuff so an indictment from that will look political.

[Ferguson97]

I think an indictment over the Stormy Daniels' payoff actually helps him a little. It's old news and it seems like a reach to make it a significant charge, and it gets the shock-impact of "Trump was indicted" out of the way long before the election.  So, like Barr kneecapping the Mueller Report, it actually helps by lessening the impact of potentially more serious charges relating to document mishandling, Georgia, and his attempted coup.

Agreed. Nobody cares about the Stormy stuff so an indictment from that will look political.

People don't have to "care" about something to think that Trump is guilty and deserves to be charged.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think an indictment over the Stormy Daniels' payoff actually helps him a little. It's old news and it seems like a reach to make it a significant charge, and it gets the shock-impact of "Trump was indicted" out of the way long before the election.  So, like Barr kneecapping the Mueller Report, it actually helps by lessening the impact of potentially more serious charges relating to document mishandling, Georgia, and his attempted coup.

Replying to myself to add one caveat:

If he flees arrest, it will very likely destroy him. I figured he knew that and would accept what little jail time he might face from arrest as a sort of martyrdom, but the idea of going to jail really seems to have Trump pulling out all the stops, so the chance of him trying to flee is non-zero.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Let me just say that although Trump almost certainly will make bail that will come with conditions, and those it's generally frowned upon to attack the prosecution when out on bail. Does anyone believe Trump will seriously be able to shut up about this while out on bail?

[Coldstream]

Hurts a little in the long run, there will be some screeching from his supporters but I think enough will decide he’s not worth fighting for and move on to back someone else that it harms him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon/status/1637282221932560384
Saw this and it kind of crystallized something I've been mulling over.  I don't think an indictment will change very many votes in either direction.  Here's why:

Who will change their mind to vote for Trump solely because he's been indicted?  If someone wasn't already going to vote for him, an indictment is surely no plus.  Perhaps there are a few people who might do it as a root-for-the-underdog thing (although the idea of Trump as an underdog in life is rather laughable), but it's got to be a very small number.

Who will change their mind to NOT vote for Trump because of the indictment?  Most people who have stuck with him this long are solidly behind him regardless of any of his negatives, as in his famous "I could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue" quote.  He won't lose many, if any, diehard supporters over this.

The only place I can see it making a difference is among truly undecided voters, in either the primary or general election, trying to make up their minds at the last minute, and this could be the straw that tips them into voting for someone else or just sitting out.

On balance, I see at most a small negative electoral effect for Trump.

[RFK 2024]

As GA moderate said, it's not changing anyone's minds.  For Trump voters, it's proof that the establishment is out to get him and will arrest him for any little BS reason.  For never Trumpers who weren't going to support him anyway, it's proof he's a criminal who has been breaking the law repeatedly.  The whole indictment thing is just going to further cement peoples existing views.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As GA moderate said, it's not changing anyone's minds.  For Trump voters, it's proof that the establishment is out to get him and will arrest him for any little BS reason.  For never Trumpers who weren't going to support him anyway, it's proof he's a criminal who has been breaking the law repeatedly.  The whole indictment thing is just going to further cement peoples existing views.

LoL the female in FL< OH, TX, NC, GA, AZ, SC always put Ds over with blk and Brown Voters how did FDR get elected when he ran with Cox females gained in 1920 the right to vote the RS were Secular before the Industrial revolution and it flipped to DS

It's VBM as my signature says it's slow that's why LA, MS and KY G are out not R leaning it's VBM

Females make minimum wage just like blks but less so but they vote 55/45 D because Min are only 30 percent of population