Is Ron DeSantis the Republican Michael Dukakis?

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2023/03/21/is-ron-desantis-the-republican-michael-dukakis/

Democrats once nominated a governor for president, fresh off a landslide re-election, who claimed he could do for the country what he did for his home state. His name was Michael Dukakis, and he dubbed his state’s 1980s economic turnaround the “Massachusetts Miracle.”

However, in the 1980s, a right-leaning electorate did not embrace liberal Massachusetts values. (Texas Governor Rick Perry sought to win his party’s nomination in 2016 running on a Texas miracle.) The Republican nominee George H. W. Bush famously bludgeoned Dukakis for his opposition to the death penalty, his support for granting furloughs to convicted murderers, and his veto of legislation requiring teachers to recite the Pledge of Allegiance. Dukakis’s early polling lead crumbled in the barrage, and he won only 10 states.

Republican primary voters should ask themselves if DeSantis is their Dukakis.

[Vosem]

The comparison sort of works, I think, down to the observation that Dukakis gained steam in a primary because he was well-positioned to take down a more extreme candidate in Jackson rather than because of his particular virtues. A 'clean' primary, without candidates the national Democrats felt the need to stop, would've returned a probably-Southern New Democrat, like Gore (who ran that year) or Carter/Clinton.

I think Joe Biden as the Democratic equivalent of George H.W. Bush works really well (an older two-term Vice President who is elected to the Presidency and has substantial foreign policy successes, a sluggish economy, and a surprisingly-successful midterm), which would cast DeSantis as the Republican Clinton (and Obama as a Democratic Reagan). Of course the whole problem with this analogy is that there is no Trump equivalent (but I think there's no Trump equivalent in your variation either, unless the comparison to Jesse Jackson is deliberate).

[Vosem]

I don't think DeSantis would run as disastrous of a campaign that Dukakis ran. I could see him winning the states that Mitt Romney won in 2012.

He's already won one state Mitt Romney lost!

(There's also a weird part of me that wants to quibble about Dukakis running such a disastrous campaign; he got 46%, compared to the Democratic nominee before him getting 41% and the one after him getting 43%. In the context of the time and given his issue positions, I wonder if he even did all that poorly. Something similar goes for Romney, who had the best popular vote performance of any post-Bush Republican nominee. Of course in our system neither man achieved what actually counted, but I think it's easy to adopt a "Dukakis was less popular than Clinton" or "Romney was less popular than Trump" position without thinking it through, and I think neither statement is true in a clear-cut way.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WV doesn't count anymore it was a Robert C Byrd state and it's only 2% blk and VA has replacement of WV

[oldtimer]

Nope.

The closest modern analogy would be Ronald Reagan 1968.

Popular governor of a large state that plays second banana next to a nostalgia benemoth also from the same state. (Reagan vs Nixon)

And like Reagan it's not a guarantee that he wins the Presidency if he wins the Nomination too early.

[Person Man]

The 500 pound gorilla in the middle of the room (take your interpretation of this)  makes any sort of histrionic analysis "a stretch".

[Spectator]

The 500 pound gorilla in the middle of the room (take your interpretation of this)  makes any sort of histrionic analysis "a stretch".

Yep. Trump would torpedo DeSantis if he made it to the general election, and anyone who doubts that clearly has been conveniently ignoring all evidence of the kind of man Donald Trump is. So yes, Biden probably could win 400+ electoral votes under a DeSantis nomination.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think we should be more careful with these historical parallels. I know people like these analogies, but hardly any election or candidate is just like another.

DeSantis may fail to win the nomination or lose to Biden in November 2024, though latter is more likely to happen just because Biden had some important accomplishments in his term and presiding over a stable economy. While DeSantis comes off as too extreme without a compelling message. Is that comparable to Dukakis? Yup, but also to other losing candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He hasn't develop a platform on what he stands for all he is, is the anti Trump you can't win a Natl Eday like that just like RH honeymoon is over as soon as the SOTU, RS have never release a budget to counter inflation, Sara Huckabee Sanders said Education but they don't have that either that's why he is losing

RS are blocking Student loans relief what is their alternative it's hypocrisy because RS want us to work there is no Pell grant for Grad school only undergrad and mst people that can afford Grad school get it paid thru Employers
or MILITARY

You can't get a white collar job with just a BA it's like a HS Diploma where everyone has one, you can get one if your family like Trump owns a Law firm or a business because whites own law firms and Doctors offices Cosby show and blks and Latinos own Saloons and restaurants