Recent elections if the U.S. had a draft

[Thunderbird is the word]

Presume that the draft is somehow reinstated shortly after 9-11, or perhaps at the start of the Iraq War as a result of the Powell Doctrine being used. How does that effect recent elections?

[bagelman]

Howard Dean, who was the better nominee at the time anyway, would win in 2004 and become President promising to end foreign wars and obviously end the draft.

Depending on the economy, he might also become a one-term president, losing against a moderate republican who can prove that he always opposed the draft. He has a decent shot of winning re-election in '08 though as long as he can prove he has solutions to prevent major economic downturn.

[Kingpoleon]

Howard Dean, who was the better nominee at the time anyway, would win in 2004 and become President promising to end foreign wars and obviously end the draft.

Depending on the economy, he might also become a one-term president, losing against a moderate republican who can prove that he always opposed the draft. He has a decent shot of winning re-election in '08 though as long as he can prove he has solutions to prevent major economic downturn.

Howard Dean, economic genius, ends the draft, causing an economic boom, combined with Clinton's economic policies, should kind of stop the recession for just a bit.

[Skill and Chance]

It's clear to me that Bush would lose in 2004 to someone who pledged to end it.  Unless the 2005-09 Dem's actions somehow avert the mortgage crisis, 2008 is an obvious Republican landslide.  Whether that Republican reinstates the draft/starts more interventions in the Middle East determines whether or not they get reelected in 2012, with the Republican incumbent starting out modestly favored.

[Jerseyrules]

Depends.  Does Iraq become the mess as per otl or does the increase in troops mean (maybe alongside a coherent postwar reconstruction plan, maybe establish a neo-Ba'athist regime with a friendlier face and some consociationalism among the disparate ethnic groups) create a much quicker and more successful Iraq War?  (as per the entirety of the Powell Doctrine)  Because honestly I see that working out better for Bush's legacy than the disaster that was Iraq otl (maybe we get out by 2004-2006)

If we still have the same crappy defense department and post-invasion strategy, it's obviously a massive Dem landslide; I can see either Dean Kerry winning (the Vietnam analogue being even stronger than otl might make Kerry the ideal candidate to take on Bush).

I could also easily see Gore giving it another go.  Pick your poison; whoever wins in 2004 it's a poisoned chalice.  Prepare for a massive third party performance in 2008, someone like Ron Paul or Jesse Ventura winning at least 10% of the popular vote would not be out of the question

[Agonized-Statism]

The announcement of the draft divides public opinion, and by 2004, Bush's approvals are where they were in 2006 IOTL with the momentum behind anti-war candidate Howard Dean. Either Dean wins the nomination outright or Kerry has to make concessions. In any case, the Democrat wins and ends the draft. The housing bubble bursts soon enough and Republicans run someone in 2008 who very clearly doesn't support reinstating the draft- so basically not John McCain.

As much as 9/11 rallied Americans, you would need a more credible threat to get the WWII-style war effort the PNAC people hoped for. Maybe there would be more mileage out of it if Al-Qaeda went with the original plan to target nuclear power plants, but the need for a large standing army would be questioned nevertheless. If the justification is to win Iraq quickly, I don't see how more troops would eliminate sectarian conflict in time for the election. And if the justification is to have enough troops to invade a third country- likely Iran- they've probably already lost Middle America. The opposition wouldn't even have to run against the whole War on Terror if it was inconvenient, it's widely known that terrorism is better dealt with by a smaller and more professional military and the draft could easily be attacked as inefficient.

[MATTROSE94]

George W. Bush likely narrowly wins in 2004, though John McCain loses by a bigger margin in 2008 (perhaps only getting 43% of the popular vote and only winning 138 electoral votes). A stronger win for Barack Obama likely means that the Democrats might have enough of a buffer to have a larger Senate minority after 2014 and to regain the Senate temporarily from 2016-2018.