TX - CWS Research: Trump +16

[Gracile]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nzw276iTDDnVC6R21bqn1G2Hghb6W7CC/view

Donald Trump 43%
Ron DeSantis 27%
Ted Cruz 4%
Tim Scott 1%
Mike Pompeo 1%
Nikki Haley 5%
Mike Pence 4%
Vivek Ramaswamy 2%
Undecided 13%

879 likely primary voters, 3.3%
2/28-3/2

[Gracile]

Their previous poll from January had Trump leading DeSantis 37-36:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=535883.0

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, Cruz at 4% in his homestate. Seems like he's Santorum or Huckabee 2.0.

[Spectator]

State polls are largely now aligning with the national polls.

[President Johnson]

LOL, Cruz at 4% in his homestate. Seems like he's Santorum or Huckabee 2.0.

Just seems he has no lane anymore to run in. The Tea Party has pretty much emerged into the Trump cult, with a smaller faction becoming more "mainstream Republicans" now. Cruz just has nothing that's unique to him. His time would have been in 2016.

[Redban]

I question the accuracy of Cruz at 4%. He won Texas handily in 2016. Has he really fallen so far?

[Epaminondas]

I question the accuracy of Cruz at 4%. He won Texas handily in 2016. Has he really fallen so far?

2016 was 7 years ago.
7 years before that, Dems fully held full legislative control of Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa and Mississippi! (not to mention the lower chamber in Ohio and Indiana)

Cruz's ship has sailed.

[Spectator]

I question the accuracy of Cruz at 4%. He won Texas handily in 2016. Has he really fallen so far?

2016 was 7 years ago.
7 years before that, Dems fully held full legislative control of Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa and Mississippi! (not to mention the lower chamber in Ohio and Indiana)

Cruz's ship has sailed.

Yup, 7 years in politics is like talking about a whole different world. No one in March of 2016 would have guessed that at this time Democrats would hold the Arizona governorship and both US Senate seats. Trump almost single-handedly made it a state Republicans routinely won by 8-10 points to a state Democrats have gone undefeated in high profile races in recent years.

[Redban]

I question the accuracy of Cruz at 4%. He won Texas handily in 2016. Has he really fallen so far?

2016 was 7 years ago.
7 years before that, Dems fully held full legislative control of Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa and Mississippi! (not to mention the lower chamber in Ohio and Indiana)

Cruz's ship has sailed.

Yup, 7 years in politics is like talking about a whole different world. No one in March of 2016 would have guessed that at this time Democrats would hold the Arizona governorship and both US Senate seats. Trump almost single-handedly made it a state Republicans routinely won by 8-10 points to a state Democrats have gone undefeated in high profile races in recent years.

The state had been moving left for a while, and non-Trump Republicans don't win easily in the state. Arizona would have flipped no matter what, Trump or no Trump, because the state got younger, browner, and more Californian

[Spectator]

I question the accuracy of Cruz at 4%. He won Texas handily in 2016. Has he really fallen so far?

2016 was 7 years ago.
7 years before that, Dems fully held full legislative control of Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa and Mississippi! (not to mention the lower chamber in Ohio and Indiana)

Cruz's ship has sailed.

Yup, 7 years in politics is like talking about a whole different world. No one in March of 2016 would have guessed that at this time Democrats would hold the Arizona governorship and both US Senate seats. Trump almost single-handedly made it a state Republicans routinely won by 8-10 points to a state Democrats have gone undefeated in high profile races in recent years.

The state had been moving left for a while, and non-Trump Republicans don't win easily in the state. Arizona would have flipped no matter what, Trump or no Trump, because the state got younger, browner, and more Californian

Arizona was very static from 2000-2014 aside from Janet Napolitano’s wins, which resembled a very different winning coalition than what we see out of Democrat wins nowadays. Trump 2016  and his 3% win was the first sign of Arizona resembling any true competitiveness.

[Redban]

I question the accuracy of Cruz at 4%. He won Texas handily in 2016. Has he really fallen so far?

2016 was 7 years ago.
7 years before that, Dems fully held full legislative control of Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa and Mississippi! (not to mention the lower chamber in Ohio and Indiana)

Cruz's ship has sailed.

Yup, 7 years in politics is like talking about a whole different world. No one in March of 2016 would have guessed that at this time Democrats would hold the Arizona governorship and both US Senate seats. Trump almost single-handedly made it a state Republicans routinely won by 8-10 points to a state Democrats have gone undefeated in high profile races in recent years.

The state had been moving left for a while, and non-Trump Republicans don't win easily in the state. Arizona would have flipped no matter what, Trump or no Trump, because the state got younger, browner, and more Californian

Arizona was very static from 2000-2014 aside from Janet Napolitano’s wins, which resembled a very different winning coalition than what we see out of Democrat wins nowadays. Trump 2016  and his 3% win was the first sign of Arizona resembling any true competitiveness.

The state was +13% Republican in 2012 after being +16% Dem in 2008. And you can’t blame it on McCain’s hometown effect because he was a heavy supporter of Romney that election. McCain’s 2016 Senate victory was also the most narrow win of his senate career, showing signs of strength for the Democrats in the state (and you can’t blame it on Trump, as McCain was a famous anti-Trumper). The 2012 Arizona race was razor -tight. In 2009-2010 and 2013-2015, AZ had more Dems in the house of reps than Republicans .  Before 09’, they had never had more Dems in the house since the 1960s

[The Mikado]

I question the accuracy of Cruz at 4%. He won Texas handily in 2016. Has he really fallen so far?

DeSantis is basically running as Cruz+, or Cruz but improved. I am not surprised at all that anyone who would be thinking of supporting Cruz would just be supporting DeSantis instead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz isn't running anyways