What are the chances of a recession in the next two years?

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the chances of a recession in the next two years?

[Meclazine for Israel]

90%.

Recession is only two quarters of negative growth so it's not the end of the World.

If the US keeps lifting interest rates to control inflation, it will slow your economy more than necessary.

[RFK 2024]

I'm not an economist, but two banks failing over the weekend can't be a good sign.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm not an economist, but two banks failing over the weekend can't be a good sign.

They could always be an isolated case.

[Skill and Chance]

More likely than not. 

The best thing for Biden might be if it starts right now so it bottoms out before campaign season.  Then he can emulate Obama 2012 as closely as possible once there are signs of recovery. 

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I'm not an economist, but two banks failing over the weekend can't be a good sign.

Banks fail literally all of the time: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/

2021 and 2022 were the exceptions, not the rule. It's actually quite normal for 3-6 banks to fail per year. This is mostly hysteria. Yes, SVB was particularly large, but its situation was also unique.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm not an economist, but two banks failing over the weekend can't be a good sign.

Banks fail literally all of the time: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/

2021 and 2022 were the exceptions, not the rule. It's actually quite normal for 3-6 banks to fail per year. This is mostly hysteria. Yes, SVB was particularly large, but its situation was also unique.

It's the scale that matters.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I'm not an economist, but two banks failing over the weekend can't be a good sign.

Banks fail literally all of the time: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/

2021 and 2022 were the exceptions, not the rule. It's actually quite normal for 3-6 banks to fail per year. This is mostly hysteria. Yes, SVB was particularly large, but its situation was also unique.

It's the scale that matters.

Which is true, but again, a surface-level analysis. SVB was uniquely concentrated in tech, startups, venture capital, and rich people. We're not talking about national or local banks that have broad customer bases and diversified loan portfolios.

It was also unique in not hedging its investments to protect it against its losses. I would be extremely worried if SVB was a "normal" bank with its fingers in more pies and its loan portfolios went bad, which would indicate something bigger in the macroeconomy. $200 billion is indeed a lot, but it's concentrated. If it was a $200 billion regional bank, then I would be worried. But normal banks don't cater almost exclusively to tech and don't have all their customers in one WhatsApp group spreading panic.

Right now the big issue is not a recession, but a contagion in the financial sector which later spills into the macroeconomy. And seeing how the FDIC, the Federal Reserve, and Treasury all have acted quickly to shut it down and backstop its deposits, I'm not really worried.

[RFK 2024]

I'm not an economist, but two banks failing over the weekend can't be a good sign.

Banks fail literally all of the time: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/

2021 and 2022 were the exceptions, not the rule. It's actually quite normal for 3-6 banks to fail per year. This is mostly hysteria. Yes, SVB was particularly large, but its situation was also unique.

I'll take a quote from the CNN article I read this morning (Maruf, 2023):

"Silicon Valley Bank’s 48-hour collapse led to the second-largest failure of a financial institution in US history. SVB was one of America’s 20 largest commercial banks."

From the list you posted, it looks like most of the banks that have failed in recent years were small with headquarters in underserved areas.  These banks were based in Silicon Valley and NYC.

EDIT: Just did a bit more reading, and Signature Bank was the third-largest failure in US history.  Both banks had $100B+ in assets.  SVB in particular was huge in the tech industry, with over half of startups working with them.  I find it hard to believe this will not have huge implications.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Hearing 70%+. That said, if it happens soon, the recession will be over before election day 2024.

[Ferguson97]

If a recession does happen, it will have nothing to do with SVB.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If a recession does happen, it will have nothing to do with SVB.

I think its more that SVB would be a symptom of the coming recession rather than the cause.

[Raccoon]

I am LITERALLY about to have a nervous breakdown about a RECESSION.. like losing sleep

[Ferguson97]

If a recession does happen, it will have nothing to do with SVB.

I think its more that SVB would be a symptom of the coming recession rather than the cause.

I don't agree. The causes of SVB's collapse are very insulated and specific. A recession is certainly possible, but SVB would not be a symptom of one.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Does the definition of recession get to be changed?