MT-Sen R-primary: Rosendale 36, Zinke 26, Stapleton 6; GE: Rosendale +5
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  MT-Sen R-primary: Rosendale 36, Zinke 26, Stapleton 6; GE: Rosendale +5
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Author Topic: MT-Sen R-primary: Rosendale 36, Zinke 26, Stapleton 6; GE: Rosendale +5  (Read 394 times)
Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« on: March 10, 2023, 09:41:07 AM »



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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2023, 10:10:06 AM »

Just a reminder that at least in terms of GE performance, OnMessage also thought Bennett and Murray were barely winning in 2022 lol.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2023, 10:16:39 AM »

As I say before Biden polls are gonna be stagnant until a Debt Ceiling is signed into law you gonna have ups and downs
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2023, 10:22:25 AM »
« Edited: March 10, 2023, 10:27:13 AM by libertpaulian »

lol, the GOP leadership always falls for these "war veterans" or "self-made millionaire" types in the primaries, only for said candidates to be smoked in the primary election by someone who thinks that Zelensky is a Nazi puppet of the WEF and that the War in Ukraine is a front to force us all to address Nikole Hannah-Jones by non-binary pronouns.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2023, 12:48:39 PM »

The fact that Tester is already down by 5 points before the primary has even really begun isn't good news. Lean to Likely R.
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Alien Love Call
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« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2023, 12:52:46 PM »

Russell WHAT?!
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President Johnson
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« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2023, 01:44:41 PM »

It's very early, though I could see a scenario in which Tester is finally running out of luck due to increased political polarization, especially in a presidential year. Even if Biden wins reelection, he's not coming close in Montana. It requires Tester to outrun the top of the ticket by at least mid to high single digits.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2023, 08:30:25 PM »

I love GOP primary voters so much
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TML
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« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2023, 10:16:17 PM »

It's very early, though I could see a scenario in which Tester is finally running out of luck due to increased political polarization, especially in a presidential year. Even if Biden wins reelection, he's not coming close in Montana. It requires Tester to outrun the top of the ticket by at least mid to high single digits.

This isn't unprecedented: Tester outran Obama by 17 points in 2012, while Bullock outran Hillary Clinton by 24 points in 2016. While it is true that Bullock only outran Biden by 6 points in 2020, the difference was that Bullock was running for reelection to his existing position in 2016 but was running for a new position in 2020, which greatly reduced his incumbency advantage in 2020 compared to 2016 (as I mentioned elsewhere in the forum, since 2014 the only Democrats to win statewide races in MT were those who were running for reelection to their existing positions, which applied to Bullock in 2016 and Tester in 2018; all other Democratic statewide candidates during this time were running for positions they hadn't yet occupied and thus fell short). Tester will have the advantage of being an incumbent running for reelection to his existing position in 2024, so that should be a factor in his advantage (I'm not saying Tester can't lose, I'm just pointing out one of the reasons he should be counted out yet.).

It should be noted that there were a couple of polls in the 2018 cycle where Tester trailed Rosendale, so we should still wait for more polls to come out before definitively calling Tester an underdog and/or Rosendale a favorite.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2023, 10:25:34 PM »

Rosendale isn't even running so they poll Rosendale and Zinke it's irrelevant
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2023, 10:28:25 PM »

It's very early, though I could see a scenario in which Tester is finally running out of luck due to increased political polarization, especially in a presidential year. Even if Biden wins reelection, he's not coming close in Montana. It requires Tester to outrun the top of the ticket by at least mid to high single digits.

LoL it's a 303 map it depends on what happens in OH with Brown and that's wave insurance I won't underestimate him I underestimate him in 2006 that's why I didn't underestimate Ryan but he lost in a Midterm this is a Prez Eday

He's down by 5 pts MOE, people thinks its Lean R 5 pts lol Dr Oz didn't win and it was 3 pts
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UWS
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« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2023, 07:35:14 AM »
« Edited: March 11, 2023, 08:04:36 AM by UWS »

If Tester is trailing Rosendale even before any Republican candidate made an announce itís bad for Tester. The moreover that this poll says that the Green Party takes 3 % of the voting intentions which are good news for Republicans because it divides the Democratic vote. And in a state that Donald Trump won by more than 10 percentage points, Tester voted with Brandon 99 % of the time. Since the last few years he moved even further to the left as he supports abolishing the filibuster even though he urged Mitch McConnell to keep it

https://dailycaller.com/2023/03/06/jon-tester-voting-record-joe-biden-media-claims-moderate/
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2023, 07:59:15 AM »

If Tester is trailing Rosendale even before any Republican candidate annonced itís bad for Tester. The moreover that this poll says that the Green Party takes 3 % of the voting intentions which are good news for Republicans because it divides the Democratic vote. And in a state that Donald Trump won by more than 10 percentage points, Tester voted with Brandon 99 % of the time. Since the last few years he moved even further to the left as he supports abolishing the filibuster even though he urged Mitch McConnell to keep it

https://dailycaller.com/2023/03/06/jon-tester-voting-record-joe-biden-media-claims-moderate/


Yep Tester had the same lead a few weeks ago and 5 pts worked out so well for Oz and he Lost with the same 5 pt lead over Warnock with Walker and he lost too, lol it's 2 yrs til EDAY
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2023, 08:04:33 AM »
« Edited: March 11, 2023, 08:32:36 AM by The Address That Must Not be Named »


Heís actually a former district court Judge, former State Rep, and 2018 Senate candidate from Yellowstone County (Billings).  IIRC, Fagg is pretty popular in the Billings area and only lost the 2018 primary to Rosendale by ~5%.  Honestly, an argument could probably be made that Fagg would be a much stronger candidate than Rosendale or Zinke.  He seems like Generic R with some real local popularity in a key area.  

Incidentally, both Rosendale (terrible speaker, nutjob, photographed with prominent neo-Nazis, easy to brand as ďnot a real Montanan,Ē potential for a Kobach-style dynamic) and Zinke (hopelessly scandal-ridden, only avoided indictment due to corrupt interference by Barr, under-performer, IIRC he has lied a bit about his resume/past jobs/etc, generally has a general air of untrustworthiness to him) have some serious vulnerabilities.  I think national Republicans can probably keep Zinke out if they really want to, but Rosendale is gonna do whatever he wants to do.  

Rosendale is a backbencher who has gone all in on the crazy caucus schtick and already burned many of his bridges in the House trying to ensure heíd have that lane to himself.  He was among the few anti-McCarthy rebels who didnít get anything and held out until the end.  Heís not the strongest candidate so he canít count on being the frontrunner for the nomination in six years if Tester wins and heís stuck as a particularly impotent House backbencher if Tester loses to someone else this year.  Itís likely now or never if Rosendale wants to move up the ladder to the Senate (and he pretty clearly does).  Maybe he can be bullied or bought into sitting things out, but if he held out Re: McCarthy even when it was clear the battle was over, then why would he back down from a fight he has a very real chance of actually winning just to appease folks (the National Republican establishment) who donít like him and whom he has made a such a point of antagonizing?  

Plus, if Rosendale is the nominee, then national Republicans are stuck with him whether they wanted him or not.  That Rosendale is arguably the weakest Republicans Tester might realistically face (hard to say if Rosendale or Zinke is weaker tbh) and national Republicans donít like him is beside the point.  If heís the nominee, theyíll line up behind him all the same.

But I digress (this post really wasnít supposed to be about Rosendale Tongue )
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