NH (Emerson): Trump +41

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1633286482617139207

[Spectator]

Well, that’s an early state that tracks with the national polling.

[Sir Mohamed]

So much for DeSantis leading in state polls.

[Skill and Chance]

Would be ironic if Trump wins the primary PV due to blowout margins with secular R's in the NE and Midwest but loses to DeSantis in delegates. 

[President Johnson]

Would be ironic if Trump wins the primary PV due to blowout margins with secular R's in the NE and Midwest but loses to DeSantis in delegates. 

If Trump wins New Hampshire by over 40 points (which also suggests he did/does well in Iowa and the other early states), DeSantis or whoever is still in the mix will have to drop out. The loss of momentum and drying up of vital cashflow would make it next to impossible to continue with their campaign.

[Skill and Chance]

Would be ironic if Trump wins the primary PV due to blowout margins with secular R's in the NE and Midwest but loses to DeSantis in delegates. 

If Trump wins New Hampshire by over 40 points (which also suggests he did/does well in Iowa and the other early states), DeSantis or whoever is still in the mix will have to drop out. The loss of momentum and drying up of vital cashflow would make it next to impossible to continue with their campaign.

Yes, but what if DeSantis wins Iowa and SC by 10 while Trump wins NH by 25 and NV by 5, then super Tuesday is a DeSantis sweep in the South while Trump sweeps New England and wins CA by 10?

[Ragnaroni]

These morons are seriously gonna nominate Trump again? Well there goes the race...
See you guys in 2028!

[Vosem]

Well, that’s an early state that tracks with the national polling.

Should be noted that Emerson has emerged as Trump's best polling outfit at every level of the primary by far. Their last five national polls had the following outcomes (only candidates >5% support included):

September 2021: Trump 67, DeSantis 10, Haley 7, Pence 6...
June 2022: Trump 55, DeSantis 20, Pence 9...
November 2022: Trump 55, DeSantis 25, Pence 8...
January 2023: Trump 55, DeSantis 29, Pence 6...
February 2023: Trump 55, DeSantis 25, Pence 8, Haley 5...

So it would be rather strange if they showed a remotely close race in NH, since most polling firms are consistent on Trump being stronger there than nationally.

So far, in 2023, we've had three polls of New Hampshire: one from UNH showing DeSantis+12, one from Coefficient showing Trump+11, and one from Emerson showing Trump+41. All of these are firms with pretty bad reputations. Averaging out their findings, though (since the average is usually better than any one specific firm), we have a current standing in New Hampshire of Trump 42, DeSantis 28, Sununu 8, Haley 6, and no other candidates averaging >5%.

(FTR in Iowa we have no 2023 polling at all, but we do have two post-midterm surveys, both showing DeSantis leading. Their average is DeSantis 41, Trump 34, and no one else >5%. Since Iowa is a caucus, we can expect a much more educated and high-information electorate than at other contests, so a single-digit DeSantis lead there still probably translates to a comfortable-ish Trump lead nationally at the moment).

[Tekken_Guy]

Well, that’s an early state that tracks with the national polling.

Should be noted that Emerson has emerged as Trump's best polling outfit at every level of the primary by far. Their last five national polls had the following outcomes (only candidates >5% support included):

September 2021: Trump 67, DeSantis 10, Haley 7, Pence 6...
June 2022: Trump 55, DeSantis 20, Pence 9...
November 2022: Trump 55, DeSantis 25, Pence 8...
January 2023: Trump 55, DeSantis 29, Pence 6...
February 2023: Trump 55, DeSantis 25, Pence 8, Haley 5...

So it would be rather strange if they showed a remotely close race in NH, since most polling firms are consistent on Trump being stronger there than nationally.

So far, in 2023, we've had three polls of New Hampshire: one from UNH showing DeSantis+12, one from Coefficient showing Trump+11, and one from Emerson showing Trump+41. All of these are firms with pretty bad reputations. Averaging out their findings, though (since the average is usually better than any one specific firm), we have a current standing in New Hampshire of Trump 42, DeSantis 28, Sununu 8, Haley 6, and no other candidates averaging >5%.

(FTR in Iowa we have no 2023 polling at all, but we do have two post-midterm surveys, both showing DeSantis leading. Their average is DeSantis 41, Trump 34, and no one else >5%. Since Iowa is a caucus, we can expect a much more educated and high-information electorate than at other contests, so a single-digit DeSantis lead there still probably translates to a comfortable-ish Trump lead nationally at the moment).

I'm pretty certain Trump consistently does better in national polls than he does in New Hampshire ones.

[Vosem]

Well, that’s an early state that tracks with the national polling.

Should be noted that Emerson has emerged as Trump's best polling outfit at every level of the primary by far. Their last five national polls had the following outcomes (only candidates >5% support included):

September 2021: Trump 67, DeSantis 10, Haley 7, Pence 6...
June 2022: Trump 55, DeSantis 20, Pence 9...
November 2022: Trump 55, DeSantis 25, Pence 8...
January 2023: Trump 55, DeSantis 29, Pence 6...
February 2023: Trump 55, DeSantis 25, Pence 8, Haley 5...

So it would be rather strange if they showed a remotely close race in NH, since most polling firms are consistent on Trump being stronger there than nationally.

So far, in 2023, we've had three polls of New Hampshire: one from UNH showing DeSantis+12, one from Coefficient showing Trump+11, and one from Emerson showing Trump+41. All of these are firms with pretty bad reputations. Averaging out their findings, though (since the average is usually better than any one specific firm), we have a current standing in New Hampshire of Trump 42, DeSantis 28, Sununu 8, Haley 6, and no other candidates averaging >5%.

(FTR in Iowa we have no 2023 polling at all, but we do have two post-midterm surveys, both showing DeSantis leading. Their average is DeSantis 41, Trump 34, and no one else >5%. Since Iowa is a caucus, we can expect a much more educated and high-information electorate than at other contests, so a single-digit DeSantis lead there still probably translates to a comfortable-ish Trump lead nationally at the moment).

I'm pretty certain Trump consistently does better in national polls than he does in New Hampshire ones.

This isn't true if you compare like with like (polls conducted by the same firm), though. Depending on methodology you can get really large differences in the national state of play (anything from huge DeSantis landslide to huge Trump landslide).

[Tekken_Guy]

Well, that’s an early state that tracks with the national polling.

Should be noted that Emerson has emerged as Trump's best polling outfit at every level of the primary by far. Their last five national polls had the following outcomes (only candidates >5% support included):

September 2021: Trump 67, DeSantis 10, Haley 7, Pence 6...
June 2022: Trump 55, DeSantis 20, Pence 9...
November 2022: Trump 55, DeSantis 25, Pence 8...
January 2023: Trump 55, DeSantis 29, Pence 6...
February 2023: Trump 55, DeSantis 25, Pence 8, Haley 5...

So it would be rather strange if they showed a remotely close race in NH, since most polling firms are consistent on Trump being stronger there than nationally.

So far, in 2023, we've had three polls of New Hampshire: one from UNH showing DeSantis+12, one from Coefficient showing Trump+11, and one from Emerson showing Trump+41. All of these are firms with pretty bad reputations. Averaging out their findings, though (since the average is usually better than any one specific firm), we have a current standing in New Hampshire of Trump 42, DeSantis 28, Sununu 8, Haley 6, and no other candidates averaging >5%.

(FTR in Iowa we have no 2023 polling at all, but we do have two post-midterm surveys, both showing DeSantis leading. Their average is DeSantis 41, Trump 34, and no one else >5%. Since Iowa is a caucus, we can expect a much more educated and high-information electorate than at other contests, so a single-digit DeSantis lead there still probably translates to a comfortable-ish Trump lead nationally at the moment).

I'm pretty certain Trump consistently does better in national polls than he does in New Hampshire ones.

This isn't true if you compare like with like (polls conducted by the same firm), though. Depending on methodology you can get really large differences in the national state of play (anything from huge DeSantis landslide to huge Trump landslide).

Maybe it's true on Emerson, but they seem to be the only pollster who polled both national and NH races. Are there any others who polled both and show Trump doing better in NH?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

These morons are seriously gonna nominate Trump again? Well there goes the race...
See you guys in 2028!

Well, that's the thing with polarization by education. One party is going to be the dumb party, and that party is going to do dumb things.

[TML]

Remember that exit polls from the 2020 NH Republican primary indicated that on the question of loyalty to Trump vs. loyalty to the Republican Party, 55% of respondents indicated loyalty to Trump, while 39% indicated loyalty to the Republican Party. This poll shows that the concept of "loyalty to Trump" apparently still dominates the Republican primary electorate here in NH.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Remember that exit polls from the 2020 NH Republican primary indicated that on the question of loyalty to Trump vs. loyalty to the Republican Party, 55% of respondents indicated loyalty to Trump, while 39% indicated loyalty to the Republican Party. This poll shows that the concept of "loyalty to Trump" apparently still dominates the Republican primary electorate here in NH.

And northeast primary electorates are still pretty pro-Trump. If anything the least Trumpy electorates are the south. A state being more Republican doesn't necessarily mean the Republican primary electorate is more Trumpy.

[DaleCooper]

Remember that exit polls from the 2020 NH Republican primary indicated that on the question of loyalty to Trump vs. loyalty to the Republican Party, 55% of respondents indicated loyalty to Trump, while 39% indicated loyalty to the Republican Party. This poll shows that the concept of "loyalty to Trump" apparently still dominates the Republican primary electorate here in NH.

I'm growing more and more skeptical that the Republican Party can survive Trump beyond relatively non-partisan local and state races. This man is a religious figure and there is no successor.