How many states will switch? (excluding NM, IO, & NH)

[TomC]

I think 6 states will switch, including two of  the three mentioned: Ia, NM, Nev, Colo, Mo., Ohio. NH will only switch if Sununu is VP nom.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see TN, OK, or KY switching. If you want to get technical, KY has a good record as well, with picking the winning presidential candidate except in 1960.  Both TN and KY have picked the winning candidate about the same number of times but Bush carried both of them by double digits, I think NM, NV, FL,  and OH which went about 6 pts or less to the winning candidate will determine the winner of this presidential election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think that if the winning candidate wins by a substantial amount, I can see some of these more conservative states like VA, AR, and even OK switching to the Dems, but if it is another close election, I think that those states  will stay republican. I say at around 1-3 states flipping to the Dems.