Would a President McCain win in this timeline?

[Gopchick]

If Kerry won in 2004, and then lost to McCain in 2008 from the recession, would President McCain defeat Senator Obama in 2012?

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Depends on how his presidency went. Atomic statism has a pretty dark timeline where John McCain wins 2008 and loses to Barack Obama by a landslide when Donald Trump runs third-party

[Agonized-Statism]

I think President McCain means war in Iran which alone would sink him, lest we forget "I'm well-versed in economics; I was at the Reagan Revolution" in the Reagan Revolution-induced recession or his definite stance in the GOP's internal conflict at a time when the party and its shrinking coalition would need to be more united than ever (Trump OTL is arguably an aberration, probably the only one who could have brought enough new voters to the coalition for a narrow victory in 2016). The timeline in question:

2008

President John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) ✓

President Kerry is better able to share the blame for Iraq and the recession than Bush IOTL. Then there's Edwards likely retiring- either in a scandal, because he demonstrated that behavior IOTL and would do something like it here, or less controversially because he would want to spend time with his dying wife. Obama really steps into the spotlight as Kerry's running mate here. Still a Republican victory but not the mandate Obama had against the Republicans IOTL. Not to mention McCain is a terrible candidate to run any time after Iraq has gotten unpopular regardless of the incumbent.

2012

President John McCain (R-AZ) / Vice President Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) / Fmr. Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA) ✓
Businessman Donald Trump (TP-NY) / Governor Sarah Palin (TP-AK)

McCain starts a war with Iran in 2009 to disarm an alleged nuclear weapons program and in support of the Green Movement protests, and a combination of the oil shock and congressional Republicans' doubling down on Reaganomics plunges the country indisputably into a second Great Depression. By the 2010 midterms, factionalism is tearing the GOP apart. None other than Donald Trump emerges to primary McCain and then run third-party.

[President Johnson]

Really depends on how his presidency went. I'm also not exactly sure whether McCain would have run for reelection in 2012.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Depends on how his presidency went. Atomic statism has a pretty dark timeline where John McCain wins 2008 and loses to Barack Obama by a landslide when Donald Trump runs third-party

Do you have a link for that one?

[BigVic]

No. 2010 sees a reverse of OTL 2010 in the Midterms and be loses 2012

[Del Tachi]

McCain does not seem like a natural 2008 nominee in this scenario.  Opposition parties are often more motivated, which makes them likely to nominate more ideological candidates.  A better midterm for the GOP in 2006 also means there may be more viable candidates.  My bet is McCain would lose the primary to a "conservative" like Romney or Allen.

Assuming McCain is elected and assuming he's thrown into the hellfire of the 2008 GFC, it's interesting to ponder what kind of economic manager he would be as president.  Foreign policy is obviously McCain's preferred wheelhouse, so he either outsources the economic stuff to his cabinet/admin (i.e., folks like Rob Portman, most likely) or completely botches the Federal response and is perceived as ineffective.  Maybe both.  If Democrats have large majorities in Congress, maybe McCain is able to negotiate a "grand bargain" on healthcare, taxes, or spending.