PA (Susquehanna): DeSantis +5

[Roll Roons]

https://www.pennlive.com/elections/2023/03/early-2024-poll-shows-desantis-leading-trump-among-pa-republican-voters.html?utm_campaign=pennlive_sf&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

DeSantis 37%
Trump 32%
Haley 4%
Cruz 2%
Pence 2%
Pompeo 1%
T. Scott 1%
Other/undecided 17%

Bear in mind that DeSantis's family is originally from PA so if he plays that up on the campaign trail, he would have a great shot here in the primary and the general.

[Tekken_Guy]

...but everyone on Atlas told me Trump has the nomination locked up and DeSantis has no chance.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

State polls point to a DeSantis+10 primary electorate but national polls are Trump+20.
Very confusing.
If Trump is leading in the nationwide primary popular vote, he is winning Pennsylvania.

[S019]

If Trump loses PA, he's in big trouble.

[Stuart98]

When the quehanna is sus

[Sir Mohamed]

Never heard of the pollster. Again nationwide and state polls in the GOP primary just don't line up with one another.

[Biden 2024]

Junk poll!

[oldtimer]

State polls point to a DeSantis+10 primary electorate but national polls are Trump+20.
Very confusing.
If Trump is leading in the nationwide primary popular vote, he is winning Pennsylvania.

There is no national primary, only state primaries.

That's why national polls of presidential primaries are useless.

Give us Selzer polls of Iowa and WBUR polls of New Hampshire instead.

[Cyrusman]

If Trump loses PA, he's in big trouble.

This. PA is one of the few states Trump has performed better in than most republicans in the last decade. Even in his losing 2020 effort it was a very respectable loss. Loss by less than 2 points. If he's loosing PA its over

[MT Treasurer]

...but everyone on Atlas told me Trump has the nomination locked up and DeSantis has no chance.

The only posters who I’ve seen make incredibly smug predictions about the Republican primary are (a) mindless Democratic partisans who’d obviously prefer to face Trump in the GE, (b) wannabe edgelords who will only ever be relevant on the Internet and (c) blatantly obvious trolls who are desperate for the attention they don’t get as soon as they log out of this forum. In fact, I don’t think there’s been a single exception to this. Pay attention to it the next time you see a comment like that — you’ll notice that the poster falls into at least one of the three categories I listed here!

Just because those three groups (not that there isn’t overlap between them) comprise the bulk of Atlas posters on this board in particular doesn’t mean that "everyone on Atlas" thinks Trump has the nomination locked up. Many of us are quite aware of DeSantis's strength in the state-level polls in particular. Some of us are also aware that it’s March 2023, not March 2024.

[Xing]

Early polls are junk unless I like them, then anyone who finds them suspicious is a mindless hack or troll.

[MT Treasurer]

Early polls are junk unless I like them, then anyone who finds them suspicious is a mindless hack or troll.

I mean, you think Trump has the nomination locked up no matter what (while disregarding any poll that contradicts your narrative) and you just so happen to be a very partisan Democrat (see category A), so yes?

You certainly don’t find those Trump +30 national polls "suspicious"!

[Xing]

Early polls are junk unless I like them, then anyone who finds them suspicious is a mindless hack or troll.

I mean, you think Trump has the nomination locked up no matter what (while disregarding any poll that contradicts your narrative) and you just so happen to be a very partisan Democrat (see category A), so yes?

You certainly don’t find those Trump +30 national polls "suspicious"!

I think Trump is overwhelmingly favored, yes, but not because of Trump +30 polls (which I don’t think are trustworthy either, even if they happen to end up close to the actual result.) I don’t think it pays to read into any early polls. I mean, I highly doubt Biden would only get a plurality or slight majority in a Democratic primary, though that’s what current polls are saying.

[Tekken_Guy]

Early polls are junk unless I like them, then anyone who finds them suspicious is a mindless hack or troll.

I mean, you think Trump has the nomination locked up no matter what (while disregarding any poll that contradicts your narrative) and you just so happen to be a very partisan Democrat (see category A), so yes?

You certainly don’t find those Trump +30 national polls "suspicious"!

I think Trump is overwhelmingly favored, yes, but not because of Trump +30 polls (which I don’t think are trustworthy either, even if they happen to end up close to the actual result.) I don’t think it pays to read into any early polls. I mean, I highly doubt Biden would only get a plurality or slight majority in a Democratic primary, though that’s what current polls are saying.

Then why do you think Trump is overwhelmingly favored?

[Xing]

Early polls are junk unless I like them, then anyone who finds them suspicious is a mindless hack or troll.

I mean, you think Trump has the nomination locked up no matter what (while disregarding any poll that contradicts your narrative) and you just so happen to be a very partisan Democrat (see category A), so yes?

You certainly don’t find those Trump +30 national polls "suspicious"!

I think Trump is overwhelmingly favored, yes, but not because of Trump +30 polls (which I don’t think are trustworthy either, even if they happen to end up close to the actual result.) I don’t think it pays to read into any early polls. I mean, I highly doubt Biden would only get a plurality or slight majority in a Democratic primary, though that’s what current polls are saying.

Then why do you think Trump is overwhelmingly favored?

Because he’s always had a huge, extremely loyal following among Republicans, and I’ve yet to see evidence that his grip on the base has disappeared.

[Tekken_Guy]

Early polls are junk unless I like them, then anyone who finds them suspicious is a mindless hack or troll.

I mean, you think Trump has the nomination locked up no matter what (while disregarding any poll that contradicts your narrative) and you just so happen to be a very partisan Democrat (see category A), so yes?

You certainly don’t find those Trump +30 national polls "suspicious"!

I think Trump is overwhelmingly favored, yes, but not because of Trump +30 polls (which I don’t think are trustworthy either, even if they happen to end up close to the actual result.) I don’t think it pays to read into any early polls. I mean, I highly doubt Biden would only get a plurality or slight majority in a Democratic primary, though that’s what current polls are saying.

Then why do you think Trump is overwhelmingly favored?

Because he’s always had a huge, extremely loyal following among Republicans, and I’ve yet to see evidence that his grip on the base has disappeared.

I've yet to see evidence that this following is more than half of the GOP primary electorate. If it is, then yeah he's favored. If it's not, than all bets are off and consolidation around a single opponent will be his downfall.