Why isn't New Mexico trending Republican?

[Cyrusman]

This is probably the state I'm most stubborn about. All the demographics point to a state that "should" trend Republican. Why is Nevada trending/has been trending republican, but not New Mexico?

New Mexico is
- Very rural outside of Albuquerque. Sante Fe isn't that big
- Albuquerque itself is nowhere is big is Denver, Portland, Seattle, Austin, Dallas
- Low population of college gradate whites
- Large population on non college gradate whites
- Large population of working class Hispanics
- Not know for tech or entertainment industry
- Oil is a part of their state economy. Not like TX or Louisiana, but still is there.

Like I don't really see many trends going "against" the GOP here. If anything its a state they should in theory be making up ground in.

[TodayJunior]

New Mexico by and large is a very poor state not too dissimilar to WV MS or AR. The difference is the western states are by and large much more secular/culturally left leaning. I do think there’s a hard floor around 41-42 for the gop that would prevent a complete collapse like we’re seeing in real-time in CO.

That doesn’t explain the divergence of NV/NM, but that’s my take. NV was always less Dem than NM.

[Cyrusman]

New Mexico by and large is a very poor state not too dissimilar to WV MS or AR. The difference is the western states are by and large much more secular/culturally left leaning. I do think there’s a hard floor around 41-42 for the gop that would prevent a complete collapse like we’re seeing in real-time in CO.

That doesn’t explain the divergence of NV/NM, but that’s my take. NV was always less Dem than NM.

But why does being secular alone effect the political landscape of the state more so than all the other points I mentioned? Like not every republican is religious especially outside of the south. Same goes for their politicians.

[TDAS04]

Large Hispanic, Native American, and hippie populations.

[pbrower2a]

New Mexico by and large is a very poor state not too dissimilar to WV MS or AR. The difference is the western states are by and large much more secular/culturally left leaning. I do think there’s a hard floor around 41-42 for the gop that would prevent a complete collapse like we’re seeing in real-time in CO.

That doesn’t explain the divergence of NV/NM, but that’s my take. NV was always less Dem than NM.

The poor people are largely Mexican-Americans who respect formal education and distrust GOP disparagement of formal education. Even as Mexican-Americans join the American middle class they keep their culture intact. Mexican-Americans can assimilate non-Hispanics effectively.

[ottermax]

Isolation maybe?

New Mexico strikes me as a state that isn't as influenced by regional or national trends like other Southwest states.

Nevada and Arizona have very strong Republican bases motivated by antagonism against California, Idaho against Washington/Oregon + California, etc.

If anything New Mexico has Texas as an influence which might generate more motivation from the Democratic base to turnout.

Non-White Engagement:  NM Dems seem to do a great job activating the Hispanic and Native base whereas many other state parties struggle to connect with their non-white voters. I'm sure part of this is just the history of Hispanic influence in the state.

Turnout and Education: NM is very low on the college education percentage, but very high on the post-graduate degree level. When it comes to voter turnout in a state like NM that generally has low turnout having an active base of liberal highly-educated voters matters. Arizona and Nevada especially do not have this significant of a base (although Arizona has clearly shifted this way).

[Central Lake]

Partially, Gary Johnson's presence on the ballot in 2016.

[MarkD]

This is probably the state I'm most stubborn about. All the demographics point to a state that "should" trend Republican. Why is Nevada trending/has been trending republican, but not New Mexico?

New Mexico is
- Very rural outside of Albuquerque. Sante Fe isn't that big
- Albuquerque itself is nowhere is big is Denver, Portland, Seattle, Austin, Dallas
- Low population of college gradate whites
- Large population on non college gradate whites
- Large population of working class Hispanics
- Not know(n) for tech or entertainment industry
- Oil is a part of their state economy. Not like TX or Louisiana, but still is there.

Like I don't really see many trends going "against" the GOP here. If anything its a state they should in theory be making up ground in.

"Not known for tech" ...? LOL. One of the things I think about foremost when I think about the state of New Mexico is the Los Alamos National Laboratory, one of the most important institutions for studying nuclear power in the world. There is an important reason why the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee always has at least one US Senator from NM on it, and often times it has had both Senators from NM.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

This is probably the state I'm most stubborn about. All the demographics point to a state that "should" trend Republican. Why is Nevada trending/has been trending republican, but not New Mexico?

New Mexico is
- Very rural outside of Albuquerque. Sante Fe isn't that big
- Albuquerque itself is nowhere is big is Denver, Portland, Seattle, Austin, Dallas
- Low population of college gradate whites
- Large population on non college gradate whites
- Large population of working class Hispanics
- Not know(n) for tech or entertainment industry
- Oil is a part of their state economy. Not like TX or Louisiana, but still is there.

Like I don't really see many trends going "against" the GOP here. If anything its a state they should in theory be making up ground in.

"Not known for tech" ...? LOL. One of the things I think about foremost when I think about the state of New Mexico is the Los Alamos National Laboratory, one of the most important institutions for studying nuclear power in the world. There is an important reason why the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee always has at least one US Senator from NM on it, and often times it has had both Senators from NM.

Nuclear isn’t really what people think of when they think of “tech”. It’s more Internet + computers + software stuff

[Agonized-Statism]

It's pretty clear IMO. New Mexico has consistently had the highest proportion of Hispanic ancestry of any state, and Neomexicanos are different from Tejanos- LULAC's assimilationist message was never as popular there as it was in Texas, and New Mexican Hispanics directly benefitted from increased federal investment in the state from World War II on. I mention Tejanos because that's who Republicans point to when they say "Hispanics are trending R", and they're more likely to be just descendants of white Spanish settlers than Neomexicanos, many of whom can trace their lineage back to Oasisamerican indigenous peoples (i.e. they're less white). It's also got a pretty robust and growing population of Mexican-born immigrants.

[mianfei]

Large Hispanic, Native American, and hippie populations.

Undoubtedly true. New Mexico has a large area of mountain “hippie” towns and a large Native American population. The influence of what might be called “mountain Democrats” is rivalled only by Colorado and Vermont, which it why it rivals Vermont as the state with the most Democratic rural vote.

It's pretty clear IMO. New Mexico has consistently had the highest proportion of Hispanic ancestry of any state, and Neomexicanos are different from Tejanos — LULAC's assimilationist message was never as popular there as it was in Texas, and New Mexican Hispanics directly benefitted from increased federal investment in the state from World War II on. I mention Tejanos because that's who Republicans point to when they say "Hispanics are trending R", and they're more likely to be just descendants of white Spanish settlers than Neomexicanos, many of whom can trace their lineage back to Oasisamerican indigenous peoples (i.e. they're less white). It's also got a pretty robust and growing population of Mexican-born immigrants.

One can see the difference even state-internally. In Texas itself, mountainous Brewster and Presidio Counties which are closely allied to the high-mountain counties like Santa Fe, Taos and Mora which “TDAS04” was discussing showed none of the rapid Texan Republican trend of 2020, whereas there was such a trend in the New Mexico Bootheel but not as large as in South Texas or enough to influence the result.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It has poor Latinos not rich Latinos like in CA

[Death of a Salesman]

This is probably the state I'm most stubborn about. All the demographics point to a state that "should" trend Republican. Why is Nevada trending/has been trending republican, but not New Mexico?

New Mexico is
- Very rural outside of Albuquerque. Sante Fe isn't that big
- Albuquerque itself is nowhere is big is Denver, Portland, Seattle, Austin, Dallas
- Low population of college gradate whites
- Large population on non college gradate whites
- Large population of working class Hispanics
- Not know(n) for tech or entertainment industry
- Oil is a part of their state economy. Not like TX or Louisiana, but still is there.

Like I don't really see many trends going "against" the GOP here. If anything its a state they should in theory be making up ground in.

"Not known for tech" ...? LOL. One of the things I think about foremost when I think about the state of New Mexico is the Los Alamos National Laboratory, one of the most important institutions for studying nuclear power in the world. There is an important reason why the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee always has at least one US Senator from NM on it, and often times it has had both Senators from NM.

Nuclear isn’t really what people think of when they think of “tech”. It’s more Internet + computers + software stuff

Los Alamos is also tiny. It's less than 1% of the state population.

[pbrower2a]

Even as Mexican-Americans become middle-class and assimilate non-Hispanics they remain Democrats. The only Mexican-Americans drifting R are those finding their way into evangelical Protestantism.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Because Gary Johnson was on the ticket in 2016 + native American swing to democrats

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And I think NM is showing signs of hope for Republicans. While Mark Ronchetti did not outperform Trump by much, he still did and he was not alone, as Yvette Herrell, who voted to object to the election results Mind you, only lost by 1 compared to Trump losing by six. It's certainly a more worthwhile investment for the Republicans than Maine or New Hampshire

And in hindsight, as painful as it is to admit, attacking Lujan Grisham over the sexual assault allegations probably did absolutely nothing to help him. People simply cannot accept a woman is capable of such.

[pbrower2a]

New Mexico by and large is a very poor state not too dissimilar to WV MS or AR. The difference is the western states are by and large much more secular/culturally left leaning. I do think there’s a hard floor around 41-42 for the gop that would prevent a complete collapse like we’re seeing in real-time in CO.

That doesn’t explain the divergence of NV/NM, but that’s my take. NV was always less Dem than NM.

But why does being secular alone effect the political landscape of the state more so than all the other points I mentioned? Like not every republican is religious especially outside of the south. Same goes for their politicians.

Despite being similarly poor, New Mexico and West Virginia vote almost opposite each other. The difference is that the poor in New Mexico are heavily Mexican-American or First Peoples. In West Virginia the poor are largely white and Anglo and associated with the Mountain South.

The Mountain South (Appalachia and the Ozarks) has been the most anti-intellectual part of America. This is Li'l Abner country and the home of Jed Clampett. As someone not from the area I would have thought The Dukes of Hazzard to likely be insulting -- but the characters were beloved there. Annie Oakley may be from Ohio, but she is from the mountainous (by Ohio standards) southern part. Go figure.

The culture of the Mountain South is persistent as any culture in America, and the only time when it is liberal in voting such reflects a majority of people involved in some labor-intensive industry such as mining. Just check David Hackett Fischer's Albion's Seed and you will see the pattern.

Mexican-Americans irrespective of economic status are almost never hostile to formal learning. The GOP now is, with the infamous quip by Donald Trump that he "loves low-information voters".

[pbrower2a]

Addendum: New Mexico's rural areas are thinly populated. See also Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah.