The Great Greek Train Wreck.

[oldtimer]

Looks like the greek legislative elections (there will be two) will be pushed to May 21st and July 2nd, so the opinions polls are currently been as bad for the government as expected.

[President Johnson]

Looks like the greek legislative elections (there will be two) will be pushed to May 21st and July 2nd, so the opinions polls are currently been as bad for the government as expected.

Has ND lost its consistant polling lead since 2019? I checked the Wikipedia page just earlier today and there wasn't any new survey included.

It's basically a race which party comes out on top because the first vote getter receives an additional 50 seats in parliament (250 allocated by the actual vote and 50 on top for the party that comes in first).

[oldtimer]

Looks like the greek legislative elections (there will be two) will be pushed to May 21st and July 2nd, so the opinions polls are currently been as bad for the government as expected.

Has ND lost its consistant polling lead since 2019? I checked the Wikipedia page just earlier today and there wasn't any new survey included.

It's basically a race which party comes out on top because the first vote getter receives an additional 50 seats in parliament (250 allocated by the actual vote and 50 on top for the party that comes in first).

The government was waiting for it's private surveys before making a decision to launch or abort.

They aborted, so logically the surveys are as bad as you can expect after something this big.

As for the electoral system.
The greek constitution maybe like swiss cheese that no one really serves any attention to (at least legally these days).
But one thing is still observed, and that is the right of the government to change the electoral system by simple majority under the provision that it will be enacted for the election after the next one.

So the elections of May 21st will be under the Tsipras system (PR, 3% threshold, + the Mitsotakis right to ban parties), practically 48% needed for a government.

The elections of July 2nd under the Mitsotakis system (PR, 3% threshold, right to ban parties,  + extra seats that gradually increase until reaches 50 over a certain percentage of votes), practically 38% for a single party, 40% for coalitions.

[Mike88]

Public opinion polls should also appear in the next few days, I believe. The last one is from mid February.

[Mike88]

Looks like the greek legislative elections (there will be two) will be pushed to May 21st and July 2nd, so the opinions polls are currently been as bad for the government as expected.

Has ND lost its consistant polling lead since 2019? I checked the Wikipedia page just earlier today and there wasn't any new survey included.

It's basically a race which party comes out on top because the first vote getter receives an additional 50 seats in parliament (250 allocated by the actual vote and 50 on top for the party that comes in first).

The government was waiting for it's private surveys before making a decision to launch or abort.

They aborted, so logically the surveys are as bad as you can expect after something this big.

As for the electoral system.
The greek constitution maybe like swiss cheese that no one really serves any attention to (at least legally these days).
But one thing is still observed, and that is the right of the government to change the electoral system by simple majority under the provision that it will be enacted for the election after the next one.

So the elections of May 21st will be under the Tsipras system (PR, 3% threshold, + the Mitsotakis right to ban parties), practically 48% needed for a government.

The elections of July 2nd under the Mitsotakis system (PR, 3% threshold, right to ban parties,  + extra seats that gradually increase until reaches 50 over a certain percentage of votes), practically 38% for a single party, 40% for coalitions.

From what I've read in some Greek newspapers about these private polls, using Google Translator, is that ND continues to lead Syriza, but the number of people more wiling to change their mind, and very critical of the government, grew a lot and that it makes things more unpredictable. Also that PASOK has been more critical of SYRIZA and wants to form a ND-PASOK coalition after the elections. However, ND rejects this proposal and prefers a second election.

[oldtimer]

Looks like the greek legislative elections (there will be two) will be pushed to May 21st and July 2nd, so the opinions polls are currently been as bad for the government as expected.

Has ND lost its consistant polling lead since 2019? I checked the Wikipedia page just earlier today and there wasn't any new survey included.

It's basically a race which party comes out on top because the first vote getter receives an additional 50 seats in parliament (250 allocated by the actual vote and 50 on top for the party that comes in first).

The government was waiting for it's private surveys before making a decision to launch or abort.

They aborted, so logically the surveys are as bad as you can expect after something this big.

As for the electoral system.
The greek constitution maybe like swiss cheese that no one really serves any attention to (at least legally these days).
But one thing is still observed, and that is the right of the government to change the electoral system by simple majority under the provision that it will be enacted for the election after the next one.

So the elections of May 21st will be under the Tsipras system (PR, 3% threshold, + the Mitsotakis right to ban parties), practically 48% needed for a government.

The elections of July 2nd under the Mitsotakis system (PR, 3% threshold, right to ban parties,  + extra seats that gradually increase until reaches 50 over a certain percentage of votes), practically 38% for a single party, 40% for coalitions.

From what I've read in some Greek newspapers about these private polls, using Google Translator, is that ND continues to lead Syriza, but the number of people more wiling to change their mind, and very critical of the government, grew a lot and that it makes things more unpredictable. Also that PASOK has been more critical of SYRIZA and wants to form a ND-PASOK coalition after the elections. However, ND rejects this proposal and prefers a second election.

The consensus for years was another ND-PASOK coalition after the second election, but that temporarily changed during the spy scandal, only to return after PASOK was the only opposition party to side in favour of the Right to Ban Parties.

There was speculation that Tsipras could build a large center-left coalition if it hits 48% in the first election.

All greek parliamentary party leaders are unpopular and scandal burdened, that makes coalitions easier, but also makes the electorate a bit unpredictable if the always existing anger boils over as it happened in 2012.

[oldtimer]

There is a general strike tomorrow and the government has been trying to clamp on dissent for a few days now.

It could be the return of the Athens Riot Cam.

On more specific news, PASOK has suspended one of it's MP candidates from it's list, after it was revealed that he provided phony diagnosis papers to Rail Station Managers, so that they can go on holiday on sick leave.

Also there have been proposals from government advisors to postpone the elections beyond the mandatory constitutional date of Aug 13th.

Again I have never seen a greek government this desperate to retain power since 1989, and they looked desperate even before this disaster.

[oldtimer]

You know about the old joke about a bank robber robbing the bank, I mean stealing the building itself ?

Well now we have train robbers who literally stole 6 whole trains, carriagies included, and sold them for scrap.

The newspapers report that greek rail workers had joined gypsy gangs to rob the railways of anything metallic for years now, costing hundreds of millions worth of damages to the rail network, including missing trains.

[oldtimer]

The Traffic Director of the Greek Railways has died in a traffic accident when his motorcycle (a 66 year old on a motorcycle ?) hit the back of a van during an attempt to overtake it.

That's a setback for the investigation into the train disaster.

It's not uncommon in Greece for witnesses in major criminal investigations to die in a variety of circumstances, the average length of a trial in Greece is just under a decade and a lot can happen in that time.

But it will fuel conspiracy theories, and again I always considered it unlikely that a proper investigation was ever going to happen.

[Mike88]

The Traffic Director of the Greek Railways has died in a traffic accident when his motorcycle (a 66 year old on a motorcycle ?) hit the back of a van during an attempt to overtake it.

That's a setback for the investigation into the train disaster.

It's not uncommon in Greece for witnesses in major criminal investigations to die in a variety of circumstances, the average length of a trial in Greece is just under a decade and a lot can happen in that time.

But it will fuel conspiracy theories, and again I always considered it unlikely that a proper investigation was ever going to happen.

Well, indeed it's a coincidence that could raise eyebrows. I don't think it's that uncommon to see 60 year olds on a motorcycle. Here in Portugal, I see many, mainly fishmongers, driving their vespa motorcycles around.

[oldtimer]

The Traffic Director of the Greek Railways has died in a traffic accident when his motorcycle (a 66 year old on a motorcycle ?) hit the back of a van during an attempt to overtake it.

That's a setback for the investigation into the train disaster.

It's not uncommon in Greece for witnesses in major criminal investigations to die in a variety of circumstances, the average length of a trial in Greece is just under a decade and a lot can happen in that time.

But it will fuel conspiracy theories, and again I always considered it unlikely that a proper investigation was ever going to happen.

Well, indeed it's a coincidence that could raise eyebrows. I don't think it's that uncommon to see 60 year olds on a motorcycle. Here in Portugal, I see many, mainly fishmongers, driving their vespa motorcycles around.

That it wasn't a vespa, but a very high powered motorcycle.

Anyway the opposition newspapers already have published that the death was suspicious, some go the full way in saying it was to silence him, while other newspapers are busy with a relative minor scandal of a Deputy Minister and his bank loans.

Again deaths during major criminal investigations are a common thing in Greece.

And of course the elections have been officially announced for May 21st.

[Mike88]

And of course the elections have been officially announced for May 21st.

Already updated the International elections thread.

[oldtimer]

The video from a security cam that recorded the incident of the death of the Director has been made public: