TL: Long Live the Four Parties System: 1980 Peru

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EL NUEVO MERCURIO: 31 JUNUARY 1980

AN UNITED LEFT

In Cusco, the leaders of all of the socialist and communist parties currently in the Cosntitutional Assembly finally agreed on forming an united party. The writer of the popular book "The Owners of Peru", Carlos Malpica, was designed as presidential candidate. The well know teacher union leader Horacio Zeballos was designed as first vicepresidential candidate. Mohme as second VP completes this ticket, which expects to be competitive enough to at least help to form a strong congressional caucus.

The fall of rightist Aprism

The center right wing of the APRA supported Townsend, but the party leaders decided to follow instead the principles of their 1979 constitution. The populist Armando Villanueva was selected as the presidential nominee. To unite the party, Townsend was selected as first VP nominee, but the aprism platform ended up following the old "bread with freedom" principles. The second VP candidate, Negreiros, declared it a "pragmatic social democrat platform". Aprists will continue with their usual word play rethorics, let's hope they try to learn some things from proper and honest socialdemocrats like Schmidt for the good of our country.

Our loved mayor

It's not surprise that the PPC had to nominate their founder and strongest name, "El Tucan' Luis Bedoya, to president. His moderate conservative brand will try to appeal this election to small business owners, pious catholics and profesionals, but his party will focus on his récord as mayor. His popularity in Lima breaks party identities and, after years of militar nationalism, young peruvians want a change. Whatever happens, we are sure that this christian democrat party will be the most voted in San Isidro.

Belaunde is Back

The former president comes back for the elections. His previous runs were all strong, but he is no longer the young voice of reformism. He's now 68 years old, and he already had 5 years as president with a mixed and controversial record.  One strong point is his moderate platform, focused on infraestucture building and moderate privatization after the Velasco regime and the current Morales Bermudez goverment.

POLLS

The polls were done before the formation of Izquierda Unida (United Left):

Lima Department:

Acción Popular 33%
APRA 31%
PPC 23%
Left parties 11%
Other parties 2%

Peru:

Acción Popular 35%
APRA 32%
Left parties  16%
PPC 13%
Other parties 4%


NOTES ABOUT THE PARTIES:
(Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana) APRA: In the 1920s it was founded by Victor Raul Haya de La Torre. In the early 30s it consolidarse itself as a leftist party with revolutionary and anti imperialistas connotaciones, altrough with anticommunist tones, in favor of proper liberal democracy annd being mostly based in the ideas of its founder. The party had a semi civil war with the Sanchez Cerro regime after thhe controversial 1931 elections. It was banned, but had strong popular support. By the 40s it consolidated bases in the northern departments. In their local headquarters they even offered haircuts. Their supporters created a shadow party for the 1945 elections and allied with moderate presidential candidate Bustamante. By this time, the APRA tras trying to reach a social democrat image. Bustamante won and governed with the APRA, but later suffered a coup.
At the end of the Odria regime, they allied with the right winger and former president Prado. The partty eladers offered their support for the 1956 elections in exchange for legalization. After Prado won, they started a process of moderation. By 1962, APRA and Prado supporters were united and the party also had a good relationship with Odria supporters and their conservative party (UNO). By this time, some leftist supporters left the party creating short lived radical groups. The APRA won a plurality in the 1962 presidential. The congress was supposed to decide the election, but then the militars did a coup. On the 1963 elections, APRA finally lose agaisnt AP. It came back for the 1978 Cosntitutional Assembly elections, getting a plurality.
It also calls itself PAP (Partido Aprista Peruano).

(Accion Popular) AP: It appeared for the 1956 elections with other name, Led by Fernando Belaunde, a reformist with upper class roots, it run a populist platform, unitying moderates and some leftists. The conservative Odria regime tried to stop it, but failed. It lose the elections but got a good number of congress seats. Later, AP run again for the 1962 elections, where they got a close second place. In the 1963 elections, it won it all, allied with DC. Its goverment was mixed. It advanced agrarian reform, but in a limited way. After a economic crisis and the page 11 scandal, it failed to a coup by Velasco. It avoided to participate in the 1978 elections. By 1980, its leftists supporters leaved the aprty and created the APS (Accion Popular Socialista), which later united with the IU.

(Partido Popular Cristiano) PPC: Its predecesor, the DC appeared in the late 60s as a christian democrat party
It allied with AP after the 1962 election. It run Luis Bedoya for the first Lima mayoral elections in 1963, winning agaisnt the APRA-UNO candidate. Later, the popular Bedoya created his own party (PPC) with the right wing of the DC, leaving the left wing of it with a small party. Bedoya won reelection for mayor in 1966 just before the creation of PPC, but then the coup ended his period as mayor. It run in the 1978 elections, getting second place.

(Izquierda Unida) IU: A union of socialist and communist parties, most of them marxist influenced but in favor of liberal democracy.  Those parties runned separately in the 1978 elections, getting a good number of seats if united and helping APRA to write the 1979 constitution. In OTL it appeared after the 1980 elections. It dissapeared in the 90s.

Who's Velasco?: During his regime (1968-1975), Juan Velasco run a nationalist goverment. He expanden agrarian reform to all cases, ending peasant serfdom but hurting the agrarian sector. He supproted the previously rejected native lenguajes, especially quechua. He nationalized mines, factories and other business (including media). He expanded the military and united Peru with the NOM.  By the way, his regime was also represive.  He recieved a coup by Morales Bermudez in 1975, after years of economic crisis. The New regime continued the represión until a general strike in 1977 and foreing preasure made Morales start a transition.

Who were Odria and Prado?
Manuel Prado was a upper class conservative. In his first period as president (1939-1945) he governed allied with all the upper class.  Later, he run for the 1956 elections with a similar platform, altrough a part of the upper class allied with another candidate. He finally won with APRA support.
Manuel Odria was a conservative militar. He run a populist right wing regiwm between 1948 and 1956. He got popularity with his pro infraestucture, anticommunist and Tarma loving policies (he was born in Tarma, a small city). His regime was full of represion and he got some favor of part of the upper class. Later, he formed his UNO party for the 1962 and 1963 elections. It got a good number of seats then, but losed support after the Velasco regime and the death of Odria in 1974.

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EL NUEVO MERCURIO: 15 FEBRUARY

The Lamb Lies Down on Chincha

The elections are in May, but PPC have already started its campaing. Bedoya will tour all the southern coast, from Cañete to Tacna. He has been seen filming an ad with festejo musicians in Chincha. Meanwhile, in Lima, young PPC supporters are filming ads for the party with songs in english. They used each song for a video. Before the final ad is selected by the party and put on TV, we can tell you some of the songs used: "Staying Alive" by the Bee Gees, "More than a Feeling" by Boston and "The Lamb Lies Down on Bradway" by Genesis.
Are these young PPC supporters out of touch with the average peruvian? We will know after election day.

The New Revolution

Alfonso Barrantes is one of the most popular Izquierda Unida (IU) leaders. He plans running for Lima mayor when the municipal elections come back, a promise by all the major presidential candidates. In a mitin in El Rimac, supporting congress candidates, a local man asked him if he considered himself or his party revolutionary. He responded: "In this country, an honest goverment is revolutionary. We promise to work for that revolution." Barrantes is as leftist as Malpica and Zevallos, but his moderate rethoric can attract voters in Lima.

Polls

NATIONWIDE POLLS

PRESIDENT:
Acción Popular (AP): 32%
APRA: 29%
IU: 19%
PPC: 17%
FRENATRACA: 1%
Other parties: 2%

SENATE:
AP: 33%
APRA: 32%
IU: 20%
PPC: 12%
FRENATRACA: 2%
Other parties: 1%

DEPARTMENTWIDE POLLS

Projected disputes seats from main departments

Lima (City)
AP 14
APRA 11
PPC 8
IU 7

Piura:
APRA 4
AP 3
IU 2
PPC 2

La Libertad:
APRA 7
AP 2
IU 1
PPC 1

Junin:
AP 5
IU 3
APRA 2
PPC 0

Cajamarca:
APRA 5
AP 3
IU 2
PPC 0

Arequipa:
AP 4
IU 2
PPC 2
APRA 1

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EL MERCURIO PERUANO: 29 FEBRUARY

On the Issues

You need an informed vote, so we present you the positions of each major party on important issues of today.

Privatizations of State Owned Manufacturing Business:

All agree: Privatizise state owned markets, but mantain subsidies on core products like bread, chicken meat or milk.
PPC: All of them outside some refineries
AP: Most of them, expect refineries and some "core industries"
APRA: Only agroindustry
UI: None of them

Economic Policy:

All agree: Measures to support poor farmers.
PPC: Less welfare and less regulations. Support core infraestucture.
AP: Less regulations. Progressive infraestucture policy. Pro manufacturing policies.
APRA: Increase welfare. Pragamtic infraestucture policy. Pro agribusiness policies.
UI: Increase welfare. Support industrialization. More labor regulations.

Monetary Policy:

PPC: Central Bank full independence and orientation to low inflation.
AP: Central Bank oriented to long term economic growth and low inflation
APRA: Central Bank oriented to low unemployment and economic growth
UI: Central Bank oriented to low unemployment

Decentralization:

All agree: Let the people elect majors.
PPC: More % of the budget to mayors.
AP: More budget and power to mayors.
APRA: Create department governors. Give them at least 3% of the budget.
UI: More % of the budget to rural mayors.

The Real Young Vote

The "PPC youth" ad, themed with a Grease song, ended up with mixed results. Even if the ad was filmed in Pueblo Libre (and not in Miraflores), some feel it's out of touch with the average peruvian. In Pacasmayo, La Libertad APRA supporters filmed another ad themed with both salsa and marinera. Acción Popular young college student supporters filmed their own ad, but it was only focused on issues like education and the economy.
In UNI we asked college students on who they will vote. These are the answers. Note: We give foctional names, as the vote is secret.
JULIO: My parents support APRA. They are from Trujillo. To me, aprists are better than Belaunde or those far leftists.
LUCAS: I stand by the UI. Even as a future civil engineer, I will continue being a worker
TOMAS: I'm between AP and PPC. Some friends call me a class traitor, but I don't care about that. I care about my future as a mine engineer.
PEDRO (quietly): To my marxist teachers, I say that I support the UI. To the rightist teachers, I say that I support PPC. I will vote for the AP. I want a state big enought that I can work within, but small enought to not scare away foreing investors.
LILIANA: I don't understant how some fellow students are so radical. I will vote for whatever party but the UI. My mother used to be an Odria supporter and my father is an aprist. Today, I want to focus on my studies.
ANA: My familiar used to support AP, but now we and other supportest have left the party. At forst, we formed the APS party, but now we are united with fellow socialists in the IU. I will vote for a party that actually cares about the countryside and the poor.

The Puno Question

In Puno, the regional FRENATRACA party seem to dominante all statewide polls. Their platform is a fussion of moderate left wing economic policies and aymara interest policies...

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EL MERCURIO PERUANO: 29 FEBRUARY

Polls

NATIONWIDE POLLS

PRESIDENT:
Acción Popular (AP): 32%
APRA: 26%
IU: 21%
PPC: 20%
Other parties: 1%

SENATE:
AP: 31%
APRA: 27%
IU: 20%
PPC: 19%
FRENATRACA: 2%
Other parties: 1%

DEPARTMENTWIDE POLLS

Center Región Polls

Projected disputes seats from these departments

Lima (City)
AP 12
PPC 10
APRA 9
IU 9

Junin
AP 5
IU 3
APRA 1
PPC 1

Ancash
APRA 3
AP 3
UI 2
PPC 1

Lima Province
AP 4
APRA 3
UI 1
PPC 1

Callao
APRA 2
AP 2
PPC 2
UI 1

Ica
AP 3
APRA 2
UI 1
PPC 0

Huanuco
AP 2
APRA 1
PPC 1
UI 0

Huancavelica
AP 2
UI 1
APRA 0
PPC 0

Pasco
AP 1
UI 1
APRA 0
PPC 0

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EL MERCURIO PERUANO: 15 MARCH

Malpica: folk star

In Cajamarca, a traditionally APRA leaning city, the IU candidates celebrated a big rally. The audience was initially mostly college students and local peasant/farmer leaders. Then, the local popular huayno singer "Indio Mayta" appeared. Twenty minutes later, the ground of the  stadium were the rally was celebrated became full. The rally became a mix of songs and statements from the candidates. At the end, Zevallos said "The old stars and the old shovels are not enough. We now have new stars and new shovels. We will work for the farmland and for education, not for old leaders and financial backers."

The Boss' Media
During the Velasco years, the goverment expropriated some famous newspapers like "El Comercio". In the last week, these state owned papers have focused on gaffes from all presidential candidates. As the Free media parodied some of these attacks, the president Morales Bermudez responded to a journalist "My party is the country. I support no candidate and I want to make it clear."  The next day, "El Comercio" put on its spotlight "Don't believe the "honest Fernando" myth: remember the eleven page". Meanwhile, the state owned "Correo" said "Is Armando Villanueva a buffalo? We show you his story in the these pages."

The toucan of the jungle
In a special effort, PPC has raised enought money to borrow a private jet. He will use it to través to the Amazon cities, where AP is popular. Between Iquitos, Nauta and Contamana he combined his usual platform with jokes on his "toucan" nose and Amazon oriented policies. He promised to support the modernization of airports amd subsidies of commercial flies between those cities and Tarapoto.
PPC's idea is to finish the Cajamarca - Tarapoto highway. Meanwhile, AP campaings on a Cajamarca-Iquitos highway and the finishing of the "Marginal Highway" on the high jungle from the northern to the southern border. APRA campaing on a intermediate solution for the issue. Meanwhile, IU focus on airports on base of a respect for the native tribes. Recently, they promised very high subsidies for the flies.

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EL MERCURIO PERUANO: 15 MARCH

Polls

NATIONWIDE POLLS

PRESIDENT:
AP: 27%
IU: 25%
APRA: 24%
PPC: 23%
Other parties: 1%

SENATE:
AP: 26%
APRA: 25%
IU: 24%
PPC: 22%
FRENATRACA: 2%
Other parties: 1%

DEPARTMENTWIDE POLLS

Center Región Polls

Projected disputes seats from these departments

Lima (City)
AP 11
PPC 11
IU 9
APRA 9

Junin
AP 4
IU 3
PPC 2
APRA 1

Ancash
APRA 3
UI 3
AP 2
PPC 1

Lima Province
AP 3
APRA 2
UI 2
PPC 2

Callao
PPC 2
AP 2
APRA 2
UI 1

Ica
APRA 2
PPC 2
AP 1
UI 1

Huanuco
AP 2
APRA 1
PPC 1
UI 0

Huancavelica
UI 2
AP 1
APRA 0
PPC 0

Pasco
AP 1
UI 1
APRA 0
PPC 0

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EL MERCURIO PERUANO: 24 MARCH

Goodbye Polls

As you already know, there won't be a runoff in the presidential election this year. As the four major parties have posibilities of winning the election, the main newspapers have agreed to avoid polling the elections to avoid "tactical polling". This magazine will follow that.

The first debate

As the presidential candidatea continue campaining around the country, the first VP candidates had yesterday a debate.

Moderator: Some say young voters may define the election. What do you offer for them.
PPC: The first objective is to attact foreing investment so they can get jobs. Also, we will also invest in public universities, but in a way that help the majority of students focused in their future.
AP: We will fund both public colleges and technical schools. Also, they will get jobs from our construcción projects. We will focus on young females. They deserved clear oportunities outside their homes.
APRA: We youth needs a complete formation. We will impulse the formation of leaders at colleges and technical schools. Outside of that, we will protect their rights at work. We will give the poor youth jobs with our high enployment oriented economic policy.
UI: Out youth needs education and freedom. We promise to work on good superior education for the interior of our country. Also, we will protect the young leaders of the new movements that are appearing after years of repression.

Moderator: What's your platform on labor issues?
PPC: We will respect the right to unionize and other basic rights, but we need to reduce some regulations. Some say that the articles on labor issues of our new constitution are too restrictive. If the people agree with us on election day, we will change the current situation.
AP: My party has similar ideas, but we will try to avoid modifying the constitution at least in the first two years. If the facts at that point tells us we need to change it, we will do it. On the other hand, the right to strike is something that can't be compromised.
APRA: It's obvious that the right can't get away with banning strikes, but that doesn't mean they are on the side of the worker. Have you heard about those "right to work" laws on the United States? The APRA promise to fight agaisnt that kind of laws if someone propone them here.
UI: You, the working peruvian, already know that the UI is the party of the unions. We promise to always being in the side of the worker. At minimun, we will mantain the current legislation for the private sector and increase the rights of public sector teachers and medical workers.

Moderator: On foreing policy, should be continue on the NAM?
PPC: Our country should avoid entering the conflicts of the Cold War, but we may work for a better relationship with the USA.
AP: Being neutral is the best option in the current geopolitical situation. We need to get good relationships with all the countries we own money.
APRA: Anti imperialism is in the core of our party. We need to focus on our relationships with fellow non imperio countries. That being said, we may try to reach countries like France or Austria.
UI: Absolutely, but we should also try to mantain a good relationship with the USRR, obvioulsy focused on education and technological issues. But that doesn't mean we should reject the american ambassador.

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EL MERCURIO PERUANO: 24 MARCH

Remebering a 1979 rally

The last year, Bedoya and his PPC party celebrated a rally in Callao, the place of his childhood.
During the last weeks, PPC has run on TV an ad remembering one of his discourses there:
"Sadly, Peru's problem is not as simple as just distributing the wealth. That's not natural nor is the bitter reality. We have to produce more. Then, we will have more jobs. With more employment, the people will have the means to buy goods. Only with more goods brought, there will more production. Only then, there would be more factories, more employment and more saving. We need savings to have investments. With the investment, there will be more factories. With those new factories, there will be more jobs. Only this way have the great countries grow. Only working, no demagoges."

The other presidential candidates have commented on this ad:

Belaunde (AP): It's necessary to touch ground. It's important to support the private iniciative, but our country isn't the ideal world of a economic textbook. We need roads and other infraestucture to make investments viable for all cities and towns of our country.  We also need special policies to increase the number of factories here.
Villanueva (APRA): I can agree with the idea that continuing protests won't make our country rich. The problem is that some protests and strikes can be sometimes necessary. Also, we need some regulations to avoid letting the upper class ruling the country as their please.
Malpica (IU): We don't need those old discourses. We want to work, but with good conditions and wages. Also, if we just let foreing investors in they would invest in mines and crops as usual. We need to work from the state to the creation of new factories. It's time to invest our mineral richness on builting them.

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EL MERCURIO PERUANO: 31 MARCH 1980

The presidential debate.

The electoral season has usually focused on the economy, but as times change new topics appear.

Moderator: Candidates, I ask you. What do you think should be the place of women in society.

PPC: Personally, I still think the place of a woman is their houses, but I am not agaisnt the woman who works. I oppose discrimination agaisnt females at office jobs, but I win't create policies to change our society.
AP: I have a different perspective. Thousa de of young women are already studying in our universities. We need to put the conditions so both them and their male classmates can find good jobs. We also need to focus on the situation of female small business owners. We need to give them a fair treatment when they want to access to credit.
APRA: In our reality, thousands of poor married woman still have to work on the crop fields or in the house of a strange. We need to give their husbands better wages. Only then, we can start talking about the future of woman in the professional sector or in their own business.
IU: We need to work of women's rights a lot. This situation feels nearly the same as in the 60s, meanwhile things are changing in other countries. We need female engineers, female doctors. Female mechanics too. We also have to adress the lack of access to gynecologists.

Moderator: A PPC supporter ask: What's your stance on communist?

PPC: You already know that. I'm an anticommunist, but that doesn't mean that I will ban Marx books. On the other hand, we should get our public universities ried of marxist courses outside of some electives maybe for philosophy or social sciences.
AP: Odria called me a communist when I was running agaisnt him back then in 1962. Now, all of you know that I'm not one. My doctrine is working for our country as it always was. We agree that engineering or business college students shouldn't be reading Marx books, but universities need to keep their autonomy.
APRA: You know that our later founded sometimes sympathized with some marxist ideas. We want social justice, but we will never let our country become an stalinist regime. We agree with the necesity of giving universities full autonomy.
IU: We can learn one or two things from Marx, but we know that Peru needs peruvian solutions. We are the socialist party of Mariategui and we promise to respect free elections and democracy...

Then someone entered the debate. The send the moderator a letter and then disaapeared.
That strange person was masked. Security couldn't find him.

Moderator: Now, I will read this letter. Remeber, those are the words of the writer, not mine.
"This election is a farse. Our people deserve a clear and revolutionary path for a change. Don't vote."

Bedoya (PPC): We need to find that radical. I primise to work to keep this country safe.
Belaunde (AP): We need to stop this debate. My fellow candidates and me need security.
Villanueva (APRA): This may be a work of Mor..., I'm not sure. That cuban funded group?
IU: This is probably the work of a reactionary. Maybe one of those who still oppose agrarian reform. I may not be right, but we still need to find him.

Moderator: It's time to stop this debate. Production inform me that the police is already seaching that radical.
Goodbye, Peru.

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EL MERCURIO PERUANO: 31 MARCH 1980

Ads: Ideas or propaganda?

As all candidates will stop their campaing until the radical is found, televised ads will become every day more important. PPC may have the money to put more ads, but the goverment is giving air time for all major candidates.

Belaunde (AP) has two ads airing on TV nationwide:
1 - This first ad shows the infraestucture works of his first presidency. It also shows the municipal elections done during his goverment. Then, it moves to the various province level headquarters of his party, until showing the leaders of the party and other party members doscussing in the main headquarters of AP. It ends with white letters on a black canvas saying "Democracy is back, Belaunde is back".
2 - The second ad starts with a young man walking from his small town in the andes to a poor neightborhood in the outskirs on the city of Huancayo, Junin. Then, music appears and the ad starts showing the proposals of the party using maps, models and photos of the works done under Belaunde's first presidency. The ad ends with the young man smiling and looking for the future.

Villanueva (APRA) has two ads airing on TV nationwide:
1 - The first ad was filmed in Parque de la Exposición in Lima. It starts with a yoing man singing. As his song continues, thousends of other peruvians of various social classes unite with him. Then, Villanueva unites with him. The ad ends showing the song's title "APRA is the way".
2 - The second ad starts with old images of the late Haya de La Torre leading a massive rally. Then, it moves to a video of Villanueva leading a massive rally himself. Then, it moves to Villanueva's house where he reunites with the respected intelectual and APRA senator candidate Sanchez. They start a short discourse on the traditional principles of the party and their proposals for the next five years. It ends with white letters on a black canvas saying "Honor our party. Vote APRA".

Malpica (IU) has also two aids airing nationwide.
1 - The first ad starts showing the strikes of the 70s. Then, a voice says "We, the peruvians, gained ourselves back the right to vote for our leaders, now it's time to work for our future." After that, the ad moves to show the proposals of the party for both small farmers and the urban working class. The ad continues showing Malpica leading various rallies. The ad ends showing the logo fo the party as a vote says "vote for IU".
2 - The second ad starts with images of the late writer Arguedas and the late marxist Mariategui. Then, it shows Malpica holding his book "The owners of Peru" saying "It's time to get our country back from the old elites." Andean music starts to sound. Then, a collage of images showing prehispanic artifacts, archaeological ruins, peruvian peasants and small farmers, peruvian factory workers, peruvian teachers and andean musicians. Then, the sound moves to afroperuvian sounds, as the ad starts showing small merchants, college students, truck drivers, amazon natives, afroperuvian musicians, artisian fishers and young peruvian athletes. After that, both andean and afroperuvian sounds unite as the ad shows peruvian children playing happy. The ad ends saying "It's time to be the owners of our future, vote for IU."

The SNI, an important employers' organization, has also released an ad:
The ad starts with old machines on a factoring, showing the workers leaving the place at evening with worried faces. Then, big letters say "Privatization, Now". Then, it moves to a food procesor new factory on Ica, where the machines are new and the workers feel safe about their future. Then, it moves to the offices of the company owner of the factory, where the ambient is clean and modern too. It ends with black letters in a white canvas saying "It's time to choose".

Some of this ads had caused some controversy. Some say the APRA ads are too much style little substance. Others think the IU second ad is just propaganda. The same thing is said of the SNI ad.

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Well, I know peruvian history isn't something that interesting for non peruvians, but this would be the basic posibilities in each case any candidate wins:

Any president of Peru in the 1980-1985 period would need to afront:
- Economic problems and debt crisis
- Terrorist insurgency of the Shining Path (and MRTA)

PPC: A more rightist goverment, it would try to follow the Washington Consensus. This would end up in a not that bad economic situation, but also in major inequality that could help Shining Path to get some support.
Economic rightism would gey some support, but it would need a good campaing.
The goverment would do earlier and more efficient antiterrotist measures than the ones in OTL, but it would still be controversial.

(OTL) AP: The goverment would try to move to the right, but the more leftist sectors of the party would move them to other directions. At the end there would be bad macroeocnomic numbers (incl inflation), but it would also hurt the popularity of economic right ideas, even if the Washington Consensus wasnt actually followed.
The goverment would do a late, ineficient and controversial antiterritoist policy. This would end up hurting some innocent lives as Shining Path continues growing.

APRA: Basically a softer version of OTL Alan Garcia goverment of 1985-1990. It would end up with very high inflation, but the unemployment numbers wouldn't be that bad. Economic rightism would increase its popularity after this. Still, this goverment would favor Alan Garcias crazies ideas of OTL, altrought they could get sipport in congress of the rest from IU.
The directly goverment led antiterrorist measures would be just a bit more efficient less controversial than the ones in OTL, but the goverment would also support self defense rural groups (rondas). This would help a lot in fighting Shining Path.

IU: The goverment would try to go as leftist as possible, but they would have a hard time getting support at congress. This would end up in a not that leftist goverment. Unemployment would be higher but inflation would be lower. Economic rightism would increase its popularity after this.
The giverment directly led antiterorist measures would be earlier and a lot less controversial but also less eficient. Meanwhile, the goverment would support rondas a lot.
Shining Path would try to attack a lot of IU supporting social leaders. This actually happened in OTL, but it would be bigger by a lot in this case. This would help the party to get some support.

Posibilities of Mario Vargas Llosa running for president after each goverment:
PPC: He could try to run with PPC, but he would rival experienced politicians at the primary or convention. Then, he would have to do a neat campaing to make the run-off.
AP: The posibilities of him getting support would be low, so he wouldn't run.
AP and PPC were allied in OTL AP goverment of 1980-1985, so AP failures ended up hurting PPC and the economic right ideas on the 1985 election in OTL.
APRA: He could get major support. He could run with PPC or try to run with his own party (and then maybe ally with PPC and maybe even AP like he did in OTL in 1990).
IU: Basically the same.

In any case, there would be a funny situation for a game of 1985.

[wnwnwn]

EL NUEVO MERCURIO: 31 APRIL 1980

The last Accion Popular ad

Acción Popular (AP) has suffered in the polls after controversies on the supposed state mandated killings of natives in the Amazon during Belaunde's first goverment.
After this, Belaunde has stopped his presidential campaing, but the congressional candidates continue their own.
In a new ad, Paniagua (a deputy candidate) tells his story with the party. He talked about his young days as deputy before the Velasco coup (representative). Then, he moved to the 'core principles'of the party. The ad ended with images of a recent AP rally led by him.

The debate
The next sunday, Villanueva (APRA) and Bedoya (PPC) will participate in a final debate, as both are leading the preferences after the revelations on Belaunde.
On this, Malpica (IU) commented:
"I mantain a personal respect to both Bedoya and the APRA supporters and I understand how this situation benefits them. Now, I can't support nor endorse any of them. I will continue my campaing for the next week. Now, the media want you to choose between a decent but a bit out of touch man with wrong ideas or a semi-controversial politician who runs a populist amalgation of old leftist discourses and some rightist ideas. If you want an option who understand this country, has a clean récord, make clear stances and focus on the new challenges while not forgeting the old ones Mariategui wrote about, you can vote for me".