Trump Dies of COVID in Oct. 2020, what now?
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  Trump Dies of COVID in Oct. 2020, what now?
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Author Topic: Trump Dies of COVID in Oct. 2020, what now?  (Read 2936 times)
Lord Admirale
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« on: February 26, 2023, 05:31:31 PM »

Trump's COVID condition was much more serious than he let on. What if, for some reason, he's either given a false negative test or just refuses to be treated and stays in denial about COVID, and dies at around October 3, 2020. Mike Pence assumes the presidency per the constitution and is the first Vice President to fill out a president's term since Gerald Ford.

How drastically would the campaign change? Who would Pence appoint as Vice President? Would Biden still win the election? How bad would the conspiracy theories get about Trump? I could definitely see QAnon circles saying that Trump was assassinated/poisoned and that the ""deep state"" put Pence in charge. At the same time, anti-Trump Republicans may be more willing to vote for Mike Pence than for Donald Trump.
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Frodo
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« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2023, 06:30:38 PM »

The question we have to ask ourselves is whether Mike Pence's candidacy in the wake of President Trump's death will turn off more of Trump's diehard supporters than it attracts the NeverTrumpers.  I personally suspect the latter.  Given the narrowness of the election, I think Pence could have won the election in his own right. 
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Solid4096
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« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2023, 06:35:19 PM »

Something to keep in mind is that it would be too late to remove Trumps name from the ballot.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2023, 11:43:07 PM »

I think Pence would’ve won.
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paxamericana
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2023, 03:57:09 PM »



Think this would have been the map. A narrow Pence victory.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2023, 03:58:32 PM »



Think this would have been the map. A narrow Pence victory.
This is an electoral tie by 2010 census numbers.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2023, 05:34:30 PM »

Even though I'm one of them, I'm pessimistic that the number of anti-Trump Republicans returning to the fold could've made up for lower turnout among Trump diehards. I'm not sure Pence could've even held FL. Also, I think the incumbent party was doomed in 2020 unless they managed to handle COVID and George Floyd riots super-competently.
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2023, 05:37:06 PM »

How much of a sympathy vote would we have seen?
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paxamericana
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« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2023, 08:01:15 PM »



Think this would have been the map. A narrow Pence victory.
This is an electoral tie by 2010 census numbers.

Oh sh**t lol
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2023, 10:51:33 AM »



Think this would have been the map. A narrow Pence victory.
This is an electoral tie by 2010 census numbers.

Oh sh**t lol

Which still would’ve been a Pence victory so your not too far off
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« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2023, 10:58:35 PM »

Honestly think the sympathy vote gets Pence over the line.

I think Trump diehards turn out strongly as if we are being honest with ourselves certain people would celebrate Trump's death which would piss people off especially at the height of Covid.

Imagine the backlash to celebrations in San Fran, NYC etc,

He also gets some anti-Trump Republicans.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2023, 08:09:43 AM »

Honestly think the sympathy vote gets Pence over the line.

I think Trump diehards turn out strongly as if we are being honest with ourselves certain people would celebrate Trump's death which would piss people off especially at the height of Covid.

Imagine the backlash to celebrations in San Fran, NYC etc,

He also gets some anti-Trump Republicans.
I dislike Pence and would vote for Biden over him, but I agree with this.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2023, 10:29:29 PM »

Pence wins thanks to quite a bit of suburban reversion. I think downballot it helps Perdue avoid a runoff, and in the house gets Kean over the line at the least, and probably some other suburban Republicans like Freitas, Oberweis, McCormick, Hunt, and maybe a couple of others. Could have possibly flipped the house back.
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2023, 02:46:57 PM »

I think Pence loses
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Solid4096
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« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2023, 03:01:08 PM »

Keep in mind that polling showed a sizeable majority of people believed that Trump could have avoided the infection had he been more competent with his handling of the pandemic in general.

Anyways what I think would happen is that Trumps death would be seen as vindicating the position of those arguing for more aggressive action than what Trump had been doing by those who were previously skeptical, and Trump (it would still be him on the ballot, it would have been way too late to replace him) would lose by a greatly expanded margin.

In addition, due to Trump not being alive to frivolously claim fraud as impacting the results, January 6th goes by peacefully without an insurrection.
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BigVic
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« Reply #15 on: March 09, 2023, 01:22:30 AM »

Pence could win due to the sympathy vote but Biden will still win. Jan 6 2021 is just another ordinary day.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2023, 09:44:42 AM »

More so than pissing off die hard Trump supporters or generating a sympathy bump, I think the logistics of the election being a month away and Donald Trump's name being on almost all the ballots probably causes enough confusion to tank Republican turnout, or cause some rather weird splits or people writing in Pence's name instead.
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2023, 02:54:40 PM »

Pence wins thanks to quite a bit of suburban reversion. I think downballot it helps Perdue avoid a runoff, and in the house gets Kean over the line at the least, and probably some other suburban Republicans like Freitas, Oberweis, McCormick, Hunt, and maybe a couple of others. Could have possibly flipped the house back.

Not to mention also (with regards to Hunt) not butchering up Harris County as much as what happened in the last redistricting in Texas. The fact that Texas Republicans have had the majority for two-plus decades in Austin, yet still continue to a) play it safe with redistricting instead of learning to be aggressive like DeSantis and Florida have and b) continue to underwhelm with regards to passing conservative and Republican priorities in the Lege, is rather bewildering. I'm not saying become overreactionery, so-called "Christian Nationalist" nutcases, but governing on the principles, interests and values you claim to defend in campaign advertising makes a difference.

Also, with Trump gone, I can see a lot of the big suburban counties that went for Romney flipping the other way around and becoming RCP counties. Like a certain massive county that Ronald Reagan once touted as where "good Republicans go to die"... It also wouldn't shock me if Genevieve Collins was elected in lieu of Colin Allred in north Dallas's TX-32, and perhaps even an upset by Monica De La Cruz at the border over Vicente Gonzalez as well in TX-15. The things that could have happened if Trump were taken out of the equation, or at least stepped to the side for the sake of stopping a calamitous Biden-Harris ticket...
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2023, 04:34:12 PM »

More so than pissing off die hard Trump supporters or generating a sympathy bump, I think the logistics of the election being a month away and Donald Trump's name being on almost all the ballots probably causes enough confusion to tank Republican turnout, or cause some rather weird splits or people writing in Pence's name instead.

If I'm being one hundred percent honest, I think this would happen, and biden wins by default. All early mail in votes for trump have to immediately be discarded, and thousands of people who still vote "trump pence" probably do so thinking the counters would differentiate him being dead but they won't. The only votes pence gets are ones where they could change the ballot on time or he gets write ins, probably only netting him states where biden LITERALLY already a 0 percent chance of winning.

Morgan Kingsley -

March 28 2023
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patzer
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2023, 02:32:14 PM »



Think this would have been the map. A narrow Pence victory.
This is an electoral tie by 2010 census numbers.

Oh sh**t lol

Which still would’ve been a Pence victory so your not too far off

There is however the question of faithless electors
It just takes one person to flip from Pence to Trump Jr...

And that's not to mention how chaotic it would be if Trump's name can't get removed from the ballot in time
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #20 on: April 20, 2023, 01:54:06 AM »


President Mike Pence (R-IN) / Fmr. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC)
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) ✔

Most of the Trump movement would believe that the government had him killed and that Pence was complicit, probably, which electorally benefits Biden.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #21 on: April 20, 2023, 11:42:11 AM »

I don't think conspiracy theories would be any different ... most people who supported a less Draconian lockdown strategy were not COVID deniers, they were just a bit more practical about not having 110% tunnel vision, acting like stopping the spread of COVID was literally the only concern society faced and/or worth sacrificing nearly everything else indefinitely.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #22 on: April 26, 2023, 05:07:46 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2023, 05:20:26 PM by new_patomic »

More so than pissing off die hard Trump supporters or generating a sympathy bump, I think the logistics of the election being a month away and Donald Trump's name being on almost all the ballots probably causes enough confusion to tank Republican turnout, or cause some rather weird splits or people writing in Pence's name instead.

If I'm being one hundred percent honest, I think this would happen, and biden wins by default. All early mail in votes for trump have to immediately be discarded, and thousands of people who still vote "trump pence" probably do so thinking the counters would differentiate him being dead but they won't. The only votes pence gets are ones where they could change the ballot on time or he gets write ins, probably only netting him states where biden LITERALLY already a 0 percent chance of winning.

Morgan Kingsley -

March 28 2023

To be fair the ballots wouldn't be discarded but the logistics of how all this works isn't simple.

The Republican National Committee has to convene a meeting no earlier than 10 days (per their own bylaws) after Trump's death and only then, officially, can they declare Pence the nominee and whoever he wants as his VP. But given it's October and there's no way you're changing any ballots, you're still going have to ask people to vote for Trump for President.

Most states don't have faithless elector laws, and most that do have exceptions including for the untimely death of a nominee; though interestingly some including Oklahoma and North Carolina don't have any exceptions whatsoever. But they could probably change these laws before the electoral college meets if it comes down to it.

So the two avenues are, that in all scenarios you tell people a vote for Trump is a vote for Pence, so vote Trump. And either all of Trump's electors (or enough of them) vote for Pence and Pence wins, or the electoral college votes for a still-dead Trump and then, per the twelfth amendment, Pence immediately becomes President-elect given Trump's lack of life.

Given you're asking people to vote for a dead man so a live one can become President, I just don't really see it working.
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« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2023, 11:04:06 PM »

More so than pissing off die hard Trump supporters or generating a sympathy bump, I think the logistics of the election being a month away and Donald Trump's name being on almost all the ballots probably causes enough confusion to tank Republican turnout, or cause some rather weird splits or people writing in Pence's name instead.

If I'm being one hundred percent honest, I think this would happen, and biden wins by default. All early mail in votes for trump have to immediately be discarded, and thousands of people who still vote "trump pence" probably do so thinking the counters would differentiate him being dead but they won't. The only votes pence gets are ones where they could change the ballot on time or he gets write ins, probably only netting him states where biden LITERALLY already a 0 percent chance of winning.

Morgan Kingsley -

March 28 2023

To be fair the ballots wouldn't be discarded but the logistics of how all this works isn't simple.

The Republican National Committee has to convene a meeting no earlier than 10 days (per their own bylaws) after Trump's death and only then, officially, can they declare Pence the nominee and whoever he wants as his VP. But given it's October and there's no way you're changing any ballots, you're still going have to ask people to vote for Trump for President.

Most states don't have faithless elector laws, and most that do have exceptions including for the untimely death of a nominee; though interestingly some including Oklahoma and North Carolina don't have any exceptions whatsoever. But they could probably change these laws before the electoral college meets if it comes down to it.

So the two avenues are, that in all scenarios you tell people a vote for Trump is a vote for Pence, so vote Trump. And either all of Trump's electors (or enough of them) vote for Pence and Pence wins, or the electoral college votes for a still-dead Trump and then, per the twelfth amendment, Pence immediately becomes President-elect given Trump's lack of life.

Given you're asking people to vote for a dead man so a live one can become President, I just don't really see it working.

I don't think that is as big a problem as you think:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2014/10/01/five-people-have-won-election-to-congress-despite-being-dead/
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« Reply #24 on: September 05, 2023, 08:23:14 PM »

Pence loses, but by a slightly smaller margin, and the Republicans win the Georgia Senate races, I think.
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