The thread on thoughts over time as to how and when the Ukraine war will end

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It's clear that Putin can't admit a defeat as long as he's in power. He's just as afraid of heights as anyone else. There will be no grand peace treaty as long as he's alive.

Buuuut, as long as he doesn't admit a defeat, he can always claim his special military operation is going as planned. It's just like in 1984, where the war is waged in perpetuity not to actually gain territory, but for its own sake. Part of me thinks it's not in Putin's interest to see a Russian victory. Why? Because if there was one, there will be a generation of war heroes who could potentially threaten his power in the Kremlin. We saw how Putin choked off the Wagner Group, because Prigozhin had started hogging the attention. Putin can't allow any more war heroes to emerge.

From Putin's perspective, a loss of the four oblasts of mainland Ukraine might be a positive, since he would be able to purge the military of any potential rivals, and get rid of the Wagner Group and other private militia. At that point, he could then claim that the Kiev regime has been successfully denazified, and announce the next phase of the special military operation. In this case, the Russia-Ukraine border resembles the Korean DMZ, where no peace treaty is signed, but both sides agree not to wage any serious actions.

That would be a win-win for Putin. He could claim that Russia is at war and needs a strong leader as the helm, and hence justify building a police state. He can justify the country's economic problems on the perpetual war, and even stage false flag attacks by " Ukrainian terrorists". It will still be difficult for Ukraine to join the EU and NATO, when there's a simmering conflict on the eastern border. Best of all, the Europeans will lose interest in sanctions, and the oil money will flow again. Yes, the country will be a basket case, with its military little more than a parade force. And yes, there will probably be a civil war after Putin dies, but Putin is safe as long as he's alive.

I'm not sure about the Crimea, though. Putin can't afford to lose it, but if the Ukrainians reach the Azov Sea coast, they could simply fire missiles at the bridge and make Russian control over the Crimea increasingly untenable. But Putin will definitely do whatever he can to keep the Crimea. It's possible that the west will tell the Ukrainians to let go the Crimea for that reason.

Just a few cents.

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It goes without saying that Ukraine will need a lot of foreign aid, once we know that that reconstruction will not be subject to again be reduced to rubble. That will give America first people, and the usual suspects elsewhere, something else to complain about. May they all, in the absence of hell, be put on ignore.

On this point, as a citizen of a country that has been among the top per capita supporters of Ukraine, I will be skeptical about the tax dollars of western countries going to Ukraine's reconstruction, without a very, very critical condition: that the Ukrainian government must somehow make its own oligarchs and wealthy individuals to pitch in. Maybe the government can force them to buy reconstruction bonds, which they could sell on the secondary market after X years, or something similar. Just as the west only provided Ukraine with military assistance once Ukrainians demonstrated they were willing to put their lives on the line, the west should only provide Ukraine with economic reconstruction assistance if Ukraine's wealthiest people also put their own wealth on the line.