The thread on thoughts over time as to how and when the Ukraine war will end

[Dereich]

Obviously, for those who have seen my posts on the main thread for the war, I take a somewhat rosy view of where the Ukrainians currently stand. So this is my rosy perspective on how the war will develop.

I don't think a stalemate at approximately where the lines currently stand at is likely. Ukraine doesn't want that, obviously, but Russia doesn't either. Russian news, supporters, and the administration aren't painting what has happened so far as a mission accomplished, only as a step in the right direction. The ongoing Russian offensive and continued desperate attempts to seize Bakhmut at all costs are also good signs that the Russians aren't satisfied with the status quo either. Say what you will about Russia wanting to grind down the Ukrainian army, but with their subpar tactics and equipment I just don't think they have the men for that. I believe it was Woodbury who at one point a few weeks back derisively mentioned that the Ukrainians have received military aid well over the yearly Russian military budget. I'd bet we are  past the point where the average Ukrainian soldier is better equipped and in the totality of circumstances more capable on the battlefield than the average Russian one. People have raised a lot of concerns about potentially dwindling NATO stocks that can be supplied to the Ukrainians, but I don't think the infamously corrupt, inefficient, and above all else small Russian manufacturing sector is capable of increasing or even sustaining the current level of Russian military aggression for that long. It can already be seen that Russian artillery usage is way lower in this offensive than it was during their offensive last summer.  Western problems with armaments are ultimately much easier to solve than Russian ones because bureaucracy and indecision are much easier issues to deal with than lack of capacity, wealth, and manpower.

The only open question, to me, is what Putin does to avert the loss of more territory and make a good claim at winning. Since he can't fix his small and inefficient economy and his options for receiving large amounts of outside help are limited at best, the only choice is to throw more men at the problem. Is he willing to keep mobilizing new waves until there are enough Russians under arms to win at all costs? Clearly he can't just order as many as possible; just look at how almost no one from Moscow was mobilized. I don't think there's any doubt that he could just overwhelm the Ukrainians with another million men under arms, but he isn't going to do that. The need of Putin to avoid serious disturbances in the life of ordinary Russians for political reasons is what gives me the most hope for Ukrainian war effort.
 
My prediction is that the Russians continue throwing men at fortified Ukrainian positions in the Donbas for the next few weeks before being forced by losses, the weather, and the ability to declare victory after finally FINALLY taking Bakhmut to taper down their attacks. I expect when the Ukrainian offensive happens in March that it will, wherever it ends up being aimed, be successful at reaching the sea and cutting off the southern supply route. I think that further Ukrainian advances will push the line towards Donetsk and Crimea. Putin does order another round of mobilization, but it isn't enough to do more than make painful and slow advances in the Donbass and stop further Ukrainian progress. The war at that point turns into something like a stalemate with Russia eventually getting Crimea, most of Luhansk and about the half of Donetsk they control now plus or minus bits like Mariupol or Bakhmut. The Ukrainians get NATO membership in all-but-name including one-on-one security guarantees from several NATO countries and a fast track EU application process.