The thread on thoughts over time as to how and when the Ukraine war will end

[Frodo]

Ukraine ultimately regains most of its territory (the Donbas included), with the possible exception of the Crimea.  It ultimately becomes like Finland (prior to it joining NATO), with close ties to the West, having joined the European Union and with a close working relationship with NATO, but also maintaining relations with Russia out of sheer necessity despite the recent conflict.