The thread on thoughts over time as to how and when the Ukraine war will end (user search)
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  The thread on thoughts over time as to how and when the Ukraine war will end (search mode)
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Author Topic: The thread on thoughts over time as to how and when the Ukraine war will end  (Read 1465 times)
Virginiá
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« on: February 27, 2023, 04:28:51 PM »

I don't think if Ukraine would be able to retake Crimea in any scenario. The population there (except for the small remaining population of Crimean Tatars) is very pro-Russian, much more so than even in the Donbass. Thus Ukraine loses one of its best and strongest advantages in this war: fighting on friendly (at least more or less friendly in the Donbass) home turf in Crimea.

I see Crimea as much more realistic than reconquering the Donbass, simply because the latter borders Russia itself.

If Ukraine is able to cut the land bridge (big if..) they should by now have enough long range missiles to be able to stop most of the Russian supplies coming into Crimea by sea, air and across the bridge, if so the Russians (incl. the settlers) would eventually either have to leave or surrender. I don't see why Ukraine would have to actually invade Crimea to take it back, at least not before such an invasion would mostly be a mopping-up operation.

Crimea is even more ideal for a Kherson-style campaign to starve the Russian forces of resources than Kherson itself. The larger distance from mainland Russia and the huge amount of logistical support an active defense of the peninsula would require a lot of ships if the Kerch road & rail bridges went down. Note that Russian ferry services scaled down significantly following the opening of the Kerch bridge, so it's not as simple as just going back to what they did pre-bridge. Prices were pretty high for staples and fuel before the bridge, so I can't imagine what it would be with a huge military operation going on there and more limited shipping capacity.

This strategy is contingent on Ukraine reaching the Azov Sea coast and cutting the Russian's Crimean land bridge, and will require a lot of long-range missiles and drones, though. Not sure they can get all the types of weapons they would need, unfortunately. This is where Ukraine not really having a significant, operational defense industry is hurting their combat potential. On the upside, those GLSDB munitions with 150km range would be ideal for at least some of their objectives in a Crimea campaign, though.
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