This is a mathematical analysis based on how each state voted in the 2004 election, and current makeup of congressional delegations, and governors. To calculate this in Excel, I have assigned negative point values to the Republican party, and positive point values to the Democratic party.
First, each party is awarded a point for each state depending on how the state voted in the 2004 Presidential election.
Next, each party is awarded a point if both of the state’s senators belong to the same party.
For house majority and governorship, I am assigning less value. Each of these is worth half a point. Total possible: 3 points per state.
Here are the results:
-2.5 to –3 (Safe Republican): Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas, Utah. 92 electoral votes.
-2 (Strong Republican): Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, Oklahoma, Wyoming. 58 electoral votes.
-1.5 to –1 (Lean Republican): Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia. 103 electoral votes.
0 (True Tossups): Colorado, Iowa, Montana, North Dakota. 22 electoral votes.
1 (Lean Democrat): Arkansas, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, West Virginia. 29 electoral votes.
2 (Strong Democrat): California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont. 121 electoral votes.
3 (Safe Democrat): Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Washington, Wisconsin. 110 electoral votes (113 if we add D.C.).
Here is the map:
Comments?
(Please let me know if you notice any mistakes.)