Hill or High Water

[NewYorkExpress]

Hillary wins, Democrats show strength downballot





House of Representatives

GOP Gains: AZ-1, CA-7, FL-2, FL-18, MN-7, MN-8, NE-2.

Democratic Gains: AZ-2, CA-10, CA-49, CO-3, CO-6, FL-7, FL-10, FL-13, FL-26, IL-10, IN-9, IA-1, ME-2, MT-AL, NV-3, NV-4, NH-1, NJ-5, NY-19, VA-4.



Hillary Clinton's victory, confirmed today, three days after the polls closed, as the major news networks called Pennsylvania for her at 5:55 this evening, proved to be a singular accomplishment, as Clinton, who will be the first female President, rose from the ashes of her 2008 primary defeat to Barack Obama, and her controversial tenure as Secretary of State, to claim the highest elected office in America.

Downballot, Democrats pulled off several impressive surprises, with the biggest shocks of the night being John Gregg's victory in the Indiana Governor's race, Jim Gray's upset win in the Kentucky Senate race, knocking off Rand Paul and giving Democrats a 50-50 split in the Senate, and a majority with Vice President Tim Kaine's tie-breaking vote, and stunning House wins in Indiana and Montana, which have helped significantly narrow the majority of Speaker Paul Ryan in the incoming House of Representatives.

Clinton faces the challenge of assembling a cabinet, and of deciding whether to keep the nomination of Merrick Garland to replace Anthony Kennedy on the Supreme Court. Sources close to Clinton believe that Clinton will not retain Garland for the Supreme Court nomination, and will instead seek to appoint him as either Attorney General or head of the Department of Homeland Security.

Other rumored Cabinet appointments mentioned in the press so far include Vice President Joe Biden as Secretary of State, former Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm as either Attorney General or Secretary of Homeland Security, and former Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius as Secretary of Agriculture.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Jim "Chekhov's Gun" Gray

[NewYorkExpress]

Hillary Clinton's first piece of business was to assemble a cabinet.

The first key position to be filled, as with any President, was the position of White House Chief of Staff. Clinton chose to name a former Deputy Mayor to Michael Bloomberg, and her co-Chief Strategist in 2008, Howard Wolfson, to the position.

Clinton then turned her attention to some of the lower-profile offices, announcing Representative Seth Moulton as her pick for Secretary of Veterans' Affair's, the President of the American Federation of Teachers, Randi Weingarten as Secretary of Education, New York State Senator Andrea Stewart-Cousins as Secretary of Transportation, Representative Barbara Lee as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and that she would be retaining Tom Perez as Secretary of Labor.

Clinton also announced that she would be asking Congress to abolish the Department of Energy, and make the Enviornmental Protection Agency a stand-alone agency reporting directly to the President. Clinton's proposals would transfer all nuclear energy related sub-departments the responsibility of the Defense Department, and all other sub-departments not related to fossil fuels would be absorbed the EPA, while fossil fuel related subdepartments would be abolished in their entirety.

By the beginning of December, the remainder of her domestic policy team was announced, with Merrick Garland being her nominee for Attorney General, Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg as Secretary of Commerce, Georgia State Representative Stacey Abrams as Secretary of Agriculture, and outgoing Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin as Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Clinton's Foreign Policy Team was announced in Mid-December. The big announcement was that former President Barack Obama had agreed to become Secretary of State, a decision echoing Clinton's own appointment as Secretary of State after the 2008 election. Former Senator Evan Bayh would be the Director of National Intelligence, Retired Admiral James Stavridis would be the nominee for Secretary of Defense, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti would be the nominee for Secretary of Homeland Security, and former Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm would be nominated for the position of Ambassador to the United Nations.

[BigVic]

Good start.

[NewYorkExpress]

Good start. Will be interesting to see how she manages COVID

Who said COVID was happening in this universe?

[NewYorkExpress]

Both Clinton and Obama, still the outgoing President and awaiting an uncertain Senate confirmation for the position of Secretary of State (there were rumors that Joe Manchin was a likely no vote on his nomination, while of the Senate Republicans (both the incumbents and incoming members), only John McCain, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Ted Cruz had not already announced that they were voting against Obama.), faced an immediate crisis when Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to launch a nuclear weapon at a major United States city, believed by American intelligence to be either Boston or New York, if Donald Trump was not declared the winner of the Presidential Election and subsequently sworn in on January 20.

However, it would not be Obama or Clinton who would resolve this threat, but Trump himself, who, in an interview with Sean Hannity, stated that "I would never accept the Presidency because someone threatened to destroy half the country to install me. I would prefer to believe that I could win by my own merits and not because I am the puppet of some government. Tell Vladimir Putin to kiss my ass".

Faced with his hand-picked puppet not cooperating, Putin backed down, and began turning his attention to Russia's 2018 Presidential Elections.

Meanwhile, with Vice President-Elect Tim Kaine's resignation imminent (he'd set his resignation date for December 31, 2016) Governor Terry McAuliffe announced that former Governor and Mayor of Richmond Douglas Wilder would be appointed to fill the vacancy. Wilder would not run for reelection, effectively creating an open seat special election in 2017, a race McAuliffe was expected to run in.

Meanwhile, speculation about what outgoing Vice President Joe Biden would be doing for the next four years was answered when the Clinton Administration announced that Biden would be the Administration's nominee for the position of Ambassador to Ireland. According to the Vice President, he had preemptively declined a cabinet position, citing Beau's death and a desire to relax some, and had agreed on Ambassador to Ireland, after his first choice, Ambassador to the Vatican, was privately rejected by the Vatican in a conference between them and the Clinton Transition Team. Other key ambassadorships announced included former Representative Mike Honda as Ambassador to Japan, former Permanent Representative to NATO Ivo Daalder as Ambassador to China, and film producer Kathleen Kennedy as Ambassador to the United Kingdom.

[BigVic]

How does NC go to the left of WI?

[NewYorkExpress]

How does NC go to the left of WI?

Clinton still neglected the Midwest, as IRL, which is why she lost Wisconsin. As for winning North Carolina, Roy Cooper's coattails pulled Hillary over the line in the Tar Heel State.

[libertpaulian]

If Hillary wins NC, she wins FL.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Hillary wins NC, she wins FL.

Disagree. Trump is a really good fit for Florida in general.

[NewYorkExpress]

Towards the end of December, and continuing throughout the winter and early spring of 2017, New York Democrats faced a nightmare situation when three women accused Andrew Cuomo of sexually harassing them. One of them, former Politico reporter Jessica Bakeman accused Cuomo of sexually assaulting her in 2012 and again in 2015 in Manhattan.

On February 9, 2017, New York County District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr announced that Cuomo was being indicted for the sexual assault of Bakeman, and prosecutors successfully convinced a judge to have Cuomo remanded with no bail pending trial.

The New York State Legislature quickly moved to remove Cuomo from office and elevate Kathy Hochul to the Governor's mansion, with Cuomo's impeachment making through the Assembly unanimously, and 60-2 in the Senate (with Simcha Felder and David Valesky being the two no votes). Hochul for her part, selected New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer as the Lieutenant Governor to replace her, with the wide expectation that neither she nor Stringer would be running for reelection in 2018.

The last of Clinton's cabinet nominees was announced shortly before Christmas, with the nomination of Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen as Secretary of the Treasury, and former Federal Reserve Board member Sarah Bloom Raskin to succeed Yellen as Chair of the Federal Reserve. While Yellen was widely respected within both parties, Raskin's nomination, much like Obama over at the State Department, started out in deep trouble, as Republicans lined up against her immediately, as did Joe Manchin.

Clinton's first cabinet nominees, were confirmed the day after the new Congress was sworn in, as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell agreed to skip hearings and go directly to a vote on Andrea Stewart-Cousins, Evan Bayh, Eric Garcetti and Peter Shumlin, with Stewart-Cousins, Bayh and Shumlin being confirmed by voice vote, and Bayh being confirmed 88-10, and Garcetti being confirmed 81-15.

Clinton's other priority, the abolition of the Department of Energy, was also passed, exactly as the incoming administration had asked on January 19, as part of a deal between House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Schumer, in exchange for Democrats agreeing to provide enough votes in the House and Senate for an amendment to add a line-item veto to the Constitution (a personal project of Ryan's, and Newt Gingrich before him, and something that both Clintons endorsed, as did Michelle Obama of all people).

Meanwhile, Clinton was largely mum about who would be appointed to the Supreme Court vacancy, especially now that it would not be Merrick Garland. She sounded out Kamala Harris's interest in the seat (she wasn't interested), and ultimately announced, shortly after her inauguration, that she would appoint Ninth Circuit Appeals Court Judge Jacqueline Nguyen, making her the first Asian American nominated to the Supreme Court.

Nguyen's confirmation hearing wouldn't be until April, but she would perform well, and would ultimately be confirmed 56-44 (John McCain, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Rob Portman, Lindsey Graham and Lamar Alexander voting with all Democrats).

[NewYorkExpress]

Other than Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton's cabinet nominees were steadily confirmed throughout January and February. Even Sarah Bloom Raskin got through after a trio of Republicans (Lindsey Graham, Jeff Sessions and Cory Gardner) missed the vote entirely, leading to Raskin being confirmed 49-47. Obama, however had technically gotten to 49 votes (all Democrats except for Joe Manchin, who had not announced his position yet + Susan Collins), with John McCain and Lisa Murkowski still considering their position as of March 1, 2017. The final vote on Obama, held on March 8, was a 50-50 tie, broken by Vice President Kaine in favor of the nomination (all Democrats- Manchin+ Susan Collins voting Aye, all other Republicans-Collins+ Manchin, voting Nay).

The special elections in the House to replace Clinton's cabinet nominees, Seth Moulton and Barbara Lee, were held at end of April, and were essentially a referendum on Jacqueline Ngyuen's nomination to the Supreme Court.

In California's 13th District, the election to replace Lee was a battle between Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf and former State Senator Loni Hancock, 55-44, with a Peace and Freedom Party candidate picking up the remaining 1%.

In Massachusetts's 6th District, the race to replace Moulton was between former State Senator and two-time nominee against Moulton, Richard Tisei, and State Representative Lori Ehrlich, which Tisei won, 52-48, to mark a flip for the Republicans, in hard-fought campaign, that potentially foreshadowed major losses in 2017 and 2018 for Democrats. The win gave Republicans their first member of Massachusetts's Congressional delegation since Scott Brown left office, almost six years prior.

[NewYorkExpress]

John McCain's announcement in early summer that he had been diagnosed with a malignant and terminal brain cancer, and that he would be resigning his Senate seat by the end of the summer to focus on his treatment for said cancer, sent shockwaves, not just through Arizona, but through the Senate as well. McCain told CNN's Wolf Blitzer that his doctors had said that he had eighteen or so months to live if he remained a Senator, while he could live "three to four more years" if he did not.

Governor Doug Ducey had to make an appointment to replace McCain ahead of a special election, which would be held in 2018. This person must be a Republican, though given Ducey himself was a Republican, this was expected anyways. Speculation was that McCain's wife Cindy would be appointed to the seat, or possibly a Republican in the Congressional delegation such as Martha McSally. However, Ducey chose to appoint former Governor Jan Brewer on September 1, the same day McCain's resignation became effective. Brewer stated that she would run in the special election, but likely would not run in 2022 if she won, citing her own age.

Other the abolition of the Department of Energy, the big issues dominating the nation heading into the 2017 off-year elections was the proposed line-item veto constitutional amendment, which had cleared both houses off Congress, but faced an uncertain future at being ratified, with multiple state legislatures (California, Illinois) having already rejected it as election day approached, and speculation surrounding the job status of FBI Director James Comey, which had begun from the moment Clinton took office. So far, Clinton had not fired him, but she had taken umbrage with his investigating her over her emails while Secretary of State, and speculation was that he would be fired any day now.