Kentucky

[Skill and Chance]

Has it peaked for Republicans?  I know it wouldn't be remotely competitive in a presidential election anytime soon, but between Beshear and the 2022 results, I'm wondering if something has changed?

[Roll Roons]

I think so. 2020 was the first time Kentucky trended Democratic in a presidential election since 1992, and there is something to be said for that.

Most of the rural areas have become so Republican that there's just not much more that can be squeezed out, while Democrats still have room to gain in the Louisville, Lexington and Cincinnati metros.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Yes, Rs are probably maxed out but I doubt it gets remotely competitive on the Presidential level anytime soon. Maybe Dems can crack 40%?

[Alben Barkley]

I think so. 2020 was the first time Kentucky trended Democratic in a presidential election since 1992, and there is something to be said for that.

Most of the rural areas have become so Republican that there's just not much more that can be squeezed out, while Democrats still have room to gain in the Louisville, Lexington and Cincinnati metros.

Completely agreed.

I think Beshear will win re-election this year and his election map will be the pathway for Dems going forward in the state, combined with November's vote on the abortion amendment.