RI-01 Special Election Megathread

[Blue3]

There haven't been any announcements in a while, so I think we're good.

Cicilline's last day is almost here.

[NewYorkExpress]

Narangassett Tribal Elder Bella Machado Noka has become the seventeenth Democrat to either announce or file paperwork for this seat.

A Narragansett tribal elder has joined the increasingly packed race to replace Congressman David Cicilline, who is stepping down on June 1.

Bella Machado Noka announced Thursday she is joining more than a dozen Democratic candidates vying for the 1st District Congressional seat.

[Atlas Force]

So his resignation is official now. I believe the debt ceiling deal is the last thing he ever voted on.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So his resignation is official now. I believe the debt ceiling deal is the last thing he ever voted on.

Just in time for him to slay all of pride

[Zedonathin2020]

So his resignation is official now. I believe the debt ceiling deal is the last thing he ever voted on.

Just in time for him to slay all of pride

You're saying that as if George Santos, the most fantastic human being whom has ever graced our planet, hasn't yet beat him to it.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So his resignation is official now. I believe the debt ceiling deal is the last thing he ever voted on.

Just in time for him to slay all of pride

You're saying that as if George Santos, the most fantastic human being whom has ever graced our planet, hasn't yet beat him to it.

Santos is the one whose still in congress having to idk work and not WERK!

[Blue3]

Some candidates are starting to drop out now, like Nathan Biah, and a few more undecideds have ruled it out, like Pawtucket mayor Don Grebien.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who would Family Guy characters support amongst the candidates?

[Pollster]

Late to the party here, but I don't understand how anybody is polling this race right now/thinking strategically about it in any other ways. The field is so comically big for a special election primary electorate that is going to be so comically small. Never before will so much money be spent to persuade so few voters.

[Dr. Yakub]

Who would Family Guy characters support amongst the candidates?

Quagmire would vote for Walter Berbrick because of his family connection to the Navy
Meg would vote for Aaron Regunberg, she's young and angry at the world
Lois would vote for Pamela Azar, she hosted a barbeque for several Ba'athist leaders and has a wide variety of contradictory political stances ultimately centered on her identity as a mother
The casino owners from The Son Also Draws would vote for Bella Machado Noka
Peter would vote for Stephen Casey. He's a Family Guy.
Cleveland would vote for Marvin Abney

[Senator Incitatus]

Late to the party here, but I don't understand how anybody is polling this race right now/thinking strategically about it in any other ways. The field is so comically big for a special election primary electorate that is going to be so comically small. Never before will so much money be spent to persuade so few voters.

You should see a shareholder meeting.

[Blue3]

Late to the party here, but I don't understand how anybody is polling this race right now/thinking strategically about it in any other ways. The field is so comically big for a special election primary electorate that is going to be so comically small. Never before will so much money be spent to persuade so few voters.

Primaries are always more crowded and consequential here for any election besides governor.

[Blue3]

Endorsements, as of June 12th:



Walter Berbrick

Organizations

    New Politics[47]




Nick Autiello

Organizations

    LGBTQ Victory Fund (co-endorsement with Carlson)[48]




Gabe Amo

Federal officials

    Ron Klain, former White House Chief of Staff (2021–2023)[47]

Statewide officials

    Patrick Lynch, former Attorney General of Rhode Island (2003–2011)[49]

Local officials

    Xay Khamsyvoravong, mayor of Newport (2022–present)[33]





Sandra Cano

Statewide officials

    James Diossa, Rhode Island General Treasurer (2023–present) (Cano's fiancé)[36]

State senators

    Alana DiMario, state senator from the 36th district (2021–present)[33]
    Dawn Euer, state senator from the 13th district (2017–present)[37]
    Pam Lauria, state senator from the 32nd district (2023–present)[33]

State representatives

    Karen Alzate, state representative from the 60th district (2019–present)[33]
    Joshua Giraldo, state representative from the 56th district (2020–present)[33]
    Rebecca Kislak, state representative from the 4th district (2019–present)[33]
    Maria Perez, New Hampshire state representative from the 43rd district (2020–present)[33]




Donald Carlson

Local officials

    Annise Parker, former Mayor of Houston (2000–2016) and president of LGBTQ Victory Fund[33]

Organizations

    LGBTQ Victory Fund (co-endorsement with Autiello)[48]




Sabina Matos

U.S. representatives

    Linda Sánchez, U.S. Representative from CA-38 (2003–present)[51]

Statewide officials

    Elizabeth Roberts, former Lieutenant Governor of Rhode Island (2007–2015)[52]

State senators

    Myrth York, former state senator from the 2nd district (1991–1995)[52]

State representatives

    Grace Diaz, state representative from the 11th district (2005–present)[52]
    Ramon Perez, state representative from the 13th district (2017–2019, 2021–present)[52]

Local officials

    Kevin Aguiar, Portsmouth Town Council President[52]
    Christopher Beauchamp, Woonsocket City Council President[52]
    Nancy Beye, Jamestown Town Council President[52]
    Michael Burk, Tiverton city councilor[52]
    David Carlin III, Newport city councilor[52]
    Carmen Castillo, former Providence city councilor[52]
    Braxton Howard Cloutier, Barrington town councilor[52]
    Steven Contente, Bristol town administrator (Independent)[52]
    Annelise Conway, Barrington town councilor[52]
    Sean Kilduff, Smithfield town councilor[52]
    Mary Kay Harris, Providence city councilor[52]
    Robert Humm, Barrington town councilor[52]
    John Igliozzi, former Providence City Council President[52]
    Kevin Kazarian, Central Falls city councilor[52]
    Michael Kinch, Cumberland Town Council President[52]
    T. Michael Lawton, Smithfield Town Council President[52]
    Rafael Peguero, Central Falls city councilor from the 5th ward)[52] (co-endorsement with Quezada)[33]
    Juan Pichardo, Providence city councilor from the 9th ward and former state senator from the 2nd district[52]
    Michael Solomon, former Providence City Council President[52]
    Ana Vargas, Providence city councilor[52]

Individuals

    Eva Longoria, actress and director[53]
    Luis A. Miranda Jr., founder of Hispanic Federation and Latino Victory Fund board member[33]

Organizations

    CHC BOLD PAC[54]
    Latino Victory Fund[53]




Ana Quezada

State senators

    Jeanine Calkin, former state senator from the 30th district (2017–2018, 2021–2023) (her policy co-chair)[33]

State representatives

    Jose Batista, state representative from the 12th district (2021–present)[33]
    Scott Slater, state representative from the 10th district (2009–present)[33]

Local officials

    Rafael Peguero, Central Falls city councilor from the 5th ward (2022–present)[33] (co-endorsement with Matos)[52]
    Franklin Solano, Central Falls city councilor from the 4th ward (2016–present)[33]
    Justin Roias, Providence city councilor (2023–present) from the 4th ward[29]
    Pamela Azar, Lincoln town councilor[29]




Aaron Regunberg

State senators

    Chris Larson, Wisconsin State Senator from the 11th district (2011–present) and former Wisconsin senate minority leader[16]

State representatives

    Megan Cotter, state representative from the 39th district (2023–present)[55]
    Cherie Cruz, state representative from the 58th district (2023–present)[56]
    Leonela Felix, state representative from the 61st district (2021–present)[16]
    Kathleen Fogarty, state representative from the 35th district (2015–present)[55]
    Arthur Handy, state representative from the 18th district (2003–present)[57]
    Brandon Potter, state representative from the 16th district (2021–present)[57]

Local officials

    Helen Anthony, Providence city councilor from the 2nd ward (2019–present)[56]
    Susan Anderbois, Providence city councilor from the 3rd ward (2023–present)[56]

Individuals

    Steven Donziger, human rights lawyer[16]
    Howie Klein, former president of Reprise Records (1989–2001) and adjunct professor at McGill University[58]
    Heather Digby Parton, political blogger[58]

Organizations

    350.org Climate Action Rhode Island[33]
    Our Revolution[59]
    Rhode Island Working Families Party[60]

Labor Unions

    Communications Workers of America Local 400[47]







Also, former perennial Republican candidate Allen Waters has decided to boycott the first debate because there will be a transgender woman hosting.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/tednesi/status/1671488384974585857?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tbLk...

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Am I the only one who thinks Matos will win pretty comfortably in spite of how large the field is? She seems to be best positioned to win.

[Gracile]

Am I the only one who thinks Matos will win pretty comfortably in spite of how large the field is? She seems to be best positioned to win.

I think so too. The handwringing over the large field probably won't matter in the end given all the institutional support Matos is getting (nationally and locally), which could help her win over a large chunk of the undecideds.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Am I the only one who thinks Matos will win pretty comfortably in spite of how large the field is? She seems to be best positioned to win.

I think so too. The handwringing over the large field probably won't matter in the end given all the institutional support Matos is getting (nationally and locally), which could help her win over a large chunk of the undecideds.

This is starting to feel like a repeat of the MD-07 special election with Matos winning clearly, but not as lopsided with how Mfume is/was more established then Matos.

For reference that election had 24 candidates running, but only 9 getting more than 1%, and 4 only getting more than 5%.

[Blue3]

https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/2023/06/29/rhode-island-cd1-candidate-declaration-deadline-who-is-in-the-race/70368516007/


More than 30 potential candidates had filed paperwork to run for the First Congressional seat that former U.S. Rep. David Cicilline resigned mid-term.

The list of declared candidates includes 22 Democrats, 4 Republicans and 9 Independents, bringing the total to 35.

Some have been raising money and campaigning for months and some waited until the eleventh-hour to put their names in the mix.

Not all will necessarily appear on the ballot, however. In order to qualify, candidates need to collect at least 500 valid signatures on their nominating papers by July 14.

Below, you'll find a list of everyone who's filed a candidacy declaration.



Which Democrats have declared their candidacy?

House Finance Committee Chairman Marvin Abney, D-Newport

Former White House and Raimondo staffer Gabe Amo

Former White House and Commerce RI staffer Nicholas Autiello

Mickeda Barnes, a former RIPTA driver

Stephanie Beauté, a 2022 candidate for secretary of state

Former U.S. Naval War College Professor Walter A. Berbrick

State Sen. Sandra Cano, D-Pawtucket

Don Carlson, a renewable energy investor and law professor

State Rep. Stephen Casey, D-Woonsocket

Spencer Dickinson, a perennial candidate who also filed paperwork to run in Congressional District 2 last year.

Kathleen Gaskell

Providence Councilman John Goncalves

Larry James Hutchinson, Jr., who appears to have previously run for Michigan Secretary of State as a Green Party candidate

Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos

Gregory L. Mundy, a political unknown who does not appear to have run for public office before.

Paul LeBon, a frequent caller to talk radio and the author of books including, "Is spyhillis eating Trump's brain? It did Al Capone's after a 20 year gestation."

Bella Noka, a member of the Narragansett Indian Tribe who frequently speaks out about issues affecting tribal members. (In 2003, Noka and her husband were arrested during the infamous Narragansett Smoke Shop raid.)

State Sen. Ana Quezada, D-Providence

Former Rep. Aaron Regunberg

Toni Sfameni, who does not appear to have a public profile and is a political unknown.

Activist Michael Tillinghast, who says he is also running for president

Allen Waters, who previously ran for the seat as a Republican.




Which Republicans have declared their candidacy?

William J. LeBron Jr.

Gary Donald Fagnant, a first-time candidate, no public profile.

Terri Flynn, a former member of the Middletown Town Council

Gerry W. Leonard Jr. , whose LinkedIn profile states that he is an "operations expert" who lives in Jamestown and previously served as an officer in the U.S. Marine Corps.





Which independents have declared their candidacy?

Stephen G. Earle

Joseph Jean-Philippe

Jeffrey Edward Lemire, a past candidate for Providence mayor and the First District Congressional seat

Richard P. O'Shea

C. D. Reynolds

Paul Rianna Jr., a 2022 independent candidate for governor

John Dale Ritchie

Julian J. Smith

John S. Vitkevich

[smoltchanov]

As i see the list above: more then a clowncar of serious Democratic candidates (with Matos still being a relatively solid favorite), and essentially nothing on Republican and Independent sides.... Thanks!

[NewYorkExpress]

I have to admit, if Leonard Jr. wins the Republican Primary, he could outrun Trump's numbers by a decent sized margin. Rhode Island seems to like their military types (see Jack Reed, for example).

That said, it would take a double digit overperformance for any Republican to win, and that just isn't realistic, especially against Matos.

[NewYorkExpress]

Don't have a source because it's behind a paywall, but apparently Pamela Azar ended her campaign at some point and endorsed Ana Quezada.

[Blue3]

United Nurses and Allied Professionals, the state's largest health care workers union, has endorsed Sandra Cano. Mayors of Pawtucket and North Providence also endorsed Sandra Cano.

Congressional Black Caucus endorsed former WH staffer Gabe Amo.

Seems like these 2 are the upper tier for sure now, behind just Sabina Matos and Aaron Regunberg.


Boston Globe:

Today, United Nurses and Allied Professionals, the state's largest health care workers union, will endorse state Senator Sandra Cano in Rhode Island's First Congressional District race.

And the Congressional Black Caucus PAC will back former White House aide Gabe Amo in the race. Both hope to replace David N. Cicilline, who stepped down June 1 to lead the Rhode Island Foundation.

In a traditional congressional race, such support might be merely routine. But political observers say that in a low-turnout special election such as this one, when fewer than 10,000 votes could decide the winner, these types of endorsements carry extra value, especially when they come with on-the-ground support.

[Blue3]

Sabina Matos campaign being investigated for “possible” fraud with campaign signatures (500 were needed to get on the ballot), this also follows poor fundraising numbers.

https://www.wpri.com/target-12/jamestown-officials-investigating-possible-signature-fraud-in-race-for-congress?utm_source=wpri_app&utm_medium=social&utm_content=share-link

She may be the front runner, and I’d bet a volunteer either screwed up or some individual names were counted on more than one day, but she has a fragile lead and this shows it. She has statewide name recognition… but she was picked out of obscurity to be Lt. Governor when Raimondo left and McKee took over, and her first real election was still pretty competitive. I think the Regunberg, Cano, Amo, and Autiello campaigns are all more organized.

[NewYorkExpress]

Sabina Matos campaign being investigated for “possible” fraud with campaign signatures (500 were needed to get on the ballot), this also follows poor fundraising numbers.

https://www.wpri.com/target-12/jamestown-officials-investigating-possible-signature-fraud-in-race-for-congress?utm_source=wpri_app&utm_medium=social&utm_content=share-link

She may be the front runner, and I’d bet a volunteer either screwed up or some individual names were counted on more than one day, but she has a fragile lead and this shows it. She has statewide name recognition… but she was picked out of obscurity to be Lt. Governor when Raimondo left and McKee took over, and her first real election was still pretty competitive. I think the Regunberg, Cano, Amo, and Autiello campaigns are all more organized.

What are the chances Matos is thrown off the ballot?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

This is the stupidest special election ever.