RI-01 Special Election Megathread

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If Matos collapses it’ll be a free for all

[Blue3]

If Matos collapses it’ll be a free for all

It already is very open, she’s always been a fragile front runner.

I think most of her support goes to Sandra Cano. Similar demographic appeal, more organized, more legislative experience, already got key endorsements.

[Blue3]

Nick Autiello drops out, and even more controversy about signatures for Sabina
https://www.wpri.com/target-12/thats-not-my-signature-newport-residents-dispute-signing-matos-nomination-papers?

[Vosem]

Nick Autiello drops out, and even more controversy about signatures for Sabina
https://www.wpri.com/target-12/thats-not-my-signature-newport-residents-dispute-signing-matos-nomination-papers?

Well, now I know what being at negative support means:

My usual rule for internals in the US is to subtract 6% from whoever released them and add that much to undecided, so I note with interest that Autiello appears to "actually" be at -1%.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Nick Autiello drops out, and even more controversy about signatures for Sabina
https://www.wpri.com/target-12/thats-not-my-signature-newport-residents-dispute-signing-matos-nomination-papers?

Student Gov (alleged), self described “guncle, dog dad” twink drops out

Nothing of value was lost

[Blue3]

https://www.wpri.com/target-12/ri-election-officials-refer-all-matos-nomination-papers-to-ag-for-investigation?

Matos, who refused to speak publicly about the scandal for several days, held a news conference Friday evening, where she said she was “deeply sorry” for what has happened.

“Let’s be clear: My campaign is not under investigation,” Matos said. “A vendor hired by my campaign is under investigation.”

Matos expressed frustration with that vendor, Harmony Solutions, which she said “…betrayed the trust of [her] campaign and may have broken the law.”

“My campaign provided clear instructions to this vendor and everyone who collected signatures for us,” Matos said. “We were the victim of someone we trusted.”

“We had trust they would act with integrity,” she continued. “Anyone who has broken the law must be held accountable for their actions.”

Target 12 searched the R.I. Department of State’s online database for more information on Harmony Solutions. The search came up empty, as it doesn’t appear the vendor is registered to do business in Rhode Island.


When asked whether she planned on dropping out of the race, Matos became visibly emotional.

“I’m going to defend my name and my family’s name to the end,” Matos said. “I’m going to stay in this campaign because they need people like me to go to Washington and fight for every Rhode Islander.”

Citing the forged signatures, Matos’ political rival Donald Carlson had filed an objection to her nomination papers earlier this week. But Carlson and his campaign manager failed to appear Friday to argue in favor of the challenge, so the Board of Elections dismissed the objection.

In a statement following the decision, Carlson said his challenge was submitted in an attempt to get the board to investigate the fraud allegations, and that it was never his intention for his campaign “to assume the role of prosecutor in this matter.”

“We have full faith in Attorney General Peter Nerohna to bring this matter to a just and satisfactory conclusion just as we requested in our submission to the Board,” he said.


When asked whether his office would review Matos’ nomination papers, Neronha said it’s “very unlikely.”

“This is not a lane I should be in,” Neronha replied. “I’m not really sure why they’re asking me to do this in the first place.”


“We will do a criminal investigation and we will see where that takes us,” he added. “That’s the scope of our authority and that is the authority we are going to exercise.”

Neronha said he’s not sure whether the criminal probe will be completed before the primary.

“We’re going to do it as fast as we can,” Neronha said. “But not on a deadline imposed by a Board of Elections entity that has no authority to impose that on me.”

“This is not a problem which I believe we should fix, nor do I believe this is a problem that they can’t fix,” he continued. “I think they need to look to themselves to fix the problem that’s before us from an electoral point of view.”


In response to Matos’ remarks, congressional candidate Aaron Regunberg said that, while he respects the lieutenant governor, he was disappointed to hear her spend much of the news conference “… discussing how this fraud has impacted her reputation and political ambitions, rather than taking ownership for how it has shaken public confidence in our electoral processes at a time when faith in elections has never been more urgent.”

“Rhode Islanders deserve better,” he said.





It’s getting messy with the investigation, and in other ways.

Low blow from Regunberg, or warranted?

[MaxQue]

https://www.wpri.com/target-12/ri-election-officials-refer-all-matos-nomination-papers-to-ag-for-investigation?

Matos, who refused to speak publicly about the scandal for several days, held a news conference Friday evening, where she said she was “deeply sorry” for what has happened.

“Let’s be clear: My campaign is not under investigation,” Matos said. “A vendor hired by my campaign is under investigation.”

Matos expressed frustration with that vendor, Harmony Solutions, which she said “…betrayed the trust of [her] campaign and may have broken the law.”

“My campaign provided clear instructions to this vendor and everyone who collected signatures for us,” Matos said. “We were the victim of someone we trusted.”

“We had trust they would act with integrity,” she continued. “Anyone who has broken the law must be held accountable for their actions.”

Target 12 searched the R.I. Department of State’s online database for more information on Harmony Solutions. The search came up empty, as it doesn’t appear the vendor is registered to do business in Rhode Island.


When asked whether she planned on dropping out of the race, Matos became visibly emotional.

“I’m going to defend my name and my family’s name to the end,” Matos said. “I’m going to stay in this campaign because they need people like me to go to Washington and fight for every Rhode Islander.”

Citing the forged signatures, Matos’ political rival Donald Carlson had filed an objection to her nomination papers earlier this week. But Carlson and his campaign manager failed to appear Friday to argue in favor of the challenge, so the Board of Elections dismissed the objection.

In a statement following the decision, Carlson said his challenge was submitted in an attempt to get the board to investigate the fraud allegations, and that it was never his intention for his campaign “to assume the role of prosecutor in this matter.”

“We have full faith in Attorney General Peter Nerohna to bring this matter to a just and satisfactory conclusion just as we requested in our submission to the Board,” he said.


When asked whether his office would review Matos’ nomination papers, Neronha said it’s “very unlikely.”

“This is not a lane I should be in,” Neronha replied. “I’m not really sure why they’re asking me to do this in the first place.”


“We will do a criminal investigation and we will see where that takes us,” he added. “That’s the scope of our authority and that is the authority we are going to exercise.”

Neronha said he’s not sure whether the criminal probe will be completed before the primary.

“We’re going to do it as fast as we can,” Neronha said. “But not on a deadline imposed by a Board of Elections entity that has no authority to impose that on me.”

“This is not a problem which I believe we should fix, nor do I believe this is a problem that they can’t fix,” he continued. “I think they need to look to themselves to fix the problem that’s before us from an electoral point of view.”


In response to Matos’ remarks, congressional candidate Aaron Regunberg said that, while he respects the lieutenant governor, he was disappointed to hear her spend much of the news conference “… discussing how this fraud has impacted her reputation and political ambitions, rather than taking ownership for how it has shaken public confidence in our electoral processes at a time when faith in elections has never been more urgent.”

“Rhode Islanders deserve better,” he said.





It’s getting messy with the investigation, and in other ways.

Low blow from Regunberg, or warranted?

Warranted. Do things yourself, instead of relying on "vendors". It would actually be healthier for democracy if those were banned, actually.

[NewYorkExpress]

I would hope that criminal charges are filed against Matos here. There's no way she didn't at least know what was going on (if not actively assist in the fraud).

[Blue3]

From my Boston Globe daily email on Rhode Island news:




Leading off
Lieutenant Governor Sabina Matos, the perceived front-runner in Rhode Island's First Congressional District race, stumbled before the ballot was even finalized last week, enduring a series of escalating revelations and investigations into fraudulent nomination signatures.

So this week, as the focus shifts to candidate forums and policy distinctions, the question is: Who will benefit from Matos' terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week?

"Up until the scandal broke, it looked like she was more or less the establishment candidate – the choice of many of the most prominent politicians and unions in this state," Providence College political science Professor Adam S. Myers said. "Now that this scandal has weakened her, it opens the door for other candidates."

He said that while Matos could recover in the long-term, her miserable week could open the door in the short-term for a handful of other Democrats, including:

⚓ Gabe Amo, a former White House official who lives in Providence.

"He's not well known, but he's the kind of person the local political class could rally around," Myers said, noting that Amo has extensive D.C. connections after serving in the Obama and Biden administrations.

This morning, Amo will receive the endorsement of The Collective PAC, which has helped 425 Black candidates win election across the country.

"The Collective PAC will work hard to ensure that Gabe is successful in September and that Rhode Island sends a representative to Congress who has the experience to get things done, stand up to MAGA Republicans, and protect the rights we hold dear," said Kevin Olasanoye, a former Rhode Island Democratic Party executive director who is now national director of the Collective.

⚓ Aaron Regunberg, a former state representative from Providence.

"He definitely has the progressive lane," Myers said. "He has consistently been in second place in polls, and he clearly has the resources to see this campaign through to September."

He said other voters might now give a second look to Regunberg, who has secured endorsements from groups such as the Rhode Island Working Families Party, which provides on-the-ground electoral support, and from national progressives such as US Representative Ro Khanna, a California Democrat.

⚓ Sandra Cano, a state senator from Pawtucket.

"To the extent that there are a lot of people in the political class who want the next congressperson from Rhode Island to be a woman and a woman of color, she clearly fits the bill," Myers said. "She is obviously a person who could well benefit from this."

He noted that Cano has received the endorsement of unions such as the National Education Association Rhode Island and the United Nurses and Allied Professionals, which provide boots-on-the-ground support.

⚓ Donald Carlson, a renewable energy investor from Jamestown.

"It might open door for Carlson because he has all these resources, and he was very vocal in response to the Matos scandal," Myers said, noting Carlson had the most campaign cash on hand at the end of the second quarter -- $770,000 -- after pouring $600,000 of his own money into the race.

But Myers also said that even though the Carlson campaign filed a challenge to Matos' nomination signatures, neither Carlson nor his campaign manager attended Friday's Board of Elections hearing on the matter, and he said that made it look like a "stunt." The board dismissed Carlson's objection.
 
* * *

On Friday evening, Matos finally faced reporters to address investigations into her nomination signatures, saying that a vendor – Harmony Solutions – had "engaged in a widespread and outrageous attempt to defraud my campaign, the people of Rhode Island, and the democratic process."

Myers said, "On one hand, I feel bad for her because clearly no candidate wants something like this to happen. On the other hand, one has to ask the question: How in the world did something like this happen on the campaign's watch?"

The campaign looked "incompetent," he said, and it followed news that she was fifth in campaign cash on hand, behind Carlson, Regunberg, Amo, and Cano.

But Matos could still recover from the scandal, particularly if she performs well in debates, Myers said. "A lot depends on the behind-the-scenes conversations that Democratic power brokers are having right now about whether to support her or whether to jump ship and support somebody else," he said.

Olasanoye said, "The signature thing is meaningful, but I don't think it will be the thing Rhode Island voters will use to determine who will be the next congressperson for Rhode Island." Rather, voters will focus on the issues and try to determine "who is the right candidate that best represents what this district is about and who best mirrors what their values are," he said.

Myers said candidates have been making "symbolic campaign appeals," talking about their backgrounds and identities. But with a field of 12 Democrats and two Republicans set for the Sept. 5 primaries, attention will turn to policy differences and debate performances, he said.

That process begins tonight when the Rhode Island Democratic Women's Caucus hosts a congressional candidates forum in East Providence.

[BigZuck08]

Safe D.

[Senator Incitatus]

I would hope that criminal charges are filed against Matos here. There's no way she didn't at least know what was going on (if not actively assist in the fraud).

I think you would be surprised at how difficult this would be to prove, at the very least.

[Blue3]

Update on the Matos investigation:

https://www.wpri.com/target-12/woman-at-center-of-matos-signature-scandal-breaks-silence


The woman at the center of the Sabina Matos campaign signature scandal is breaking her silence, claiming she never forged names on nomination papers now under investigation.

Holly McClaren’s attorney, John Grasso, told Target 12 the Matos campaign reached out to McClaren to “provide an outreach team to secure nomination signatures.” As a result, Grasso said McClaren assembled a team of “four or five people,” who were sent to cities and towns in the 1st Congressional District to collect signatures for Matos’ nomination papers.

“Holly personally secured many nomination signatures herself, but she did not collect signatures in each of the cities and towns from which signatures were collected,” Grasso wrote in a statement. “Some of the team returned the nomination papers to Holly, and Holly delivered those nomination papers to the Matos Campaign.”



…



The nomination papers under scrutiny were signed by McClaren as the person who gathered the signatures, and notarized by Matos campaign spokesperson Evan England



…




The statement also took aim at the Matos campaign, arguing the lieutenant governor’s organization “did not provide Holly or team members with any training, nor did it provide any written instruction as it related to collecting signatures.”

Brexton Isaacs, the campaign manager for Matos, had previously said they gave written instructions to each person gathering signatures for the candidate. Matos is one of 12 Democrats seeking to replace former Congressman David Cicilline.




…





While McClaren is at the center of the controversy, she’s not the only one who submitted papers currently under scrutiny.

Another person working for the campaign, named Shanna Gallagher, submitted nomination papers in East Providence. The paperwork contained the names and signatures of all five East Providence City Council members, who each told Target 12 they never signed the paperwork.

[NewYorkExpress]

Still think a Matos indictment is very possible here (or at least a deal where Matos avoids an indictment (and the investigation ends), in exchange for her dropping out of the race and resigning as Lieutenant Governor.).

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1684546381623570435?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4t...

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1684546381623570435?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4t...

Congratulations to Regunberg on winning the primary.

In all seriousness, this is the kind of race where a Sanders endorsement may be decisive. Closely divided field, weak frontrunner with clear ethical problems, a state (and I'm pretty sure a district) where Sanders won in both 2016 and 2020, and a race where Regunberg is the lone prominent progressive, against a field of moderates and conservatives.

A good move by Sanders, and this is very good news for Regunberg.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1684546381623570435?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tbLknaywwB6Q

Congratulations to Regunberg on winning the primary.

In all seriousness, this is the kind of race where a Sanders endorsement may be decisive. Closely divided field, weak frontrunner with clear ethical problems, a state (and I'm pretty sure a district) where Sanders won in both 2016 and 2020, and a race where Regunberg is the lone prominent progressive, against a field of moderates and conservatives.

A good move by Sanders, and this is very good news for Regunberg.

Well, Sanders didn't win RI in 2020 (he had withdrawn), but he did get 15% of the vote even having withdrawn which isn't too bad. New England broadly is not exactly hostile to the Sanders wing. I think this could be a good boost for Regunberg.

[Vosem]

Yeah, I think Regunberg may even have won regardless -- he had, per polling, already emerged as the clear alternative to a very flawed frontrunner -- but this should give his campaign a massive boost and cement him as the clear man to beat.

[Blue3]

I wouldn't call the all the others moderates and conservatives, just more local based than national-level already (with the exception of Gabe Amo).

I'd be fine with Regunberg... but honestly I'd rather have him as Governor than Congressman, where he'd be able to make more of a difference.

[Not Me, Us]

I wouldn't call the all the others moderates and conservatives, just more local based than national-level already (with the exception of Gabe Amo).

I'd be fine with Regunberg... but honestly I'd rather have him as Governor than Congressman, where he'd be able to make more of a difference.

He's only 33, he has plenty of time to run for governor at some point if he wants to.

Hopefully the Sanders endorsement and Matos' current issues seals the deal for Regunberg, I like hime a lot and I think he could have a pretty bright future.

[Mr. Matt]

I wouldn't call the all the others moderates and conservatives, just more local based than national-level already (with the exception of Gabe Amo).

I'd be fine with Regunberg... but honestly I'd rather have him as Governor than Congressman, where he'd be able to make more of a difference.

He's only 33, he has plenty of time to run for governor at some point if he wants to.

Isn't the RI governor's power so weak, that if one was interested in getting something done, they'd be better off being one of the 435 in the House versus RI governor?

[Blue3]

I wouldn't call the all the others moderates and conservatives, just more local based than national-level already (with the exception of Gabe Amo).

I'd be fine with Regunberg... but honestly I'd rather have him as Governor than Congressman, where he'd be able to make more of a difference.

He's only 33, he has plenty of time to run for governor at some point if he wants to.

Isn't the RI governor's power so weak, that if one was interested in getting something done, they'd be better off being one of the 435 in the House versus RI governor?

RI Governor has gotten stronger since Raimondo.

Congress isn't in position to get anything done for a while. I'd rather have a progressive Governor able to finally made some big changes.

Usually, when someone gets to Congress, they stay in Congress. I'd rather Regunberg do Governor first, then he can get into the House or Senate.

We were so close too... he nearly beat McKee for Lt. Governor, and if he did he'd have become Governor when Raimondo joined the Biden admin.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/TedNesi/status/1686762920099627008?t=JSNSkm4oOS5jcyJQVRqTaQ&...

[Blue3]

I’ve been saying since Day 1 that Sandra Cano shouldn’t be underestimated. There’s a reason that she’s getting the endorsements of basically everyone outside of the 2 with outside support (Amo from the White House and Regunberg from Sanders)  and the 1 statewide elected officer (Sabina Matos). A progressive leader actually from district 1, who’s been working hard will climbing the ranks from School Board to City Council to State Senate, and represents our new demographics and has a compelling life story (moving her with her parents from Colombia when she was about 18). On a personal note, when she first ran for state senate, and I was getting flyers from her and other candidates, I reached out to all of them with my own questions (to the emails they provided). She was the only one who responded. If she doesn’t win this one, I think this has helped build her name recognition for running for something else.




Progressive attack on Regunberg:
https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/2023/08/03/congressional-rivals-pounce-on-regunbergs-well-funded-family-super-pac/70521950007/

 Rhode Island congressional candidates, even those getting significant help of their own from outside groups, attacked Democratic primary rival Aaron Regunberg on Thursday for receiving support from a super PAC funded by his family.

The sharpest attack came from the left, where a segment of progressives has argued all year that Regunberg, the leading progressive candidate, isn't really one of them.

"He's stacked up endorsements from D.C. bigwigs. He's held high-priced fundraisers in Newport mansions. And now he's had his wealthy father-in-law throw more money at a single piece of mail than most Rhode Island families make in a year," state Sen. Ana Quezada said in a blistering attack on Regunberg. "Don't play cute with us, Aaron. We see you for who you are: a privileged rich kid with no real job experience who's cosplaying 'man of the people.'"

At the center of the dispute is a pro-Regunberg mailer distributed to voters this week, paid for by Progress Rhode Island, featuring comic book-style graphics describing the former Providence state representative as "Rhode Island's Proven Progressive Champion."

[NerdyBohemian]

Leaning Cano for my vote personally.

[Pollster]

Current chatter among those who have seen recent (post-scandal) polling is that Matos has collapsed and Regunberg is comfortably but not prohibitively ahead, with Amo quickly picking up most of Matos' support. If that dynamic continues, could be a close finish between the two.