Will Texas swing to the right (Trump vs Biden)?

[Bea O'Problem]

No.

[Tekken_Guy]

Has there been a single head to head poll in the past year that has shown Biden doing as well as he did in 2020? He's pretty clearly the underdog against Trump or DeSantis unless his approval rating improves substantially.

There have been plenty of polls showing Biden winning by his 2020 margin against Trump.

When was the last one?

YouGov has him up by 6. Echelon by 3. Morning Consult by 2. He's up 4 in PPP. 2 in Rasmussen. 8 in Suffolk. 10 in Marquette.

Yeah there are several polls with Biden up.

[Death of a Salesman]

Has there been a single head to head poll in the past year that has shown Biden doing as well as he did in 2020? He's pretty clearly the underdog against Trump or DeSantis unless his approval rating improves substantially.

There have been plenty of polls showing Biden winning by his 2020 margin against Trump.

When was the last one?

YouGov has him up by 6. Echelon by 3. Morning Consult by 2. He's up 4 in PPP. 2 in Rasmussen. 8 in Suffolk. 10 in Marquette.

Yeah there are several polls with Biden up.

Marquette's latest poll has him tied,
Nevermind, you're right. Biden is averaging +3.5 against Trump, which implies a close electoral college.

and against DeSantis, he's trailing by 3, which implies a borderline blowout in the Electoral College.
YouGov has him down by 1. Echelon by 3. Morning Consult up by 1. Down by 4 in Suffolk. 7 in Marquette.

[Red Willow]

Slightly left. I would expect a 51-47 result or so.

[Joe Biden 2028]

My gut says it moves right, despite demographics suggesting it move left

I dont think we'll have as high turnout as 2020

[Woody]

After recent events, is it more likely now?

[Progressive Pessimist]

No. The swing won't be big, but it will be to the left.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It will swing Left than FL because ALLRED is down 2 I had TX safe R and then changed it back, the reason why Rs are having problems in MO, TX, MT and OH is because Abbott and DeWine aren't on the ballot

Trump is gonna underperform in all of those states except MT but Tester is up by 3 in Emerson , and he isn't winning MO by 20 more like 5

Blue waves happen at the end of Eday cycle I believe in Rassy he is gonna be at 50 by Eday he is at 46 now

Rs don't have the S the only state they have in ratings Cook and Sabato is WV they don't have OH and MT

[ProgressiveModerate]

My gut says it moves right, despite demographics suggesting it move left

I dont think we'll have as high turnout as 2020

This is basically what happened in 2022; statewide Dems like Beto and Collier did fine on persuasion largely matching Biden, but turnout dynamics heavily favored Rs. The biggest swings right were in rural counties where Dem votes almost exclusively come from non-white voters.

I think it's unlikely turnout dynamics are as lopsided as 2022, but I could see it being close in a worst case scenario. I'd say Trump + 9 is the best case for Trump.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the fundamental problem for TX Rs which makes me think it's unlikely the state swings right. I would be very surprised if Biden didn't gain in the state's 4 main metros, especially Dallas and Austin. And Texas is a far more urban/suburban state than people give it credit for; in 2020 Pres Trump got solid swings out of most of rural TX, most notable South Texas, yet the state still swung and trended left.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The problem with Atlas users they don't think outside the box they think it's gonna be the same map as in 20 and we are gonna lose the S after polls show that OH, MT, TX and NEB and MO where all are MOE not Lean R. They think the S is gone for Ds

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think Texas swings left, but by a couple percentage points so Trump wins it by like 3.
It could be the tipping point state in 2028 however. Suburban trends are bad.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I am beginning to get optimistic Biden @46)53 Approvals his 33 Approvals were lows but he is starting to get back going again that's why Trump leads beginning to shrink agai

[The Mamdani Virus]

I guess it’s plausible now, but in any case I still expect Republicans to do worse than 2016 in Texas even with the current polling numbers. I would still lean towards no, but ask me again in September or October.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think Texas swinging right or left will be a good bellwether for who will win nationwide . If Texas swings right then I think that Trump will be re-elected while if Texas swings left than I think Biden gets reelected

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Texas swinging right or left will be a good bellwether for who will win nationwide . If Texas swings right then I think that Trump will be re-elected while if Texas swings left than I think Biden gets reelected

States aren't completely correlated, but if Biden is losing ground in Texas, it'd likely indicate problems in states like AZ and GA which have some similar demographics that have been powering their leftwards shifts. In Biden gains in Texas, it'll almost certainly be because of the big metros and probably indicates he's doing well enough in cities like Pheonix and Atlanta to carry those states.

[2016]

I think Texas swinging right or left will be a good bellwether for who will win nationwide . If Texas swings right then I think that Trump will be re-elected while if Texas swings left than I think Biden gets reelected

Trump has a 9-Point lead over Biden in TX according to the latest Polls. Biden would need a JA of over 50 % to pull off a Statewide Win there and there is no evidence he will have that.

I think the Election once again comes down to WI, MI, PA. Trump might take AZ and GA back.

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

I think Texas making a sharp swing in any direction might depend on the current border situation and whether things get particularly wild at the border.

Leaning toward no as far as any real swing.

[mileslunn]

Margin may widen but compared to national trend, no I think it trends Democrat so even if swings GOP, will be less than country as whole.  Fastest growing part of state are the big four metro areas (Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio) and much like Atlanta metro area, those are zooming fast to left as most moving there whether from abroad or elsewhere in US more likely to vote Democrat than Texas as a whole.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Man ya'll are so thirsty for Blue Texas it's hilarious
Yes it will swing and trend right as well. Trump's literally making massive gains with minorities from the polling we're seeing

[ProgressiveModerate]

Man ya'll are so thirsty for Blue Texas it's hilarious
Yes it will swing and trend right as well. Trump's literally making massive gains with minorities from the polling we're seeing

Trump made massive gains with Hispanics, in 2020, yet Texas still swung and trended left. Some of those swings we saw are unlikely to repeat in magnitude (in a few cases it's mathematically impossible).

Other factors like growth, Dem gains with college educated voters, and more favorable turnout dyanmics can cancel out any D slippage of non-whites.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't gonna do worse than 20 that's why users making R nut maps doesn't make sense like Laki AZ and NV are D states go to Co, NV, aZ and NM they are like IL, MI, PA be ause of tax increases but go to states like TX and especially FL they cut sales taxes and rely heavily on Lottery sales tickets

We can get split voting a 304 map Stein winning G and ALLRED, Brown and Tester winning , NC split it's vote for G and Prez in 2020 Robinson like Cruz are trainwrecks. But, Trump can do very well I'm NC in 24

[DavidB.]

Compared to 2020 yes, compared to the country as a whole no.