Will Texas swing to the right (Trump vs Biden)?
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  Will Texas swing to the right (Trump vs Biden)?		 « previous next »
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Question: Yes or no?
#1
Yes		  
#2
No		  
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Total Voters: 79

Author Topic: Will Texas swing to the right (Trump vs Biden)?  (Read 2889 times)
Woody
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« on: February 17, 2023, 05:37:54 PM »
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2023, 07:13:20 PM »
No, but it'll probably trend right.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2023, 11:58:41 AM »
I don't think so. Against DeSantis? Most likely, but not by that much.
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The Mamdani Virus
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2023, 10:56:19 PM »
People do realize Dems only did as badly as they did in TX in 2022 because of poor D turnout, right? That won't be an issue in 2024. Anyways no, and it won't swing right with DeSantis either.
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2023, 11:03:46 PM »
I don't know if Biden can win Texas but doubt he loses it by more than a couple points to Trump. Collin county likely flips and Denton is very close.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2023, 01:05:16 AM »
Yes it went 11 pts R in 22
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Francisco
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2023, 03:15:23 AM »
In a Trump - Biden rematch? I don't think so, I think it would be mostly the same result or Trump by 4.

I can see DeSantis winning Texas in high single digits, but those days of Texas being a safe red state are over.
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Spectator
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2023, 09:46:03 AM »
Almost definitely not. The trends in the growing parts of the state are going the wrong way. I think at worst, Biden would only lose to Trump by 4 or 5.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2023, 01:55:34 PM »
For Trump, probably not.  For just about anyone else (as long as they aren't like Cruz or Trump Jr), almost certainly yes.  It's glaringly obvious at this point that 5-10% of the Texas electorate that specifically doesn't like Trump but is still down-the-line Republican on policy.  There's an actual NeverTrump constituency in Texas. 
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Wrong about 2024 Ghost
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« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2023, 10:51:37 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on February 19, 2023, 01:55:34 PM
For Trump, probably not.  For just about anyone else (as long as they aren't like Cruz or Trump Jr), almost certainly yes.  It's glaringly obvious at this point that 5-10% of the Texas electorate that specifically doesn't like Trump but is still down-the-line Republican on policy.  There's an actual NeverTrump constituency in Texas. 

Ideally, Abbot will do or say something that triggers Donald and he'll spend the election intermittently insulting the whole state as payback.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2023, 04:05:03 AM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on February 19, 2023, 01:55:34 PM
For Trump, probably not.  For just about anyone else (as long as they aren't like Cruz or Trump Jr), almost certainly yes.  It's glaringly obvious at this point that 5-10% of the Texas electorate that specifically doesn't like Trump but is still down-the-line Republican on policy.  There's an actual NeverTrump constituency in Texas. 
Beto 2022, kept most of Biden's gains in the suburb and in fact even swung Travis a bit to the left. It was poor urban turnout that hurt him the most.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2023, 03:48:15 PM »
No. The gop barely wins it by 2. It’ll look more like 2018.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2023, 10:16:05 PM »
Probably not.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2023, 09:11:54 AM »
Quote from: TodayJunior on February 20, 2023, 03:48:15 PM
No. The gop barely wins it by 2. It’ll look more like 2018.

LoL it went 11 pts R
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2023, 03:15:00 PM »
Quote from: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on February 20, 2023, 04:05:03 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on February 19, 2023, 01:55:34 PM
For Trump, probably not.  For just about anyone else (as long as they aren't like Cruz or Trump Jr), almost certainly yes.  It's glaringly obvious at this point that 5-10% of the Texas electorate that specifically doesn't like Trump but is still down-the-line Republican on policy.  There's an actual NeverTrump constituency in Texas. 
Beto 2022, kept most of Biden's gains in the suburb and in fact even swung Travis a bit to the left. It was poor urban turnout that hurt him the most.

I think the best way of reading 2018 was that swing voters decided Cruz = Trump for all practical purposes.  Every other Republican running that year did considerably better.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2023, 03:34:42 PM »
Nevermind what I said earlier depending on Colin ALRED
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2023, 05:30:31 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Barkari Sellers on February 21, 2023, 09:11:54 AM
Quote from: TodayJunior on February 20, 2023, 03:48:15 PM
No. The gop barely wins it by 2. It’ll look more like 2018.

LoL it went 11 pts R

The ever decreasing redness of Texas on the presidential level clearly points to a very close race especially if it’s trump. Trump still wins it but he’ll have to really fight for it causing him to be unable to go offense in other places like PA/MI
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2023, 05:38:04 PM »
I don't think so. Though I think its swing left will be fairly minimal, not more than two points or so.
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #18 on: February 25, 2023, 07:16:25 AM »
Quote from: Ron DeSantis enthusiast on February 19, 2023, 03:15:23 AM
In a Trump - Biden rematch? I don't think so, I think it would be mostly the same result or Trump by 4.

I can see DeSantis winning Texas in high single digits, but those days of Texas being a safe red state are over.

I don't see DeSantis doing any better than +7, and that's in the event of a good environment for us.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2023, 08:43:28 AM »
We don't know it's wave insurance it's 2 yrs from now, it's not now
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Death of a Salesman
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« Reply #20 on: February 25, 2023, 01:31:57 PM »
Has there been a single head to head poll in the past year that has shown Biden doing as well as he did in 2020? He's pretty clearly the underdog against Trump or DeSantis unless his approval rating improves substantially.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: February 25, 2023, 01:36:08 PM »
Quote from: Death of a Salesman on February 25, 2023, 01:31:57 PM
Has there been a single head to head poll in the past year that has shown Biden doing as well as he did in 2020? He's pretty clearly the underdog against Trump or DeSantis unless his approval rating improves substantially.



Biden or Trump Approvals are where they are due to COVID no Prez is gonna have stellar Approvals in this Environment
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #22 on: February 25, 2023, 01:45:07 PM »
Quote from: Death of a Salesman on February 25, 2023, 01:31:57 PM
Has there been a single head to head poll in the past year that has shown Biden doing as well as he did in 2020? He's pretty clearly the underdog against Trump or DeSantis unless his approval rating improves substantially.


There have been plenty of polls showing Biden winning by his 2020 margin against Trump.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: February 25, 2023, 02:01:20 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2023, 02:08:29 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 25, 2023, 01:45:07 PM
Quote from: Death of a Salesman on February 25, 2023, 01:31:57 PM
Has there been a single head to head poll in the past year that has shown Biden doing as well as he did in 2020? He's pretty clearly the underdog against Trump or DeSantis unless his approval rating improves substantially.


There have been plenty of polls showing Biden winning by his 2020 margin against Trump.

There are gonna be upsets especially with WC Manchin, Tester, Brown, Stein, Kelly, Beshear and Kunce stand a chance, we have no chance in LA, TX and FL due to fact there are blk candidates running

We can gain a seat in the US Senate MO Kunce and gain 5 in the H and Ruben Gallego replaces Sinema, anyone thinks its gonna duplicate a 303 map and Presley and Beshear are winning are wrong

There are no polls but every Eday is different

The problem with TX and FL is the Ds are divided on whom to support Boswell or Joseph or Manning or Love but Biden isn't even campaigning in those states but Brown and Kunce can surely win if Presley and Beshear are winning


TX swings 6 pts to right but we don't need it anyways
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Death of a Salesman
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« Reply #24 on: February 28, 2023, 02:07:36 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 25, 2023, 01:45:07 PM
Quote from: Death of a Salesman on February 25, 2023, 01:31:57 PM
Has there been a single head to head poll in the past year that has shown Biden doing as well as he did in 2020? He's pretty clearly the underdog against Trump or DeSantis unless his approval rating improves substantially.


There have been plenty of polls showing Biden winning by his 2020 margin against Trump.
When was the last one?
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