2023 Scottish National Party leadership election

[DL]

I'm surprised that about 30% of SNP voters disapprove of each of the leadership contenders. Usually the vast majority party's own voters tend to like all their own party's major figures.

[Coldstream]

I'm surprised that about 30% of SNP voters disapprove of each of the leadership contenders. Usually the vast majority party's own voters tend to like all their own party's major figures.

Perhaps this was true historically, but I think if you look at recent Labour & Tory leadership elections this isn’t particularly different.

[afleitch]

Finally. Some useful polling.

https://www.focaldata.com/blog/can-yousaf-or-forbes-save-the-snp

https://mobile.twitter.com/markmcgeoghegan/status/1639252045369683971

[Хahar 🤔]

Is there any realistic possibility of either the SNP or the SGP forming government with any other party (Alba doesn't count), or is Scotland now effectively like Denmark where voting for any party in the same bloc should get you the same result?

[JimJamUK]

Is there any realistic possibility of either the SNP or the SGP forming government with any other party (Alba doesn't count), or is Scotland now effectively like Denmark where voting for any party in the same bloc should get you the same result?

Well, it didn’t at the last election! (there’s a ‘centrist’ government despite a ‘red bloc’ majority). But to answer your question, the answer is probably no. The Greens are in theory an environmentalist party, but have also become pretty hardline nationalists these days and a non-SNP government would have little to offer them (both because it would likely also be reliant on the Tories, and because they are viewed as sub-calibre by the unionists parties). The description of them as the environmentalist wing of the SNP is not too far from the truth. The SNP won’t, because to be in government they need to lead it (it would be humiliating to transition into the junior party when they’re probably still the largest party) and no unionist party would back an SNP led government these days (partly on independence grounds, but also because they’ve spent over a decade slagging the SNP off so cannot turn around and keep them in power).

[oldtimer]

Finally. Some useful polling.

https://www.focaldata.com/blog/can-yousaf-or-forbes-save-the-snp

https://mobile.twitter.com/markmcgeoghegan/status/1639252045369683971

Very informative that there seems to be little difference between the 2, however the SNP in the mid 30's after excluding D/K, is surprisingly low for both of them.

Something might have already broke inside the SNP for now at least.

[Torrain]

So, we’re in the last 24 hours of the contest. Here’s how the coming week is scheduled to unfold, after voting closes at midday on Monday:

• Monday: The new SNP leader is announced, Sturgeon resigns.
• Tuesday: The full Scottish Parliament votes to elect a new First Minister.
• Wednesday: The new FM sworn in at the Court of Session in Edinburgh.
• Thursday: FM appoints a cabinet, and attends their first session of First Minister’s Questions.

[CumbrianLefty]

Could be a fun week alright.

[MABA 2020]

So, we’re in the last 24 hours of the contest. Here’s how the coming week is scheduled to unfold, after voting closes at midday on Monday:

• Monday: The new SNP leader is announced, Sturgeon resigns.
• Tuesday: The full Scottish Parliament votes to elect a new First Minister.
• Wednesday: The new FM sworn in at the Court of Session in Edinburgh.
• Thursday: FM appoints a cabinet, and attends their first session of First Minister’s Questions.

Oh exciting!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, we’re in the last 24 hours of the contest. Here’s how the coming week is scheduled to unfold, after voting closes at midday on Monday:

• Monday: The new SNP leader is announced, Sturgeon resigns.
• Tuesday: The full Scottish Parliament votes to elect a new First Minister.
• Wednesday: The new FM sworn in at the Court of Session in Edinburgh.
• Thursday: FM appoints a cabinet, and attends their first session of First Minister’s Questions.

Oh exciting!

It will be exciting times indeed.

[Torrain]

One last bit of housekeeping - for anyone wanting to watch proceedings, from either last or next week - Scottish Parliament TV is the official government site which livestreams and archives all sessions.

Parliament also has a Youtube channel (link here), with major events archived. Sturgeon's last FMQs can be found here, and her farewell speech (along with tributes/rebuttals from other parties) can be found here.

Not entirely sure which platforms will carry the announcement tomorrow (scheduled for 2pm), but I'd bet on livestreams on the Youtube channels for the SNP and Sky News.

I can't speak as to which of these resources are available outside the UK. But I guess anyone who's that curious probably already has a VPN?

[Oryxslayer]

So, we’re in the last 24 hours of the contest. Here’s how the coming week is scheduled to unfold, after voting closes at midday on Monday:

• Monday: The new SNP leader is announced, Sturgeon resigns.
• Tuesday: The full Scottish Parliament votes to elect a new First Minister.
• Wednesday: The new FM sworn in at the Court of Session in Edinburgh.
• Thursday: FM appoints a cabinet, and attends their first session of First Minister’s Questions.

Oh exciting!

I mean this should all be perfunctory right? Would the Greens really vote down any of the options? Are they even capable of considering the pseudo-Accelerationism necessary to 'punish' the SNP for theoretically choosing the wrong candidate?

I guess what I am getting at is that Labour should come to power nationally in a little over a year, whereas Scotland's has theoretically three more years till the next Holyrood election. That's plenty of time for the SNP to reorient for a new environment and recover to potentially take advantage of a Labour 'midterm.'

[Blair]

I didn’t realise it was happening this soon- seems to be some jitters Forbes might win, but I’d still expect Hamza to win just as the vanilla option.

[Torrain]

Ballot closed. Catch you at 14.00 for results…

[TheTide]

Forbes smiling and "feeling good" it seems.

Might not mean much given that David Miliband was smiling like a Cheshire cat when the Labour leadership election results were about to be announced in 2010.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1640340479756709891

[Logical]

52-48 CURSED RATIO STRIKES AGAIN

[TheTide]

A resounding mandate.

[afleitch]

Nice.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Nice.

How are you feeling about the closeness of the results? It seemed like you were expecting a rather stronger margin for Yousaf.

[Torrain]

First Preferences:

• Humza Yousaf: 48.2%
• Kate Forbes: 40.7%
• Ash Regan: 11.1%

2nd Round:

• Humza Yousaf: 52.1%
• Kate Forbes: 47.9%

Turnout is roughly 50,000/72,000

[MacShimidh]

With the result announced, I’ve come round to the idea that Forbes’s religion didn’t hurt her as much as the conventional wisdom (and even my own) might have thought when the contest was announced. Getting all the controversial stuff out in the open early on was probably a rather deft move on her part, and it seemed a lot of SNP members were keeping their powder dry and giving her a serious look up until the first televised debate. Rather, I suspect her big mistake was in completely trashing her own government’s record in that debate. Sunak and Truss received some similar blowback after their first debate last year, but Forbes’s attack on Yousaf was just blistering and on a whole other level.

Add in some rather odd stylistic choices (eg, not attending Sturgeon’s last FMQs) and she had the appearance of someone who was trying to appear as an iconoclast despite having been happy to be front and centre in the cabinet for the last three years - there are surely better ways of painting yourself as the “change” candidate. Giving yourself the appearance of being a team player (or at the very least, somebody who isn’t going to throw colleagues under the bus) is important in all parties but especially one as insular as the SNP.

On the subject of First Minister Yousaf, I have a feeling that his first week in power will be a high point the likes of which he will never see again. In the short term he is going to have a hell of a job in repairing Nat unity, and in the medium term you get the sense that he’s not going to be given such an easy ride on government policy as Sturgeon (usually) was. But this leadership contest has been such a stramash that I strongly doubt the SNP will be in any hurry to have another one any time soon, even if he turns out to be their Truss.

[afleitch]

The Alba-adjacent wing inadvertently ran Regan as a spoiler. But not they way they had planned...

[afleitch]

Worth noting that in the only membership poll conducted, excluding don't knows, Regan got 11%.

Humza was ahead of Forbes by 5. Ended up ahead by 7 in first preferences or 4 by STV.

Maybe they could have polled more? Just saying...

[afleitch]

Savanta 23/02-01/03

Poll/Result (First Round)

Regan 17/11
Yousaf 46/48
Forbes 37/41

Not bad.