McConnell aligned poll - Manchin leads Mooney and Morrisey, down double digits to Justice.

[Alben Barkley]

I said this was not Safe R, I still don't think it is and this is actual evidence of it. Likely R with Justice, Lean R at best with the others.

[Alben Barkley]

The assumption that Manchin is DOA seems to rest on the assumption that West Virginia has somehow lurched rightward since 2018. There is literally no evidence of this; the state trended left in 2020. It seems quite clear the GOP has hit its ceiling there and the state is no more Republican today than it was when Manchin won re-election in 2018. Yes, you could argue that because 2024 will be a presidential year and possibly or probably a less Democratic year than 2018, that puts Manchin at a disadvantage. But it doesn't mean he's gonna get Blanched. I wouldn't be shocked at all by a close race, including a narrow Manchin win, and think Monongalia County will be the first in WV to vote D in a presidential race since 2008 in any case.

The expert raters so far all have this race as tossup or Lean R for a reason.