Will Biden do better or worse in WI than Tony Evers?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Biden do better or worse than Tony Evers did in Wisconsin in 2022?

[SnowLabrador]

Worse. Evers' 2022 performance is pretty much the Democratic ceiling in Wisconsin now.

[Earthling]

It depends who the Republican candidate is.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It depends who the Republican candidate is.

Tbh yeah. In the unlikely scenario Nikki Haley or Mike Pence wins the nomination I could easily see Biden winning WI by over 5%.

[Spectator]

Worse. Evers' 2022 performance is pretty much the Democratic ceiling in Wisconsin now.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Better Baldwin is gonna cruise to reelection

[Devils30]

Worse but Biden still wins it by around 2.5%

[The Mamdani Virus]

Worse. Evers' 2022 performance is pretty much the Democratic ceiling in Wisconsin now.

Caveat, that this applies to neutral presidential years, but agreed otherwise.

[Vosem]

Evers' performance is probably not the ceiling; among other things as I tire of mentioning 2022 was an R+3 year, and in a Democratic year Democrats probably could do better.

But on the other hand, it was significantly stronger than a normal Democratic performance in the state is these days, so I guess I'll go worse.

It depends who the Republican candidate is.

Tbh yeah. In the unlikely scenario Nikki Haley or Mike Pence wins the nomination I could easily see Biden winning WI by over 5%.

Pence, sure, but in the scenario where Haley is strong enough to win the Republican nomination, why would you expect her to do poorly in WI in particular? She seems like she belongs to a version of the party (Tea-Party-revolt era) which resonated particularly strongly in Wisconsin.

[Fancyarcher]

Worse, Evers performance was the result of midterm dynamics. That same doesn't necessarily apply to presidental elections with higher turnout.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Evers' performance is probably not the ceiling; among other things as I tire of mentioning 2022 was an R+3 year, and in a Democratic year Democrats probably could do better.

But on the other hand, it was significantly stronger than a normal Democratic performance in the state is these days, so I guess I'll go worse.

It depends who the Republican candidate is.

Tbh yeah. In the unlikely scenario Nikki Haley or Mike Pence wins the nomination I could easily see Biden winning WI by over 5%.

Pence, sure, but in the scenario where Haley is strong enough to win the Republican nomination, why would you expect her to do poorly in WI in particular? She seems like she belongs to a version of the party (Tea-Party-revolt era) which resonated particularly strongly in Wisconsin.

While nationwide 2022 was an R+3 year, in rust belt states turnout massively benefited democrats. For example, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan had an electorate that voted for Biden by significantly more than in 2020.

So although 2022 was an R+3 year, it's a bit disingenuous to use that as an argument about Wisconsin in specific.

[President Johnson]

Depends on the Republican nominee, but worse is much more likely. I expect the state to be decided by not more than two points either way.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Depends on the Republican nominee, but worse is much more likely. I expect the state to be decided by not more than two points either way.

Lol we are gonna gained seats on WI SCOTUS and WI, MI and PA state legislature and Baldwin doesn't have an opponent

The MAGA wants you to believe

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Worse. Evers' 2022 performance is pretty much the Democratic ceiling in Wisconsin now.

Caveat, that this applies to neutral presidential years, but agreed otherwise.

.Caveat your R nut map with Oz winning was wrong, caveat you have Cameron winning and Beshear is leading by 9 pts


At least Progressive Moderate shows optimism you should try it sometime

[dw93]

Worse, but at this time I still think he overperforms 2020.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Worse, but at this time I still think he overperforms 2020.

LoL Baldwin is on the Ballot and will outperform Barnes

[Radicalneo]

Definitely worse

[DaleCooper]

Probably worse, but it should be noted that pretty much all of the ancestral Dem counties trended against Evers in 2022. He improved so much because he gained in all those urban and suburban areas, so a Biden win in 2024 will probably look pretty similar to Evers' reelection map.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Probably worse, but it should be noted that pretty much all of the ancestral Dem counties trended against Evers in 2022. He improved so much because he gained in all those urban and suburban areas, so a Biden win in 2024 will probably look pretty similar to Evers' reelection map.

Lol MQK poll has Biden up 10

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Evers' performance is probably not the ceiling; among other things as I tire of mentioning 2022 was an R+3 year, and in a Democratic year Democrats probably could do better.

But on the other hand, it was significantly stronger than a normal Democratic performance in the state is these days, so I guess I'll go worse.

It depends who the Republican candidate is.

Tbh yeah. In the unlikely scenario Nikki Haley or Mike Pence wins the nomination I could easily see Biden winning WI by over 5%.

Pence, sure, but in the scenario where Haley is strong enough to win the Republican nomination, why would you expect her to do poorly in WI in particular? She seems like she belongs to a version of the party (Tea-Party-revolt era) which resonated particularly strongly in Wisconsin.

I have a theory that Evers' performance in both his elections had almost nothing to do with him and everything to do with his opponents. Evers is almost a complete nonentity, he's about as close to Generic D as they come and is also a rather boring old white guy on top of that, so 2018 was just a referendum on the rather controversial Scott Walker, and 2022 ended up being as such on the also controversial (in a worse way) Michels and general "Trumpiness"

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

WI isn't a Lean R state

[Burke Bro]

I have a theory that Evers' performance in both his elections had almost nothing to do with him and everything to do with his opponents. Evers is almost a complete nonentity, he's about as close to Generic D as they come and is also a rather boring old white guy on top of that, so 2018 was just a referendum on the rather controversial Scott Walker, and 2022 ended up being as such on the also controversial (in a worse way) Michels and general "Trumpiness"

Evers won re-election because Wisconsin voters (rightfully) understood him to be an essential check on the Republican supermajorities in the legislature which had overreached during the Scott Walker years.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Worse than him in 2022, but possibly close to his 2018 margin.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm still not completely sold that Biden wins the state at all, so worse.

[Joe Biden 2028]

A few months ago, a Democrat was elected to the WI supreme court by 11 points.