How can Republicans get Allen margins in Nova/Richmond Suburbs?
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  How can Republicans get Allen margins in Nova/Richmond Suburbs?
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Author Topic: How can Republicans get Allen margins in Nova/Richmond Suburbs?  (Read 695 times)
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« on: February 14, 2023, 12:53:20 AM »

In 2006 George Allen only lost Loudoun by 1.4, Prince William by 2.4, Fairfax by 18.9. He won Chesterfield by 18.1 and Henrico (!) by 0.6. This is despite all his controversies and the fact that he faced an opponent who served in the Reagan administration.

Now, it seems like even a Republican like Youngkin, who has none of the controversies Allen had and who had a much weaker opponent, does at least 10 points worse in these suburbs.
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progressive85
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« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2023, 02:03:53 AM »

I'm not really that familiar with Virginia politics, but I think the population has really increased in these regions, bringing new people from different areas, not only from the United States but from other parts of the world.  I remember one incident from 2006 was known as the "Macaca incident", and then you had in 2008 the "real Virginia" thing.  So Virginia's increasing diversity has moved it away from the state it was in the 80s and 90s.

It also appears that the state is becoming more like the Northeast over time rather than the Southern states underneath it and to the west of it.  

I think in general suburban voters are not as Republican as they once were (whereas rural voters are not as Democratic as they were once were), so there's the realignment going on.

and also, especially in elections where philosophy over the role of the federal government is important there's a lot of federal workers whose salaries and wealth are tied to Washington, D.C.  So when the Republicans propose to make large cuts to Washington's bureaucracy, that could mean job losses to those voters, which makes them more favorable to the Democrats' views on public sector jobs.
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Snow Belt Republican
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2023, 04:33:47 AM »

Virginia is a landslide only state at this point unless you somehow revert the suburban leftward swing...
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2023, 09:30:57 AM »

Buy a time machine and set it for 2000.
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Snow Belt Republican
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« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2023, 09:48:50 AM »

Buy a time machine and set it for 2000.


Oh how things used to be...
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2023, 11:26:28 AM »

Give us this day our daily Virginia thread.

Though I must say I am looking forward to Nov 2025 when a Democrat probably picks up VA Gov and does far better in Richmond/Hampton Roads compared to 2021 while doing only a bit better in Nova compared to 2021.
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« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2023, 12:48:32 PM »

NoVA is a very different place today than it was in 2006 so no republicans will not perform that well again .

Like I’m pretty sure if only the people who were eligible in 2006 could have voted in 2021 VA , Youngkin wins Loudon and Prince William but those counties are fundamentally different today so no republicans won’t do that that well again.
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2023, 02:36:40 PM »

Nominate a Rockefeller Republican
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2023, 03:22:44 PM »

Virginia is a landslide only state at this point unless you somehow revert the suburban leftward swing...

I don't expect it to reverse, but I think it's unlikely the state moves much further left anytime soon.  VA is overindexed in religious city people, but it's also overindexed in establishment suburbs. 
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