47% is what Hood got in 2019. Not a bad sign for the Dems if they can maintain that number when a Democrat is in the White House, which probably also bodes well for Beshear.
Now I can see Dobbs having a marginal effect in Kentucky, but Mississippi is one of the last places I'd expect.
I mean Kentucky voters pretty explicitly rejected Dobbs last November, and Beshear is very popular and crushing it in the polls right now. I can see the effect as a little more than marginal.
As for Mississippi, true that the New York Times did calculate based on the Kansas results that it would be one of the few states to vote to reject abortion rights (and they got Kentucky's vote pretty spot-on). So you might have a point there. But Presley is a strong candidate, and Reeves unpopular. He might be vulnerable for other reasons. But yes, steep uphill climb for sure given the deeper polarization that exists in MS compared to KY or even LA.
