MS (Tulchin Research) - Pressley +4
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  MS (Tulchin Research) - Pressley +4
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Author Topic: MS (Tulchin Research) - Pressley +4  (Read 502 times)
BenjiG98
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« on: February 13, 2023, 10:55:36 AM »

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/02/13/tate-reeves-brandon-presley-governor-welfare/
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2023, 11:05:35 AM »

Sure.jan

Safe R
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2023, 11:27:35 AM »

Lean D ha to all RS that have this race Lean R, I called it
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GALeftist
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2023, 12:13:45 PM »

Sponsored by SPLC, so keep that in mind, but not Safe R I don't think
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2023, 02:41:24 PM »

New Poll: Mississippi Governor by Tulchin Research on 2023-01-25

Summary: D: 47%, R: 43%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2023, 03:13:33 PM »

47% is what Hood got in 2019. Not a bad sign for the Dems if they can maintain that number when a Democrat is in the White House, which probably also bodes well for Beshear.

Now I can see Dobbs having a marginal effect in Kentucky, but Mississippi is one of the last places I'd expect.
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Gracile
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« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2023, 03:30:28 PM »

47% is what I imagine Presley's ceiling would be if everything broke his way. Mississippi is so polarized that finding the extra few percentage points is impossible.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2023, 03:35:08 PM »

I'm not getting fooled by this, it's Safe Republican. The equivalent of that Biden +5 poll in New York or some of the Oklahoma polls from last year.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2023, 05:40:56 PM »

47% is what Hood got in 2019. Not a bad sign for the Dems if they can maintain that number when a Democrat is in the White House, which probably also bodes well for Beshear.

Now I can see Dobbs having a marginal effect in Kentucky, but Mississippi is one of the last places I'd expect.

I mean Kentucky voters pretty explicitly rejected Dobbs last November, and Beshear is very popular and crushing it in the polls right now. I can see the effect as a little more than marginal.

As for Mississippi, true that the New York Times did calculate based on the Kansas results that it would be one of the few states to vote to reject abortion rights (and they got Kentucky's vote pretty spot-on). So you might have a point there. But Presley is a strong candidate, and Reeves unpopular. He might be vulnerable for other reasons. But yes, steep uphill climb for sure given the deeper polarization that exists in MS compared to KY or even LA.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2023, 05:44:03 PM »

47% is probably all Presley will get in the end. I suppose that's not terrible but continues to indicate how hard of a ceiling Democrats have in the state.
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Senator theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2023, 05:57:39 PM »

Also isn't Pressley pro life?
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2023, 06:26:12 PM »

47% is probably all Presley will get in the end. I suppose that's not terrible but continues to indicate how hard of a ceiling Democrats have in the state.

He's leading not losing  users are so hard to believe a WC D can win in a Red state look at Beshear
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2023, 06:28:55 PM »


It won't matter he is cuz of Elvis, I won't be surprised Manchin, Brown or Kunce being up 5
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2023, 08:34:17 PM »


Apparently so, in which case there's possibly more of a chance of a John Bel Edwards like victory.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2023, 08:48:21 PM »

The welfare scandal is a pretty big deal and if Pressley can break 80% in Hinds County over the water scandal then he has a chance here.
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S019
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« Reply #15 on: February 13, 2023, 09:01:42 PM »

Isnít Tulchin Research a D Internal?
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PPT Sirius
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« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2023, 09:04:25 PM »

We're talking about a cycle where the other incumbents are democrats in Kentucky and Louisiana. Sometimes crazy things just happen. Especially in off years.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: February 13, 2023, 10:28:02 PM »

I'm not getting fooled by this, it's Safe Republican. The equivalent of that Biden +5 poll in New York or some of the Oklahoma polls from last year.

LoL 😅😅😅😅
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Spectator
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« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2023, 06:35:22 AM »

47% is what Hood got in 2019. Not a bad sign for the Dems if they can maintain that number when a Democrat is in the White House, which probably also bodes well for Beshear.

Now I can see Dobbs having a marginal effect in Kentucky, but Mississippi is one of the last places I'd expect.

Isnít Presley pretty openly pro-life? That would make Roe angst even more murky. Iím skeptical of Roe moving much though aside from keeping liberals engaged.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: February 15, 2023, 09:50:55 AM »

47% is probably all Presley will get in the end. I suppose that's not terrible but continues to indicate how hard of a ceiling Democrats have in the state.

Seems still too high, imho. I'd say the ceiling is 44%, more likely for this race is 41-43%.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: February 15, 2023, 10:54:52 AM »
« Edited: February 15, 2023, 10:58:23 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

47% is probably all Presley will get in the end. I suppose that's not terrible but continues to indicate how hard of a ceiling Democrats have in the state.

Seems still too high, imho. I'd say the ceiling is 44%, more likely for this race is 41-43%.

LoL do you know there are blks and females voting D, Females voted between 51/55 percent D and blks are 30 percent in MS Haley Barbour was very popular in MS Reeves isn't popular that's why Presley is gonna win

Do you know Beshear wasn't 9 pts ahead of Bevin he was 4 pts behind and blks with provisions ballots put him on top we go thru this over and over again TX and FL should not be targeting because of Abbott and DeSantis we were very close in NC and OH

DeWine isn't DeSantis that tells blks and females to vote R DeWine is a moderate that tells people to vote your conscience that's why Brown won by 3 and DeWine won in 2018
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2023, 01:40:15 PM »

Press X to doubt.
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