NV (OHPI) - Trump +2, Desantis +6 against Biden

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1623752146586935296?s=20

[President Johnson]

I have a feeling Nevada could flip in 2024, when if Biden makes gains elsewhere in the country.

However, the number of undecideds make this poll useless.

[Epaminondas]

Par for the course as many soft Biden followers are reluctant to endorse him openly. Not the cool thing to say.
He'll get 50% in either matchup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea we have seen this before NV polls always underestimate Ds

D's always overperform on VBM ballots

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a feeling Nevada could flip in 2024, when if Biden makes gains elsewhere in the country.

However, the number of undecideds make this poll useless.

LoL Jacky Rosen is on the ballot and doesn't have a challenge yea this poll is newsworthy only because RS are leading

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MARIST is the only pollster U trust on polls because they nailed NV, PA, GA and AZ last time

[Tekken_Guy]

I have a feeling Nevada could flip in 2024, when if Biden makes gains elsewhere in the country.

However, the number of undecideds make this poll useless.

Senator Adam Laxalt agrees.

[Minnesota Mike]

I have a feeling Nevada could flip in 2024, when if Biden makes gains elsewhere in the country.

However, the number of undecideds make this poll useless.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

DeSantis +6 is an ominous sign for Biden, but more than a fifth of voters remain undecided.

It's still not good news for Biden: DeSantis polls much higher than Biden among Independents, see his FL reelection victory.

Biden can take comfort in the fact that DeSantis won't come out unscathed from the primary with Trump, or Trump running as an Indepdent.

But I doubt it: Trump will complain and whine around for a few weeks and then support DeSantis' nomination.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis +6 is an ominous sign for Biden, but more than a fifth of voters remain undecided.

It's still not good news for Biden: DeSantis polls much higher than Biden among Independents, see his FL reelection victory.

Biden can take comfort in the fact that DeSantis won't come out unscathed from the primary with Trump, or Trump running as an Indepdent.

But I doubt it: Trump will complain and whine around for a few weeks and then support DeSantis' nomination.

LoL it's a poll taken 2 yrs before Eday

[Spectator]

I’m skeptical of most polling that shows Trump gaining relative to 2020.

[DaleCooper]

I’m skeptical of most polling that shows Trump gaining relative to 2020.

I've seen no evidence whatsoever that he has won over any significant number of Biden voters, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that first-time voters in 2024 will favor Trump. He would have to count on Biden voters staying home, but I doubt that is going to happen.

[BG-NY]

I’m skeptical of most polling that shows Trump gaining relative to 2020.

I've seen no evidence whatsoever that he has won over any significant number of Biden voters, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that first-time voters in 2024 will favor Trump. He would have to count on Biden voters staying home, but I doubt that is going to happen.

(1) Without Covid, the utilization of VBM likely won't be as high. Further, the GOP is starting to realize VBM can be weaponized by both sides.
(2) It's very unlikely we'll see as low a third party share in 2024 as we did in 2020 given the ease of canvassing without Covid restrictions.

[DaleCooper]

I’m skeptical of most polling that shows Trump gaining relative to 2020.

I've seen no evidence whatsoever that he has won over any significant number of Biden voters, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that first-time voters in 2024 will favor Trump. He would have to count on Biden voters staying home, but I doubt that is going to happen.

(1) Without Covid, the utilization of VBM likely won't be as high. Further, the GOP is starting to realize VBM can be weaponized by both sides.
(2) It's very unlikely we'll see as low a third party share in 2024 as we did in 2020 given the ease of canvassing without Covid restrictions.

Who is refusing to vote if they can't vote by mail? Voting by mail is as big of a pain in the ass as voting  in person is. If anything, rural people and old people are the only ones likely to not vote if they can't do it by mail.

[BG-NY]

Who is refusing to vote if they can't vote by mail? Voting by mail is as big of a pain in the ass as voting  in person is. If anything, rural people and old people are the only ones likely to not vote if they can't do it by mail.

It's not about refusing to vote, it's about laws not being equal. Look at Pennsylvania and Wisconsin specifically, which have arguably been tipping point states the last two elections.

They went from having the most restrictive laws on absentees, to implementing no excuse VBM, without adding early in-person voting. It's not about VBM being a problem, but not providing in-person options over the same period. VBM results have inarguably leaned far, far left since 2020, and given in-person early voting has leaned right, the GOP has been deprived of voting options in several integral states.

[wbrocks67]

I’m skeptical of most polling that shows Trump gaining relative to 2020.

Yeah, besides the fact that there are way too many undecideds here, after the 2022 results, how would it make any sense for Trump to *gain* compared to 2020?

[BG-NY]

I’m skeptical of most polling that shows Trump gaining relative to 2020.

Yeah, besides the fact that there are way too many undecideds here, after the 2022 results, how would it make any sense for Trump to *gain* compared to 2020?

He gained 12 million from 2016->2020.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I’m skeptical of most polling that shows Trump gaining relative to 2020.

I've seen no evidence whatsoever that he has won over any significant number of Biden voters, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that first-time voters in 2024 will favor Trump. He would have to count on Biden voters staying home, but I doubt that is going to happen.

There's no evidence Biden has gained over Trump voters either lol.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I’m skeptical of most polling that shows Trump gaining relative to 2020.

Yeah, besides the fact that there are way too many undecideds here, after the 2022 results, how would it make any sense for Trump to *gain* compared to 2020?

Because Trump voters didn't turn out.

[DaleCooper]

I’m skeptical of most polling that shows Trump gaining relative to 2020.

I've seen no evidence whatsoever that he has won over any significant number of Biden voters, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that first-time voters in 2024 will favor Trump. He would have to count on Biden voters staying home, but I doubt that is going to happen.

There's no evidence Biden has gained over Trump voters either lol.

What is this statement? Is this what passes for a sick burn these day? I guess I really have to spell it out for you, but the reason I was focusing on Trump persuading Biden voters (not the other way around) was because there were more Biden voters than there were Trump voters. So that would presumably indicate that Biden/Trump voters are the people we should be looking for if we're talking about Trump gaining relative to 2020, which was the topic of the post I responded to and quoted in the post that you just quoted and responded to.

[Lief 🗽]

Damn y’all are really going to believe Republican leads in Nevada polling all over again, huh?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's the same pollsters posting all the time underestimate Biden all you want he is gonna win again it's a Prez Race not a Midterm

The same pollsters has Gallego comfortable ahead of all RS in AZ if Gallego is leading in AZ no way we lose NV and Jacky Rosen has no challenge yet and it's not Laxalt

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’m skeptical of most polling that shows Trump gaining relative to 2020.

I've seen no evidence whatsoever that he has won over any significant number of Biden voters, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that first-time voters in 2024 will favor Trump. He would have to count on Biden voters staying home, but I doubt that is going to happen.

There's no evidence Biden has gained over Trump voters either lol.

What is this statement? Is this what passes for a sick burn these day? I guess I really have to spell it out for you, but the reason I was focusing on Trump persuading Biden voters (not the other way around) was because there were more Biden voters than there were Trump voters. So that would presumably indicate that Biden/Trump voters are the people we should be looking for if we're talking about Trump gaining relative to 2020, which was the topic of the post I responded to and quoted in the post that you just quoted and responded to.

There is no evidence it's 6 mnths after we voted THINGS CHANGE IN 2 YRS, we are leading in MS, KY Gov MT S and NC Gov and LA Gov is a Runoff

[Devils30]

I’m skeptical of most polling that shows Trump gaining relative to 2020.

Yeah, besides the fact that there are way too many undecideds here, after the 2022 results, how would it make any sense for Trump to *gain* compared to 2020?

CCM won a Trump +3 electorate in 2022 as well. Dem turnout was way down but CCM unexpectedly won independents. A lot of state polls were as bad in 2022 as 2020/2016 but they get a pass because they missed the other way.

[TodayJunior]

Biden wins by 4. Next!