2023 Jacksonville Mayoral Election (jungle primary 3/21, runoff 5/16)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What kind of campaign did Deegan run to get this kind of crossover support from Republicans?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Lol rip Cumber

[Dereich]

What kind of campaign did Deegan run to get this kind of crossover support from Republicans?

Not much of one; she didn't need to. She was far and away the most well-known candidate due to her prior news work and charity activities. The charity activities are worth highlighting especially; it was very good for her political career that her charity's marathon (the biggest annual marathon and charity event in the city for 15 years) is called the DONNA marathon. Lots of positive name recognition.

[Oryxslayer]

Basically the final results. Davis also advances. I think the results make it clear that both candidates can win in a runoff situation, despite the the electorate favoring the GOP by registration.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1638337414715396096?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What kind of campaign did Deegan run to get this kind of crossover support from Republicans?

Not much of one; she didn't need to. She was far and away the most well-known candidate due to her prior news work and charity activities. The charity activities are worth highlighting especially; it was very good for her political career that her charity's marathon (the biggest annual marathon and charity event in the city for 15 years) is called the DONNA marathon. Lots of positive name recognition.

Ah.
I can see that translating into a good result.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL IS TRENDING D I WILL DONATE TO WHOMEVER GETS THE MOMENTUM FOR NOMINEE'S

There is a myth going on with Spector saying that TX is more winnable than FL where is the Emerson poll that shows Biden within 5 of a R candidate and Cruz says he will crush any D, why would Allred lose his SENORITY in the H and D's can take the H and lose a S race anyways

I will be happy to put it on my map like I did FL, no one has endorsed John Love but Bernie and Shontel Brown are in Twitter of Boswell account

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Deegan might be the most Republican-looking Democratic candidate I've ever seen.

[Хahar 🤔]

Deegan might be the most Republican-looking Democratic candidate I've ever seen.

You're right, and it's interesting. That being said (and, just as a fair warning, the rest of this post is barely related), Amanda Mull, the contemporary writer I trust the most by far to write honestly and perceptively about Southern culture, a few years ago wrote a really good piece about the connotations of blonde hair in the South. None of them look quite like Donna Deegan, but there's a particular type of blonde look that white women in the South will often have even when they're Democrats. (Angie Craig might look like this if she were blonde.) I'm most familiar with the Atlanta area, where prominent Democratic politicians who look like this are Jen Jordan and Shea Roberts. My one friend from there who I really think could go into politics looks like that but younger. It might present as Republican but really it's just the look when you're from a town with two churches and you're with the Methodists, not the Baptists.

[smoltchanov]

Well - pragmatic and relatively moderate liberal Democrat vs. pragmatic and, generally, moderate conservative Republican. No extremists here. Good!

[UWS]

If we combine the numbers of Cumber, Ferraro and Keasler to Davis’, that gives Davis 52 % of the vote in the second round

Here is another reason why Davis will win. Deegan is just another radical anti-law enforcement defund the police socialist. Deegan endorsed Gillum over Gwen Graham in the 2018 Dem gubernatorial primary even though Gillum called for the abolition of ICE. And even though Jacksonville has the highest crime rate of all the large cities in FL with a crime rate of 34 per 1000 residents and Jacksonville is safer than just 8 % of U.S. cities, Deegan wants to abolish money cash bail which would have allowed the release of violent criminals like the responsible of the Waukesha Christmas parade attack into society

https://folioweekly.com/2018/04/18/donna-deegans-first-political-endorsement-is-as-bold-as-it-is-surprising/

https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/fl/jacksonville/crime

https://www.thecentersquare.com/florida/article_9f88a892-bc5a-11ed-932d-6f0daa825750.html

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/public-statement/1473469/issue-position-criminal-justice-reform

Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis law and order policies resulted that Florida’s crime rate is at a 50 year low by signing the most comprehensive pro-law enforcement legislation in the nation, prohibiting defunding the police. And if local governments try to defund law enforcement, the Governor and Cabinet can override them and reinstate the funding. And Daniel Davis has led the charge to add 100 additional police officers in the streets when he was in the city council and will always support law enforcement by giving them the tools they need to fight crime and he is the candidate Jacksonville can trust to keep them safe

https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/verify/yes-florida-crime-rate-is-at-a-50-year-low-true/77-0e2806a6-946c-4613-aba2-d85ac0bafeae

https://flvoicenews.com/jacksonville-mayoral-candidates-debate-less-than-two-weeks-from-election/

[FloridaMan1845]

FL IS TRENDING D I WILL DONATE TO WHOMEVER GETS THE MOMENTUM FOR NOMINEE'S

There is a myth going on with Spector saying that TX is more winnable than FL where is the Emerson poll that shows Biden within 5 of a R candidate and Cruz says he will crush any D, why would Allred lose his SENORITY in the H and D's can take the H and lose a S race anyways

I will be happy to put it on my map like I did FL, no one has endorsed John Love but Bernie and Shontel Brown are in Twitter of Boswell account

FLORIDA ISN’T TRENDING D. This is the dumbest electoral take I’ve seen on this forum in my short tenure.

[FloridaMan1845]

We have a poll! Its a poll with decimals, but its still a poll! A fairly surprising one too:

Donna Deegan (D): 35.2%
Daniel Davis (R): 17.5%
Al Ferraro (R): 10.6%
Audrey Gibson (D): 10.2%
LeAnne Gutierrez Cumber (R): 4.1%
Omega Allen (I): 2.4%
Frank Keasler (R): 0.4%

Undecided / Won’t say: 19.7%

Runoff

Donna Deegan: 51.3%
Daniel Davis: 25.8%


478 LV, St. Pete Polls from February 13th

That Cumber, who has spent more in the last month than Deegan has raised in total, is all the way at 4% is pathetic. I still expect her to outperform these numbers by quite a bit since she's gotten several recent endorsements from local organizations known to campaign well, but its a bad sign for her making it to round 2. Al Ferraro, undistinguished city councilor and lawn service owner, is also doing surprisingly well.

No one is really attacking her yet, but Deegan seems well placed to take over the largest city in the country currently run by a Republican.

It's the same firm polling that had Andrew Gillum winning by 5 in 2018, had Charlie Crist winning by 1 percentage point and had DeSantis winning by just 6 percentage points.

Deegan is the 2020 Democratic nominee in FL-04 and she lost it by 22 percentage points against John Rutherford even though she made healthcare, climate change, and gun violence prevention her top priorities. And Republicans won the Duval County by double digits last year and last November Republicans had a registration edge by 22,000 in the Duval County over the Democrats and it likely increased since then

Deegan's positions are out of step with the people of Jacksonville. Deegan called mask mandates "good news". She opposed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 even though it contributed to strong job creation and prosperity in the country, including in Jacksonville, she said in 2020 that she would support Biden's plan to increase taxes and raise nearly $4 trillion over the next decade and increasing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.

If you look at states that implement the policies supported by Deegan - high taxes, high regulations, mask mandates - states, you look at California, which is hemmoraging population. No wonder that these policies supported by Deegan resulted that Tesla moved its headquarters from California to Texas. No wonder that the cost of U-Haul travel from California to Florida is 200 % the cost of a U-Haul travel from Florida to California because in Florida, including in Jacksonville, we understand that if you get the government off the back of small businesses Floridians do well. That's why Jacksonville's unemployment rate went from 6.1 % in 2015 to 2.1 % today. And Daniel Davis understands it through his experience as president of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce and he has the right knowledge and background to pursue Jacksonville's prosperity through lower taxes, small government and free enterprise

RS aren't winning OH or FL by 25 pts ever again that's for sure that's why Brown stands a better chance than Ryan DeWine single handle won the Sen race for Vance he only won by 6 and DeWine isn't on the ballot 24

The S race with Scott and Matt Boswell is gonna  be within 5 pts

JD Vance and Jeanette Nunez will win by like 12-15 when they’re up for election.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/FLPolEnjoyer/status/1638371579104051200

Anyone have any insight into what happened in City Council District 1?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/FLPolEnjoyer/status/1638371579104051200

Anyone have any insight into what happened in City Council District 1?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ city and local politics tend to be the least polarized, especially in smaller cities. There are some rural west Kansas counties with democratic DA’s. I’d I had to guess the republican is a well known name who is much more moderate then could ever get elected federally while the democrat was a non-serious candidate, ideological outlier, or just a bad campaigner

[Dereich]

https://twitter.com/FLPolEnjoyer/status/1638371579104051200

Anyone have any insight into what happened in City Council District 1?

This district has been growing steadily more democratic for over a decade due to white flight, a process that is ongoing in the area. However, particularly near Jacksonville University and along the river there are still a few gated community and clumps of older white Jacksonvillians who have lived there all their lives. The younger black electorate and JU students had abysmal turnout and mostly don't show up for non-presidential races (Rubio also won the district in 2022) while the older whites in the area are exactly the sort who still show up and vote GOP in every local election but might not have done so in lockstep for Trump.

[America Needs R'hllor]

If we combine the numbers of Cumber, Ferraro and Keasler to Davis’, that gives Davis 52 % of the vote in the second round

Here is another reason why Davis will win. Deegan is just another radical anti-law enforcement defund the police socialist. Deegan endorsed Gillum over Gwen Graham in the 2018 Dem gubernatorial primary even though Gillum called for the abolition of ICE. And even though Jacksonville has the highest crime rate of all the large cities in FL with a crime rate of 34 per 1000 residents and Jacksonville is safer than just 8 % of U.S. cities, Deegan wants to abolish money cash bail which would have allowed the release of violent criminals like the responsible of the Waukesha Christmas parade attack into society

https://folioweekly.com/2018/04/18/donna-deegans-first-political-endorsement-is-as-bold-as-it-is-surprising/

https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/fl/jacksonville/crime

https://www.thecentersquare.com/florida/article_9f88a892-bc5a-11ed-932d-6f0daa825750.html

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/public-statement/1473469/issue-position-criminal-justice-reform

Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis law and order policies resulted that Florida’s crime rate is at a 50 year low by signing the most comprehensive pro-law enforcement legislation in the nation, prohibiting defunding the police. And if local governments try to defund law enforcement, the Governor and Cabinet can override them and reinstate the funding. And Daniel Davis has led the charge to add 100 additional police officers in the streets when he was in the city council and will always support law enforcement by giving them the tools they need to fight crime and he is the candidate Jacksonville can trust to keep them safe

https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/verify/yes-florida-crime-rate-is-at-a-50-year-low-true/77-0e2806a6-946c-4613-aba2-d85ac0bafeae

https://flvoicenews.com/jacksonville-mayoral-candidates-debate-less-than-two-weeks-from-election/

Nobody cares. Put the Fox News talking points in the bag, stop clogging serious (and interesting - thanks Dereich!) threads and go back to writing endless paragraphs about marco rubio - the adults are speaking.

[ajc0918]

Republicans outspent Dems $10 million to $1 million which explains the turnout differential.

I expect Davis will win because DeSantis is going to spend to ensure he wins. If a Dem picked up Jacksonville it would hurt his presidential ambitions.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Republicans outspent Dems $10 million to $1 million which explains the turnout differential.

I expect Davis will win because DeSantis is going to spend to ensure he wins. If a Dem picked up Jacksonville it would hurt his presidential ambitions.

I don’t see how Jacksonville electing a Democrat hurts DeSantis’s presidential ambitions, especially when it seems he’ll be more busy with Trump being arrested and possible extradition.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

FL IS TRENDING D I WILL DONATE TO WHOMEVER GETS THE MOMENTUM FOR NOMINEE'S

There is a myth going on with Spector saying that TX is more winnable than FL where is the Emerson poll that shows Biden within 5 of a R candidate and Cruz says he will crush any D, why would Allred lose his SENORITY in the H and D's can take the H and lose a S race anyways

I will be happy to put it on my map like I did FL, no one has endorsed John Love but Bernie and Shontel Brown are in Twitter of Boswell account

FLORIDA ISN’T TRENDING D. This is the dumbest electoral take I’ve seen on this forum in my short tenure.

Have a little respect for your elders dude.

[2016]

# 1 Nikki Fried gets elected Florida Democratic Party Chair

# 2 Democrats OWN a 40-35 Registration Advantage in Duval County (By that vitue alone D's should be winning yet Republicans outvoted Republicans in Duval County in the Tuesday Jacksonville Mayoral Jungle Primary)

# 3 A Republican WINS a City Council Seat on Tuesday by 30 Points in a District that would have voted for President Biden during the 2020 Presidential Election by 11 Points.

# 4 Great Job Nikki Fried

# 5 Enough said!

I rest my case about the Florida Democratic Party!

[wbrocks67]

# 1 Nikki Fried gets elected Florida Democratic Party Chair

# 2 Democrats OWN a 40-35 Registration Advantage in Duval County (By that vitue alone D's should be winning yet Republicans outvoted Republicans in Duval County in the Tuesday Jacksonville Mayoral Jungle Primary)

# 3 A Republican WINS a City Council Seat on Tuesday by 30 Points in a District that would have voted for President Biden during the 2020 Presidential Election by 11 Points.

# 4 Great Job Nikki Fried

# 5 Enough said!

I rest my case about the Florida Democratic Party!

.... this was the best performance in a primary for Jacksonville Mayor for Democrats in like 3 decades...

[Dereich]

The disparity in the 1st district city council race compared to the mayoral result in the same district was unusual; while I stand by what I said earlier for a good part of that result, but looking into it further it looks like there was a bit of a scandal which I missed with the Democratic candidate a few weeks ago where he lied about his resume, saying he'd gone to the local community college when he did not. That could also have contributed to the overly wide scope of the loss.

[2016]

The disparity in the 1st district city council race compared to the mayoral result in the same district was unusual; while I stand by what I said earlier for a good part of that result, but looking into it further it looks like there was a bit of a scandal which I missed with the Democratic candidate a few weeks ago where he lied about his resume, saying he'd gone to the local community college when he did not. That could also have contributed to the overly wide scope of the loss.

When do you give up on Florida? Democrats and Socialists like Nikki Fried will never win there.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The disparity in the 1st district city council race compared to the mayoral result in the same district was unusual; while I stand by what I said earlier for a good part of that result, but looking into it further it looks like there was a bit of a scandal which I missed with the Democratic candidate a few weeks ago where he lied about his resume, saying he'd gone to the local community college when he did not. That could also have contributed to the overly wide scope of the loss.

When do you give up on Florida? Democrats and Socialists like Nikki Fried will never win there.

The IQ disparity between these two comments is amazing. Hydregen bomb vs coughing baby