2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting

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Explanation: Even though almost 60% of this district is Massachusetts, in reality it is split between the Southeast portion and the Worcester NECTA portion. As a result I think the incumbents from Rhode Island would have the best chances to come out of a Democratic primary and with seniority I think it ends up being Jack Reed. He would sail on to victory in the general. 

Why wouldn't Elizabeth Warren go for this seat? She's incumbent too.

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snip

I’d think Kean runs for house again, he’d probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.

Who do you think would run in this Senate seat?

I honestly don’t know. It wouldn’t be Chris Smith because he seems content in his safe house seat. Ciattarelli seems like he’s eyeing governor again in 2025. Guadagno left the GOP a year or two ago. Malliotakis may consider it because of the Hochulmander, and it’s probably too late for her to drop back down after it’s overturned in April. But she’ll have a hard time winning outside of NJ.

I imagine the nominee will be someone from Monmouth or Ocean. They’d have a big advantage in any primary because Republican voters are mostly packed there.  Maybe Tom MacArthur would make his comeback here?

The other obvious option is Mehmet Oz. He doesn't live in the part of New Jersey covered by this district, but given a competitive district here, it wouldn't be as far to carpetbag as Pennsylvania was.

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District 43: Congaree Bottomland & Peach Country
Population: 3,189,541 (-3.77%)
States: Georgia (50.40%) and South Carolina (49.60%)
Largest City: Augusta, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.11%-48.66%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.40%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.04%
Demographics: 50% White, 5% Hispanic, 41% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The idea with this district was to attempt to connect all the African American communities in the Georgia Black Belt and Central South Carolina. Unfortunately, given the current demographics in this region, it comes a little short. I considered drawing an arm into the Charleston Metropolitan Area to pick up Black voters there, but I decided against it as I don’t think it would get it over 50% VAP. I do still think this is still a solid district from a community of interest point of view as it connects similar sized metros in Columbia, Augusta, Macon, and Columbus. Also, just as an interesting observation, I’m pretty sure this is the district that is the closest to a pure 50-50 split between two states.

2022 Election: Stephen Benjamin (D-Colulmbia, SC) vs Drew Ferguson (R-West Point, GA)
Explanation: Given the results from 2020, I would expect this race to draw two solid candidates from both parties. For the Democrats, I decided to go with then Columbia, SC mayor Stephen Benjamin and for the Republicans, Rep. Drew Fergueson. Fergueson is considering a run for Governor in 2026, so he clearly has some desire for a promotion. Democrats did not do well in this region in the 2020 midterm elections. Using an average of elections in Georgia and the Governor’s race in South Carolina, the Republicans won here by around 4.5 points, a 6 point swing from Biden’s results in 2020. I would expect Ferguson to win here as well.

Would it not be possible to make this district majority black by bringing in the likes of Montgomery, Alabama?