2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting (user search)
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  2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting  (Read 3723 times)
Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
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Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« on: February 09, 2023, 10:05:37 PM »

How are you drawing these maps that span states?
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2023, 03:59:24 PM »

Are you assuming senators are elected every two years? Or is some other system in place?
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2023, 12:44:59 AM »



District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Caseyís district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion heís been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: Iím sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomeyís district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governorís race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.



Dude if you donít like how heís doing it make your own thread
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2023, 02:19:13 PM »

Yea I was trying this on my own for funsies and DRA was having issues, especially when I had multiple instances of it running
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2023, 05:25:52 PM »

Yea I was trying this on my own for funsies and DRA was having issues, especially when I had multiple instances of it running

I've never even tried of running multiple instances of DRA, that may have lead me to be dissatisfied with the boundaries of the western districts when I also tried this idea for fun a while back.

Is it even possible for California to run well? I donít know if the problem is my internet or my computer but on every device Iíve tried California is laggy enough to make it not worth it.

I can barely chug it out on my work laptop but on my home cpu it works fine enough
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2023, 05:55:07 PM »

With regard to the Upper Chesapeake and Potomac valley is it possible to rearrange them to create a majority black seat?
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2023, 12:25:09 PM »

Small note Beasley is from Fayetteville according to Wikipedia, still lives in the seat tho
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2023, 03:14:30 AM »

Oh god Kane is totally the Republican Fetterman ittl
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2023, 03:43:58 PM »

Can you elaborate on why you called it Mid South? Itís an ok name but Iím not sure what else to call it. A district containing Illinois being called South just feels wrong in my bones lol

Maybe Confluence, from the Mississippi and Ohio River?
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2023, 05:12:39 PM »

Can you elaborate on why you called it Mid South? Itís an ok name but Iím not sure what else to call it. A district containing Illinois being called South just feels wrong in my bones lol

Maybe Confluence, from the Mississippi and Ohio River?

I mean I guess I could have gone with the name Mid-South & Little Egypt, but Wikipedia doesn't have an issue with it

Quote
The Mid-South is an informally-defined region of the United States, usually thought to be anchored by the Memphis metropolitan area and consisting of West Tennessee, North Mississippi, Southern Missouri, Western Kentucky, Central, Northeast, and Eastern Arkansas, Northwest Alabama and even Eastern Oklahoma.[2] Southern Illinois (especially Cairo, shown on the map) and Southwestern Indiana are sometimes included in this region.
Mid-South

oh I hate that 😅
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2023, 03:16:33 PM »



District 40: Grand River Watershed
Population: 3,223,713 (-2.74)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.18%-48.03%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.12%
Demographics: 76% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The objective here was to create a Southern Michigan based district that did not go into the Detroit Metropolitan Area. At its core is the Grand Rapids Metropolitan Area, but I also had to add the metro areas of Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Monroe, Muskegon, and most of Lansing.

2022 Election: Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing, MI) vs Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake, MI)
Explanation: Democrats did very good in this district in the 2022 elections. fWhitmer, Benson, and Nessel won this district by an average of 9.5 points. Elissa Slotkin has already essentially cleared the field for the 2024 Senate race in Michigan, so you would have to think sheíd be able to do the same here. Also, given her historical overperformance in her Congressional district I think she wins by a margin similar to the statewide Dems or more. I think the Republicans also put forward a credible candidate here given how close this seat is in general. Senate Majority Mike Shirkey, who was term limited, decides to jump in thinking the environment would be a good one for Republicans, only to lose by almost double digits.

Hey Gass. Iím still waiting on a reply. If you make Gottheimer a Senator I wonít complain about Underwood.

Thatís an ultimatum, not a ďdealĒ
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2023, 12:40:45 PM »

Small question whatís the difference between swing and trend?
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Peltola for God Empress
leecannon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,768
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2023, 02:31:29 PM »

Speaking of squakers, in my own version of this I did the math for the nevada based seat and doing some napkin math I ended up with Cortez Masto winning by less than 2,000 votes
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