2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting

[Tekken_Guy]

District 11: Jersey Shore
Population: 3,474,536 (+4.83%)
States: New Jersey (91.21%) and New York (8.79%)
Largest City: Lakewood Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: R+1
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.57%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.21%
Demographics: 59% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Black, 14% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The thought process here was to take as much of the southernmost portion of the New York Combined Statistical area. This included grabbing the Trenton-Princeton area as it is generally more connected to the New York area than the Philadelphia area. I also felt that it made sense to add the southern portions of Staten Island to this district.

2022 Election: Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch, NJ) vs Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield, NJ)
Explanation: After a close defeat for the House in 2020, Tom Kean, Jr. decided to give it a go for this new Senate district in 2022. He dominates the northern portion during the primary and goes on to a solid win in the general thanks to the Republican strength in the New York suburbs during the last election. Frank Pallone Jr. picks the wrong time to make another stab at a Senate run.

I’d think Kean runs for house again, he’d probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

snip

I’d think Kean runs for house again, he’d probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.

Who do you think would run in this Senate seat?

I honestly don’t know. It wouldn’t be Chris Smith because he seems content in his safe house seat. Ciattarelli seems like he’s eyeing governor again in 2025. Guadagno left the GOP a year or two ago. Malliotakis may consider it because of the Hochulmander, and it’s probably too late for her to drop back down after it’s overturned in April. But she’ll have a hard time winning outside of NJ.

I imagine the nominee will be someone from Monmouth or Ocean. They’d have a big advantage in any primary because Republican voters are mostly packed there.  Maybe Tom MacArthur would make his comeback here?

[Tekken_Guy]

snip

I’d think Kean runs for house again, he’d probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.

Who do you think would run in this Senate seat?

I honestly don’t know. It wouldn’t be Chris Smith because he seems content in his safe house seat. Ciattarelli seems like he’s eyeing governor again in 2025. Guadagno left the GOP a year or two ago. Malliotakis may consider it because of the Hochulmander, and it’s probably too late for her to drop back down after it’s overturned in April. But she’ll have a hard time winning outside of NJ.

I imagine the nominee will be someone from Monmouth or Ocean. They’d have a big advantage in any primary because Republican voters are mostly packed there.  Maybe Tom MacArthur would make his comeback here?

Malliotakis is a possibility, but like you said there is so much New Jersey here for her to have to compete in. Tom MacArthur is a solid choice. I might go back and change this. Let me think about it.

After seeing the results it seems Biden indeed won that senate seat by slightly less than NJ-07. Maybe Kean does go for the seat after all, though Malinowski’s probably re-elected if he does so.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 14: Lehigh Valley & Skyland
Population: 3,417,415 (+3.11%)
States: New Jersey (71.35%) and Pennsylvania (28.65%)
Largest City: Paterson, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+3
Biden/Trump: 54.62%-44.12%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.07
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.71
Demographics: 60% White, 21% Hispanic, 10% Black, 9% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The core of this district is centered around the last piece of the New York City Metropolitan Area, largely in New Jersey with a tiny part in Pennsylvania. This still left about a quarter of the district that needed to be filled. Thankfully the population of the Lehigh Valley Metropolitan Area was exactly the number I was looking for.

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs William Prempeh (R-Paterson, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. I have Mikie Sherrill choosing to run here after beating Josh Gottheimer in the Democratic primary after getting the pivotal endorsement of Susan WIld in the Lehigh Valley. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid high single digit win.

I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.

District 15: Delaware Valley
Population: 3,469,722 (+4.68%)
States: Delaware (16.45%), New Jersey (49.52%) and Pennsylvania 34.04%
Largest City: Cherry Hill Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+5
Biden/Trump: 56.99%-41.74%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.38
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.02
Demographics: 67% White, 11% Hispanic, 10% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The explanation for this district will make more sense once I discuss the next district, but in short, the goal here was to have a district that includes all of the outer areas of the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area. I also included the counties in South Jersey that are not in the Philly Metro, but would have no other place to go.

2022 Election: Thomas Carper (D-Wilmington, DE) vs Jefferson Van Drew (R-Dennis Township, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Joe Biden’s district had this system been in place during his time in the Senate. Even though Delaware only makes up a little over 15% of this district, I would expect there would be incumbent deference and one of either Tom Carper or Chris Coons would end up getting the nomination. I went with Carper due to his seniority. On the Republican side I went with Rep. Van Drew as I could see Republicans wanting someone they could sell as a former Democrat. Governor Murphy narrowly lost the New Jersey portion of this in 2021, but Democrats did very well in the Delaware and Pennsylvania portions in 2022, so this would not end up being that close.

Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

[Tekken_Guy]

snip

I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.

snip

Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  

I went with Mr. X's take on this. Gottheimer runs for Governor in 2025 and Sherrill runs for the Sente here.

Sherrill has had her eyes on the governorship for the past couple of years. A Gottheimer bid was not even on the radar until about a month or two ago and wasn't when this Senate race was going into effect. There's a logical reason Gottheimer would be more ilkely to run for the seat than Sherrill. I didn't even know he was even in consideration for the governorship until today.

Besides, this would be my senate seat. It would have been really nice if you went my way on this and picked Gottheimer.

[Tekken_Guy]

snip

I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.

snip

Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  

I went with Mr. X's take on this. Gottheimer runs for Governor in 2025 and Sherrill runs for the Sente here.

Sherrill has had her eyes on the governorship for the past couple of years. A Gottheimer bid was not even on the radar until about a month or two ago and wasn't when this Senate race was going into effect. There's a logical reason Gottheimer would be more ilkely to run for the seat than Sherrill. I didn't even know he was even in consideration for the governorship until today.

Besides, this would be my senate seat. It would have been really nice if you went my way on this and picked Gottheimer.

I'm going with Sherrill, but for our purposes it really doesn't matter as the main thing is in this cycle the winner from this district would be a Democrat.

Honestly I could envision it being where Gottheimer runs at first with Sherrill eyeing 2025, but the DSCC forces him out in favor of Sherrill as he starts to become a thorn in the side of the party.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 14: Lehigh Valley & Skyland
Population: 3,417,415 (+3.11%)
States: New Jersey (71.35%) and Pennsylvania (28.65%)
Largest City: Paterson, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+3
Biden/Trump: 54.62%-44.12%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.07
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.71
Demographics: 60% White, 21% Hispanic, 10% Black, 9% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The core of this district is centered around the last piece of the New York City Metropolitan Area, largely in New Jersey with a tiny part in Pennsylvania. This still left about a quarter of the district that needed to be filled. Thankfully the population of the Lehigh Valley Metropolitan Area was exactly the number I was looking for.

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs William Prempeh (R-Paterson, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. I have Mikie Sherrill choosing to run here after beating Josh Gottheimer in the Democratic primary after getting the pivotal endorsement of Susan WIld in the Lehigh Valley. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid high single digit win.

I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.

District 15: Delaware Valley
Population: 3,469,722 (+4.68%)
States: Delaware (16.45%), New Jersey (49.52%) and Pennsylvania 34.04%
Largest City: Cherry Hill Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+5
Biden/Trump: 56.99%-41.74%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.38
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.02
Demographics: 67% White, 11% Hispanic, 10% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The explanation for this district will make more sense once I discuss the next district, but in short, the goal here was to have a district that includes all of the outer areas of the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area. I also included the counties in South Jersey that are not in the Philly Metro, but would have no other place to go.

2022 Election: Thomas Carper (D-Wilmington, DE) vs Jefferson Van Drew (R-Dennis Township, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Joe Biden’s district had this system been in place during his time in the Senate. Even though Delaware only makes up a little over 15% of this district, I would expect there would be incumbent deference and one of either Tom Carper or Chris Coons would end up getting the nomination. I went with Carper due to his seniority. On the Republican side I went with Rep. Van Drew as I could see Republicans wanting someone they could sell as a former Democrat. Governor Murphy narrowly lost the New Jersey portion of this in 2021, but Democrats did very well in the Delaware and Pennsylvania portions in 2022, so this would not end up being that close.

Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  

I actually disagree with you re: Sherrill/Gottheimer. Sherrill had been planning a gubernatorial run for quite awhile now whereas Gottheimer was not even on the radar for the governorship until a month or two ago. I don’t think either get the next NJ senate seat in our timeline (unless Menendez is primaried out I think that goes to Kim).

Also while Gottheimer definitely won’t beat Sherrill in a Senate primary he won’t beat her for the Governorship either. And since both are centrists from the neoliberal wing I can’t imagine a lot of people who’d vote for Sherrill in a primary but not Gottheimer.

That being said, a few points that actually work in Sherrill’s favor I didn’t think of. Gottheimer being a thorn in the side of the Democrats could lead the DSCC to force him out in favor of Sherrill even if he was the original nominee. Also Gottheimer leaving would have (theoretically) put his seat at risk but Sherrill’s seat would be fine without her.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: I’m sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: I’m sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.

Dude if you don’t like how he’s doing it make your own thread

I’m just sharing my opinions.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 24: Maumee & St. Joseph River Watersheds
Population: 3,467,640 (+4.62%)
States: Indiana (48.73%), Michigan (8.99%) and Ohio (42.28%)
Largest City: Toledo, Ohio
Cook PVI: R+15
Biden/Trump: 36.79%-61.40%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +0.50
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.85
Demographics: 79% White, 7% Hispanic, 9% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district stretches from the Michiana region along Lake Michigan all the way over to the western tip of Lake Erie. It combines the metropolitan areas of Fort Wayne, South Bend, Toledo, and dozens of other metro/micropolitan areas. The end result is a very rural, yet industrial influenced district with a large Amish population in addition to a large number of German Catholics.

2022 Election: Craig Swartz (D-Upper Sanduskty, OH) vs Jim Banks (R-Columbia City, IN)
Explanation: Unsurprisingly, this district is incredibly conservative and winning the Republican primary is tantamount to winning the general election. Jim Banks, who is running for the Senate in Indiana, is from this district. He would be the clear favorite in a Republica primary and would cruise through the general election. Craig Swartz, who likes to run campaigns he has to know he can’t win, decides to be the sacrificial lamb here.

Banks wouldn’t run if the seat was up in 2022. At the time he still had his eye on house leadership and only switched gears IRL after he got shut out.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think another interesting thing to look at is the butterfly effect this has on house races.

Here's what I have so far:

GA-03: Drew Ferguson's senate run would lead to a crowded primary to replace him. State Senator Matt Brass could possibly run here, but I could see him be defeated in the runoff by a first-time candidate, like Andrew Clyde did in 2020 and Ferguson himself in 2016.
IL-02: For Robin Kelly's seat, I'm picking State Senator Napoleon Harris. He's a former NFL star and ran in the 2016 Senate primary that Tammy Duckworth won.
IL-14: Lauren Underwood's new seat is now centered around Will County, and her successor will likely come from there. For the purpose of this project, I'd pick Meg Loughran Cappel, a state senator. Marie Newman may or may not carpetbag here, but I doubt she'll win a primary regardless.
IN-03: Jim Banks leaves his seat open two years early. I'd imagine a lot of the same candidate we'll see run in 2024 would run here. I heard rumors Marlin Stutzman is seeking a comeback. For the purpose of this scenario I'd recommend Stutzman as the nominee here.
MD-03: With John Sarbanes running for senate in this district, a possible house successor is Howard County Executive Calvin Ball.
MI-07: Slotkin, like Banks, is leaving for Senate in real life in 2024. Curtis Hertel, a state senator who succeeded Gretchen Whitmer, could run here. He was termed out in 2022 and is heavily speculated for the 2024 seat IRL. The race is closer than our timelines but Tom Barrett still loses.
MI-09: Lisa McClain is succeeded by former rep. Shane Hernandez, who was the runner up in the 2020 primary. This means Tudor Dixon chooses someone else as a running mate.
MS-02: For Bennie Thompson's seat, I picked Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba, who emerges victorious after a runoff with DeKeither Stamps.
NC-03: I imagine the primary to replace Greg Murphy will be crowded. In the end, I'll have Bobby Hanig, then a state rep. but now a State Senator, as our winner.
NJ-06: With Frank Pallone running in the Jersey Shore district. a natural successor would be State Senator Vin Gopal.
NJ-07: Since Tom Kean is running for Senate in your scenario, maybe Jack Ciattarelli considers? On the other hand, he's clearly planning another gubernatorial run so the GOP may be stuck with Erik Peterson or Phil Rizzo. Rik Mehta, the 2020 Senate nominee, is from Chester, so he could definitely run here rather than make his carpetbag down to NJ-06. I'll go with Mehta.
NJ-11: This is a tough one, There are not a lot of Democratic lawmakers in the area. Nia Gill, Mila Jasey, and Tom Giblin are all very old, and there are hardly any Republicans in office in Morris. I'll go with Essex County Commissioner Leonard Luciano here.
NY-14: Maybe Alessandra Biaggi chooses to run here?
NY-23: Without Paladino in the house race, maybe another Erie-based candidate runs here instead. Like Stefan Mychajliw. I still think Langworthy wins the primary though.
NY-24: Without Claudia Tenney it's likely someone who actually lives here will run. Someone like State Senator Rob Ortt.
OH-12: State Senator Jay Hottinger lives here and was termed out in 2022. He seems like the one to pick.
PA-02: Maybe Boyle's brother takes the seat? If that's too much nepotism, then maybe Ed Neilson?
TN-08: Kustoff going for senate opens up a primary battle between Shelby and the rurals. I doubt Stephen Fincher makes a comeback. State Senator John Stevens seems like he'd be the main Rural candidate. For the Shelby part, I don't know and obvious frontrunners. Maybe Trustee and 2018 mayoral candidate David Lenoir runs. I'll go with Lenoir, who narrowly edges out Stevens in the race.
VA-02: Kiggans still wins, but she needs a different opponent. Can't see any of the delegates run because they were busy with their off-year re-election campaigns. But Cheryl Turpin, who Kiggans beat for state senate, is a possibility.
WV-02: Alex Mooney leaving the house means two more years of David McKinley.

BONUSSES

GA-11: You mentioned there's a MAGA Republican who Woodall narrowly beat. I'll have it be Barry Loudermilk, and in turn be having having Ed Setzler, then a State Rep., take his house seat instead of going for State Senate.
NJ-05: In my scenario, the failed Gottheimer senate run just runs him out of congress entirely. State Senator Joe Lagana is picked to replace him.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

[Tekken_Guy]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

Fine by me.

Until Gass and/or Mr. X agree to it though it’s not official.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

No dice, I’d rather have Casten or whoever in this seat and Sherrill (or really almost anyone but Gottheimer) in the North Jersey seat if we’re doing it that way

But really this is all Gass3268’s call.  We can certainly make arguments for changes we think make sense, but whether Casten or Underwood gets the seat is really up to Gass3268 (as it should be given that this is his project).

Yeah I honestly was not able to make a good case for either Casten or Gottheimer getting the seat. I was trying to put my personal preferences in. My only arguments (Sherrill wants to be Governor, Casten avoids a double bunking) were very flimsy, and your counterarguments (Gottheimer also wants to be governor, Newman was damaged goods, Gottheimer would basically be another Sinema).

[Tekken_Guy]

District 40: Grand River Watershed
Population: 3,223,713 (-2.74)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.18%-48.03%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.12%
Demographics: 76% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The objective here was to create a Southern Michigan based district that did not go into the Detroit Metropolitan Area. At its core is the Grand Rapids Metropolitan Area, but I also had to add the metro areas of Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Monroe, Muskegon, and most of Lansing.

2022 Election: Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing, MI) vs Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake, MI)
Explanation: Democrats did very good in this district in the 2022 elections. fWhitmer, Benson, and Nessel won this district by an average of 9.5 points. Elissa Slotkin has already essentially cleared the field for the 2024 Senate race in Michigan, so you would have to think she’d be able to do the same here. Also, given her historical overperformance in her Congressional district I think she wins by a margin similar to the statewide Dems or more. I think the Republicans also put forward a credible candidate here given how close this seat is in general. Senate Majority Mike Shirkey, who was term limited, decides to jump in thinking the environment would be a good one for Republicans, only to lose by almost double digits.

Hey Gass. I’m still waiting on a reply. If you make Gottheimer a Senator I won’t complain about Underwood.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 40: Grand River Watershed
Population: 3,223,713 (-2.74)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.18%-48.03%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.12%
Demographics: 76% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The objective here was to create a Southern Michigan based district that did not go into the Detroit Metropolitan Area. At its core is the Grand Rapids Metropolitan Area, but I also had to add the metro areas of Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Monroe, Muskegon, and most of Lansing.

2022 Election: Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing, MI) vs Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake, MI)
Explanation: Democrats did very good in this district in the 2022 elections. fWhitmer, Benson, and Nessel won this district by an average of 9.5 points. Elissa Slotkin has already essentially cleared the field for the 2024 Senate race in Michigan, so you would have to think she’d be able to do the same here. Also, given her historical overperformance in her Congressional district I think she wins by a margin similar to the statewide Dems or more. I think the Republicans also put forward a credible candidate here given how close this seat is in general. Senate Majority Mike Shirkey, who was term limited, decides to jump in thinking the environment would be a good one for Republicans, only to lose by almost double digits.

Hey Gass. I’m still waiting on a reply. If you make Gottheimer a Senator I won’t complain about Underwood.

Dude, Gass already made a ruling on the North Jersey seat; let it go.

I’m sorry. I got carried away with this. I don’t actually care for Gottheimer or Sherril either way and just wanted Gass to take my side in what would be my home district. I’ll agree to your Casten/Sherrill offer. It’s up to Gass to make the final decision though.

[Tekken_Guy]

Please stop clogging the thread with drabble and massive quote chains some of us are trying to read here

It’s not an Atlas thread without those, though.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's Underwood/Sherrill in this project, but you can pretend it is whoever you want it to be. Like I said, all that really matters is what party holds the seat because at the end I'm going to count everything thing up and see how the current Senate breakdown would be.

One thing I'm proud of with how the map turned up is that the 50th seat is D+0 (Lower Chesapeake Bay) and the 51st seat (Driftless Area & Northwoods) is R+0. It was totally unintentional and I only realized it after I was totally done and was doing all the math.

I was just offering some suggestions based on some facts that I know. I mean I convinced you to go with Coons for the South Jersey seat when you originally went with Carper.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's Underwood/Sherrill in this project, but you can pretend it is whoever you want it to be. Like I said, all that really matters is what party holds the seat because at the end I'm going to count everything thing up and see how the current Senate breakdown would be.

One thing I'm proud of with how the map turned up is that the 50th seat is D+0 (Lower Chesapeake Bay) and the 51st seat (Driftless Area & Northwoods) is R+0. It was totally unintentional and I only realized it after I was totally done and was doing all the math.

I was just offering some suggestions based on some facts that I know. I mean I convinced you to go with Coons for the South Jersey seat when you originally went with Carper.

I'm fine with suggestions, I've used many by you and others. Please keep providing them. I'm just at a point were I'm cool with the decisions I've made and I want to move on.

I'm sorry. I got defensive when you initially agreed to my Gottheimer suggestion and reversed it when Mr. X provided a counterargument and I started grasping at straws.

He's probably right about Casten too. He'd probably be discouraged from seeking that senate seat because he's needed to get rid of Newman.

Also, given the Democratic party valuing diversity, I imagine they'll favor the woman of color in a swing seat over the white guy from a swing seat. Same thing with Sherrill/Gottheimer, minus Sherrill being a POC.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 42: Northern Great Lakes Shorelines
Population: 3,477,871 (+4.93)
States: Michigan (88.71%), Minnesota (8.91%), and Wisconsin (2.38%)
Largest City: Duluth, Minnesota
Cook PVI: R+10
Biden/Trump: 41.69%-56.72%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.18%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.18%
Demographics: 85% White, 4% Hispanic, 6% Black, 1% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The starting point for this district was the remainder of the State of Michigan. This included a large percentage of the Detroit Metropolitan Area, Flint, the Tri-Cities Area, Northern Michigan, and the Upper Peninsula. This still left the district about 5 to 10 points under the population target. To get this remaining population I decided to add the Lake Superior shoreline counties from Wisconsin and the Iron Range counties from Minnesota.

2022 Election: Bob Lorinser (D-Marquette, MI) vs Lisa McClain (R-Bruce, MI)
Explanation: As crazy as it sounds, given this is a R+10 seat that Trump won by 15 points, using an average of major statewide results, this district was essentially tied in 2022! That said, I imagine a Republican would win this district in a major Federal race such as this, but it would end up being much closer than it should have any right to be. Rep. Lisa McClain lives in this district and appears to be interested in running for Senate in 2024. Democrats are kicking themselves for not putting up a stronger candidate after Lorinser only loses by mid single digits.

I’d go with Pete Stauber for this one. McClain’s only a freshman and I can’t see her making the jump after one term. Stauber at least is a sophomore.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 42: Northern Great Lakes Shorelines
Population: 3,477,871 (+4.93)
States: Michigan (88.71%), Minnesota (8.91%), and Wisconsin (2.38%)
Largest City: Duluth, Minnesota
Cook PVI: R+10
Biden/Trump: 41.69%-56.72%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.18%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.18%
Demographics: 85% White, 4% Hispanic, 6% Black, 1% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The starting point for this district was the remainder of the State of Michigan. This included a large percentage of the Detroit Metropolitan Area, Flint, the Tri-Cities Area, Northern Michigan, and the Upper Peninsula. This still left the district about 5 to 10 points under the population target. To get this remaining population I decided to add the Lake Superior shoreline counties from Wisconsin and the Iron Range counties from Minnesota.

2022 Election: Bob Lorinser (D-Marquette, MI) vs Lisa McClain (R-Bruce, MI)
Explanation: As crazy as it sounds, given this is a R+10 seat that Trump won by 15 points, using an average of major statewide results, this district was essentially tied in 2022! That said, I imagine a Republican would win this district in a major Federal race such as this, but it would end up being much closer than it should have any right to be. Rep. Lisa McClain lives in this district and appears to be interested in running for Senate in 2024. Democrats are kicking themselves for not putting up a stronger candidate after Lorinser only loses by mid single digits.

I’d go with Pete Stauber for this one. McClain’s only a freshman and I can’t see her making the jump after one term. Stauber at least is a sophomore.

Michigan makes way too much of the % of this district for the eventual nominee to not come from there.

Why not John Moolenaar instead? He’s the dean of the delegation there.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 44: Southern Ridge and Valley
Population: 3,204,442 (-3.32%)
States: Georgia (100%)
Largest City: Sandy Springs, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+14
Biden/Trump: 40.05%-58.49%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +9.56%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +7.20%
Demographics: 59% White, 14% Hispanic, 16% Black, 9% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district is centered around the northern suburbs and exurbs of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. This only provides about 83% of the population needed, so I also added a large portion of Northwest Georgia including the Dalton and Rome areas for an additional 423,455 people.

2022 Election: Bob Christian (D-Dawsonville, GA) vs Geoff Duncan (R-Cumming, GA)
Explanation: Today this district is Safe Republican, but it won’t be in the near future. That 9.5 point swing to the Democrats was the second largest pro-Democratic swing in the country. Given the rapid diversifying growth in this region, I do not see how a Democrat doesn’t win here by the end of the decade. However, right now any Republican who runs here would win. Even someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene who I considered. Former Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan runs here and ends up winning a narrow primary race against a MAGA backed election denier, before going on to a big win in the general election

I can’t see Geoff Duncan run for Senate. He left the LG office because he was sick of Trump’s craziness and has little interest in ever running for office again. I’d go with Rob Woodall making a comeback here.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 44: Southern Ridge and Valley
Population: 3,204,442 (-3.32%)
States: Georgia (100%)
Largest City: Sandy Springs, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+14
Biden/Trump: 40.05%-58.49%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +9.56%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +7.20%
Demographics: 59% White, 14% Hispanic, 16% Black, 9% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district is centered around the northern suburbs and exurbs of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. This only provides about 83% of the population needed, so I also added a large portion of Northwest Georgia including the Dalton and Rome areas for an additional 423,455 people.

2022 Election: Bob Christian (D-Dawsonville, GA) vs Geoff Duncan (R-Cumming, GA)
Explanation: Today this district is Safe Republican, but it won’t be in the near future. That 9.5 point swing to the Democrats was the second largest pro-Democratic swing in the country. Given the rapid diversifying growth in this region, I do not see how a Democrat doesn’t win here by the end of the decade. However, right now any Republican who runs here would win. Even someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene who I considered. Former Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan runs here and ends up winning a narrow primary race against a MAGA backed election denier, before going on to a big win in the general election

I can’t see Geoff Duncan run for Senate. He left the LG office because he was sick of Trump’s craziness and has little interest in ever running for office again. I’d go with Rob Woodall making a comeback here.

Thinking about it again, I agreed. I made the change.

I was considering both Kelly Loeffler and Karen Handel but I feel both are damaged goods at this point. And I can't imagine Rich McCormick go for the senate seat rather than new new open GA-06.

Do you think Barry Loudermilk could have worked too?