2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

District 14: Lehigh Valley & Skyland
Population: 3,417,415 (+3.11%)
States: New Jersey (71.35%) and Pennsylvania (28.65%)
Largest City: Paterson, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+3
Biden/Trump: 54.62%-44.12%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.07
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.71
Demographics: 60% White, 21% Hispanic, 10% Black, 9% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The core of this district is centered around the last piece of the New York City Metropolitan Area, largely in New Jersey with a tiny part in Pennsylvania. This still left about a quarter of the district that needed to be filled. Thankfully the population of the Lehigh Valley Metropolitan Area was exactly the number I was looking for.

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs William Prempeh (R-Paterson, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. I have Mikie Sherrill choosing to run here after beating Josh Gottheimer in the Democratic primary after getting the pivotal endorsement of Susan WIld in the Lehigh Valley. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid high single digit win.

I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.

District 15: Delaware Valley
Population: 3,469,722 (+4.68%)
States: Delaware (16.45%), New Jersey (49.52%) and Pennsylvania 34.04%
Largest City: Cherry Hill Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+5
Biden/Trump: 56.99%-41.74%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.38
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.02
Demographics: 67% White, 11% Hispanic, 10% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The explanation for this district will make more sense once I discuss the next district, but in short, the goal here was to have a district that includes all of the outer areas of the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area. I also included the counties in South Jersey that are not in the Philly Metro, but would have no other place to go.

2022 Election: Thomas Carper (D-Wilmington, DE) vs Jefferson Van Drew (R-Dennis Township, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Joe Biden’s district had this system been in place during his time in the Senate. Even though Delaware only makes up a little over 15% of this district, I would expect there would be incumbent deference and one of either Tom Carper or Chris Coons would end up getting the nomination. I went with Carper due to his seniority. On the Republican side I went with Rep. Van Drew as I could see Republicans wanting someone they could sell as a former Democrat. Governor Murphy narrowly lost the New Jersey portion of this in 2021, but Democrats did very well in the Delaware and Pennsylvania portions in 2022, so this would not end up being that close.

Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

District 19: Lower Chesapeake Bay
Population: 3,365,800 (+1.55)
States: Delaware (12.46%), Maryland (8.44%), North Carolina (21.90%) and Virginia (57.21%)
Largest City: Virginia Beach, VA
Cook PVI: D+0
Biden/Trump: 51.90%-46.37%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.27%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.91%
Demographics: 55% White, 7% Hispanic, 32% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The idea of this district was to put together many distinct regions along the Eastern Seaboard that did not have enough population to have its own district. Centered around the Hampton Roads/Virginia Beach Metropolitan area in Virginia, this district also combines that with a vast majority of the Delvamar peninsula, the Virginia Chesapeake peninsulas, and most of the inner/outer banks of North Carolina.

2022 Election: Elaine Luria (D-Virginia Beach, VA) vs Gregory Murphy (R-Greenville. NC)
Explanation: Democrats have not done well in this region since 2020. Northeast North Carolina swung hard against Beasley in her Senate race and Rep. Luria lost her reelection campaign in the very swingy Virginia Beach based VA-02. Even though Biden won here by ~5.5, I think the Republican ends up winning her. Speaking of Luria, I think she decides to run here as it’s a chance to move up and the PVI of the district is actually a bit more Democratic than her house seat was. Republicans decide to go with Rep. Greg Murphy from NC-03.

Your call, but I really think Murphy would’ve been the Todd Akin of 2022 ITL.  In June 2022, he had this to say about exceptions for abortion in cases of rape: “Nobody forces anybody to have sex.”  He literally straight up denied the existence of rape.  It didn’t matter in NC-3, but in this district against a serious opponent…

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

No dice, I’d rather have Casten or whoever in this seat and Sherrill (or really almost anyone but Gottheimer) in the North Jersey seat if we’re doing it that way

But really this is all Gass3268’s call.  We can certainly make arguments for changes we think make sense, but whether Casten or Underwood gets the seat is really up to Gass3268 (as it should be given that this is his project).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

District 40: Grand River Watershed
Population: 3,223,713 (-2.74)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.18%-48.03%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.12%
Demographics: 76% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The objective here was to create a Southern Michigan based district that did not go into the Detroit Metropolitan Area. At its core is the Grand Rapids Metropolitan Area, but I also had to add the metro areas of Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Monroe, Muskegon, and most of Lansing.

2022 Election: Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing, MI) vs Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake, MI)
Explanation: Democrats did very good in this district in the 2022 elections. fWhitmer, Benson, and Nessel won this district by an average of 9.5 points. Elissa Slotkin has already essentially cleared the field for the 2024 Senate race in Michigan, so you would have to think she’d be able to do the same here. Also, given her historical overperformance in her Congressional district I think she wins by a margin similar to the statewide Dems or more. I think the Republicans also put forward a credible candidate here given how close this seat is in general. Senate Majority Mike Shirkey, who was term limited, decides to jump in thinking the environment would be a good one for Republicans, only to lose by almost double digits.

Hey Gass. I’m still waiting on a reply. If you make Gottheimer a Senator I won’t complain about Underwood.

Dude, Gass already made a ruling on the North Jersey seat back on page 2; let it go.  

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

No dice, I’d rather have Casten or whoever in this seat and Sherrill (or really almost anyone but Gottheimer) in the North Jersey seat if we’re doing it that way

But really this is all Gass3268’s call.  We can certainly make arguments for changes we think make sense, but whether Casten or Underwood gets the seat is really up to Gass3268 (as it should be given that this is his project).

Yeah I honestly was not able to make a good case for either Casten or Gottheimer getting the seat. I was trying to put my personal preferences in. My only arguments (Sherrill wants to be Governor, Casten avoids a double bunking) were very flimsy, and your counterarguments (Gottheimer also wants to be governor, Newman was damaged goods, Gottheimer would basically be another Sinema).

I mean, I wasn’t gonna say you were making flimsy arguments…

Also, you left out two big arguments against Gottheimer: namely that Gottheimer would have nothing resembling a realistic path to victory in a Democratic Senate primary and that he’s generally disliked by the various factions of the New Jersey Democratic machine including those in this district (as well as the activists who form the base for progressive and/or good government challenges to said machine).  That wasn’t necessarily always the case, but it definitely is at this point.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

District 51: Greater St. Louis
Population: 3,172,999 (-4.27%)
States: Illinois (26.50%) and Missouri (73.50%)
Largest City: St. Louis, Missouri
Cook PVI: R+3
Biden/Trump: 48.31%-49.88%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.28%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.92%
Demographics: 72% White, 4% Hispanic, 18% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The St. Louis Metropolitan Area makes up 85% of the target population needed for a district. The remaining population came from adding surrounding counties to create a very aesthetically pleasing square shaped district. Unfortunately the shape of this district resulted in ugly looking Mid-South district. Choices had to be made and I think I made the right ones.

2022 Election: Claire McCaskill (D-St. Louis, Missouri) vs Eric Schmitt (R-Glendale, Missouri)
Explanation: In what ended up being one of the biggest squeakers of the night, Claire McCaskill narrowly wins this seat to return to Congress after losing in 2018. Senate Democrats won this seat by two points in 2022 and McCaskill would end up winning by that same margin as well. Eric Schmitt, then Missouri’s Attorney General and current United States Senator, runs here on the Republican side.

Doesn’t McCaskill live in Kansas City?