2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cool thread!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: I’m sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.

Dude if you don’t like how he’s doing it make your own thread

I’m just sharing my opinions.

No worries, I like the back and forth. All I ask is that we snip out the pictures in quotes so that it doesn't clutter the thread.

Hope to have more districts later today, DRA was acting weird for me last night so I wasn't able to take screenshots.

DRA is being weird for me as well.
Stats aren't working.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yea I was trying this on my own for funsies and DRA was having issues, especially when I had multiple instances of it running

I've never even tried of running multiple instances of DRA, that may have lead me to be dissatisfied with the boundaries of the western districts when I also tried this idea for fun a while back.

Is it even possible for California to run well? I don’t know if the problem is my internet or my computer but on every device I’ve tried California is laggy enough to make it not worth it.

I was able to run California just this morning. But this was just for a new map. I dunno about a pre-loaded, completed map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oh god Kane is totally the Republican Fetterman ittl

I almost want someone to make a timeline about this now.
"Citizen Kane for US Senate"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Imagine what the numbers would have looked in this district in 2006. Ds do better in the Indiana portion than the Illinois one!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

Fine by me.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just a FYI that this will be on a bit of a pause right now. My wife and I recently bought a house and will be moving over the course of the next month and I won't have the time for this. Hope to start it back up towards the end of April.

Best of luck.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How did you do this with districts that are in multiple states? DRA doesn't exactly allow you to use multiple states at a time.

Basically keep track of the different district parts in a spreadsheet

Cool

Spreadsheets are quite useful, aren't they?