2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting
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  2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting
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Author Topic: 2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting  (Read 3719 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #150 on: March 13, 2023, 11:03:56 PM »



District 50: Eastern Corn Belt
Population: 3,167,459 (-4.44%)
States: Illinois (79.28%) and Iowa (20.72%)
Largest City: Rockford, Illinois
Cook PVI: R+6
Biden/Trump: 44.63%-53.14%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.22%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.14%
Demographics: 78% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district started with what was left of Illinois after all of the other districts were drawn in the state. This ended up being most of Northwestern Illinois and all of Central Illinois. To get the rest of the needed population, I decided to add Southeastern Iowa and was able to line it up so it matched the Driftless Area & Northwoods district.

2022 Election: David Palmer (Champaign, IL) vs Darin LaHood (R-Dunlap, IL)
Explanation: Senate Democrats lost this seat by around 9 points in 2022. Senator Dick Durbin lives in this district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and retire. I actually considered having him carpetbag to the Western Chicagoland District, as I think he would do well there considering just how long heís represented the entire state of Illinois, but I decided against it. I went with Rep. LaHood as I feel like he would have the right mix of establishment support, while not turning off the MAGA crowd.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #151 on: March 13, 2023, 11:41:08 PM »



District 51: Greater St. Louis
Population: 3,172,999 (-4.27%)
States: Illinois (26.50%) and Missouri (73.50%)
Largest City: St. Louis, Missouri
Cook PVI: R+3
Biden/Trump: 48.31%-49.88%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.28%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.92%
Demographics: 72% White, 4% Hispanic, 18% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The St. Louis Metropolitan Area makes up 85% of the target population needed for a district. The remaining population came from adding surrounding counties to create a very aesthetically pleasing square shaped district. Unfortunately the shape of this district resulted in ugly looking Mid-South district. Choices had to be made and I think I made the right ones.

2022 Election: Claire McCaskill (D-St. Louis, Missouri) vs Eric Schmitt (R-Glendale, Missouri)
Explanation: In what ended up being one of the biggest squeakers of the night, Claire McCaskill narrowly wins this seat to return to Congress after losing in 2018. Senate Democrats won this seat by two points in 2022 and McCaskill would end up winning by that same margin as well. Eric Schmitt, then Missouriís Attorney General and current United States Senator, runs here on the Republican side.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #152 on: March 13, 2023, 11:43:46 PM »

Small question whatís the difference between swing and trend?

Swing looks at how the margin in an area changed between two elections, while trend looks at how the margin in an area changed between two elections adjusting to a 50-50 election by subtracting the national swing from the local swing.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #153 on: March 14, 2023, 12:52:31 AM »

Your mid-south district can be improved easily by removing its northern-most counties and instead taking Carbondale and other parts of your St. Louis district so that Little Egypt isn't split so badly.  There's no reason your St. Louis district can't go west rather than south/east.  Have your brown district take more of Iowa so that your orange district can take the removed parts of the red district. 
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #154 on: March 14, 2023, 06:39:12 AM »



District 51: Greater St. Louis
Population: 3,172,999 (-4.27%)
States: Illinois (26.50%) and Missouri (73.50%)
Largest City: St. Louis, Missouri
Cook PVI: R+3
Biden/Trump: 48.31%-49.88%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.28%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.92%
Demographics: 72% White, 4% Hispanic, 18% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The St. Louis Metropolitan Area makes up 85% of the target population needed for a district. The remaining population came from adding surrounding counties to create a very aesthetically pleasing square shaped district. Unfortunately the shape of this district resulted in ugly looking Mid-South district. Choices had to be made and I think I made the right ones.

2022 Election: Claire McCaskill (D-St. Louis, Missouri) vs Eric Schmitt (R-Glendale, Missouri)
Explanation: In what ended up being one of the biggest squeakers of the night, Claire McCaskill narrowly wins this seat to return to Congress after losing in 2018. Senate Democrats won this seat by two points in 2022 and McCaskill would end up winning by that same margin as well. Eric Schmitt, then Missouriís Attorney General and current United States Senator, runs here on the Republican side.

Doesnít McCaskill live in Kansas City?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #155 on: March 14, 2023, 08:48:09 AM »

Your mid-south district can be improved easily by removing its northern-most counties and instead taking Carbondale and other parts of your St. Louis district so that Little Egypt isn't split so badly.  There's no reason your St. Louis district can't go west rather than south/east.  Have your brown district take more of Iowa so that your orange district can take the removed parts of the red district. 

At this point things essentailly have to be frozen in place given all the different calculations that are in place. Also I'm not sure what your proposing would look that much better than the current map. I've found with some of these, things can look better if you conceptualize some of the districts as pairs. Greater St. Louis and Mid-South would be one of those examples, with Upper Ohio River Valley and Northern Appalachia being another.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #156 on: March 14, 2023, 09:02:54 AM »

District 51: Greater St. Louis
Population: 3,172,999 (-4.27%)
States: Illinois (26.50%) and Missouri (73.50%)
Largest City: St. Louis, Missouri
Cook PVI: R+3
Biden/Trump: 48.31%-49.88%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.28%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.92%
Demographics: 72% White, 4% Hispanic, 18% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The St. Louis Metropolitan Area makes up 85% of the target population needed for a district. The remaining population came from adding surrounding counties to create a very aesthetically pleasing square shaped district. Unfortunately the shape of this district resulted in ugly looking Mid-South district. Choices had to be made and I think I made the right ones.

2022 Election: Claire McCaskill (D-St. Louis, Missouri) vs Eric Schmitt (R-Glendale, Missouri)
Explanation: In what ended up being one of the biggest squeakers of the night, Claire McCaskill narrowly wins this seat to return to Congress after losing in 2018. Senate Democrats won this seat by two points in 2022 and McCaskill would end up winning by that same margin as well. Eric Schmitt, then Missouriís Attorney General and current United States Senator, runs here on the Republican side.

Doesnít McCaskill live in Kansas City?

I did some digging, it appears that sometime after she became a statewide official she moved to the St. Louis area. Probably after she married her second husband who was from the area. She's probably lived there for close to 20 years now.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
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« Reply #157 on: March 14, 2023, 01:25:18 PM »

McCaskill is done with running for elected office; pick someone else.
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Peltola for God Empress
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« Reply #158 on: March 14, 2023, 02:31:29 PM »

Speaking of squakers, in my own version of this I did the math for the nevada based seat and doing some napkin math I ended up with Cortez Masto winning by less than 2,000 votes
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #159 on: March 14, 2023, 02:47:13 PM »

McCaskill is done with running for elected office; pick someone else.

Because Missouri in real life is a red state. This is a swing district.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #160 on: March 14, 2023, 03:04:30 PM »

McCaskill is done with running for elected office; pick someone else.

Because Missouri in real life is a red state. This is a swing district.

Exactly.
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patzer
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« Reply #161 on: March 16, 2023, 06:38:58 AM »



District 43: Congaree Bottomland & Peach Country
Population: 3,189,541 (-3.77%)
States: Georgia (50.40%) and South Carolina (49.60%)
Largest City: Augusta, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.11%-48.66%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.40%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.04%
Demographics: 50% White, 5% Hispanic, 41% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The idea with this district was to attempt to connect all the African American communities in the Georgia Black Belt and Central South Carolina. Unfortunately, given the current demographics in this region, it comes a little short. I considered drawing an arm into the Charleston Metropolitan Area to pick up Black voters there, but I decided against it as I donít think it would get it over 50% VAP. I do still think this is still a solid district from a community of interest point of view as it connects similar sized metros in Columbia, Augusta, Macon, and Columbus. Also, just as an interesting observation, Iím pretty sure this is the district that is the closest to a pure 50-50 split between two states.

2022 Election: Stephen Benjamin (D-Colulmbia, SC) vs Drew Ferguson (R-West Point, GA)
Explanation: Given the results from 2020, I would expect this race to draw two solid candidates from both parties. For the Democrats, I decided to go with then Columbia, SC mayor Stephen Benjamin and for the Republicans, Rep. Drew Fergueson. Fergueson is considering a run for Governor in 2026, so he clearly has some desire for a promotion. Democrats did not do well in this region in the 2020 midterm elections. Using an average of elections in Georgia and the Governorís race in South Carolina, the Republicans won here by around 4.5 points, a 6 point swing from Bidenís results in 2020. I would expect Ferguson to win here as well.

Would it not be possible to make this district majority black by bringing in the likes of Montgomery, Alabama?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #162 on: March 19, 2023, 08:55:58 AM »



District 43: Congaree Bottomland & Peach Country
Population: 3,189,541 (-3.77%)
States: Georgia (50.40%) and South Carolina (49.60%)
Largest City: Augusta, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.11%-48.66%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.40%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.04%
Demographics: 50% White, 5% Hispanic, 41% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The idea with this district was to attempt to connect all the African American communities in the Georgia Black Belt and Central South Carolina. Unfortunately, given the current demographics in this region, it comes a little short. I considered drawing an arm into the Charleston Metropolitan Area to pick up Black voters there, but I decided against it as I donít think it would get it over 50% VAP. I do still think this is still a solid district from a community of interest point of view as it connects similar sized metros in Columbia, Augusta, Macon, and Columbus. Also, just as an interesting observation, Iím pretty sure this is the district that is the closest to a pure 50-50 split between two states.

2022 Election: Stephen Benjamin (D-Colulmbia, SC) vs Drew Ferguson (R-West Point, GA)
Explanation: Given the results from 2020, I would expect this race to draw two solid candidates from both parties. For the Democrats, I decided to go with then Columbia, SC mayor Stephen Benjamin and for the Republicans, Rep. Drew Fergueson. Fergueson is considering a run for Governor in 2026, so he clearly has some desire for a promotion. Democrats did not do well in this region in the 2020 midterm elections. Using an average of elections in Georgia and the Governorís race in South Carolina, the Republicans won here by around 4.5 points, a 6 point swing from Bidenís results in 2020. I would expect Ferguson to win here as well.

Would it not be possible to make this district majority black by bringing in the likes of Montgomery, Alabama?

I'm not sure, the problem is what to do with the very white afters north of Montgomery that are in the purple district.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #163 on: March 21, 2023, 08:21:25 PM »

Just a FYI that this will be on a bit of a pause right now. My wife and I recently bought a house and will be moving over the course of the next month and I won't have the time for this. Hope to start it back up towards the end of April.
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« Reply #164 on: March 21, 2023, 08:25:00 PM »

Just a FYI that this will be on a bit of a pause right now. My wife and I recently bought a house and will be moving over the course of the next month and I won't have the time for this. Hope to start it back up towards the end of April.
Best of luck.
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