2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting

[Gass3268]

Can you elaborate on why you called it Mid South? It’s an ok name but I’m not sure what else to call it. A district containing Illinois being called South just feels wrong in my bones lol

Maybe Confluence, from the Mississippi and Ohio River?

I mean I guess I could have gone with the name Mid-South & Little Egypt, but Wikipedia doesn't have an issue with it

The Mid-South is an informally-defined region of the United States, usually thought to be anchored by the Memphis metropolitan area and consisting of West Tennessee, North Mississippi, Southern Missouri, Western Kentucky, Central, Northeast, and Eastern Arkansas, Northwest Alabama and even Eastern Oklahoma.[2] Southern Illinois (especially Cairo, shown on the map) and Southwestern Indiana are sometimes included in this region.

Mid-South

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Can you elaborate on why you called it Mid South? It’s an ok name but I’m not sure what else to call it. A district containing Illinois being called South just feels wrong in my bones lol

Maybe Confluence, from the Mississippi and Ohio River?

I mean I guess I could have gone with the name Mid-South & Little Egypt, but Wikipedia doesn't have an issue with it

The Mid-South is an informally-defined region of the United States, usually thought to be anchored by the Memphis metropolitan area and consisting of West Tennessee, North Mississippi, Southern Missouri, Western Kentucky, Central, Northeast, and Eastern Arkansas, Northwest Alabama and even Eastern Oklahoma.[2] Southern Illinois (especially Cairo, shown on the map) and Southwestern Indiana are sometimes included in this region.

Mid-South

oh I hate that 😅

[Tekken_Guy]

I think another interesting thing to look at is the butterfly effect this has on house races.

Here's what I have so far:

GA-03: Drew Ferguson's senate run would lead to a crowded primary to replace him. State Senator Matt Brass could possibly run here, but I could see him be defeated in the runoff by a first-time candidate, like Andrew Clyde did in 2020 and Ferguson himself in 2016.
IL-02: For Robin Kelly's seat, I'm picking State Senator Napoleon Harris. He's a former NFL star and ran in the 2016 Senate primary that Tammy Duckworth won.
IL-14: Lauren Underwood's new seat is now centered around Will County, and her successor will likely come from there. For the purpose of this project, I'd pick Meg Loughran Cappel, a state senator. Marie Newman may or may not carpetbag here, but I doubt she'll win a primary regardless.
IN-03: Jim Banks leaves his seat open two years early. I'd imagine a lot of the same candidate we'll see run in 2024 would run here. I heard rumors Marlin Stutzman is seeking a comeback. For the purpose of this scenario I'd recommend Stutzman as the nominee here.
MD-03: With John Sarbanes running for senate in this district, a possible house successor is Howard County Executive Calvin Ball.
MI-07: Slotkin, like Banks, is leaving for Senate in real life in 2024. Curtis Hertel, a state senator who succeeded Gretchen Whitmer, could run here. He was termed out in 2022 and is heavily speculated for the 2024 seat IRL. The race is closer than our timelines but Tom Barrett still loses.
MI-09: Lisa McClain is succeeded by former rep. Shane Hernandez, who was the runner up in the 2020 primary. This means Tudor Dixon chooses someone else as a running mate.
MS-02: For Bennie Thompson's seat, I picked Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba, who emerges victorious after a runoff with DeKeither Stamps.
NC-03: I imagine the primary to replace Greg Murphy will be crowded. In the end, I'll have Bobby Hanig, then a state rep. but now a State Senator, as our winner.
NJ-06: With Frank Pallone running in the Jersey Shore district. a natural successor would be State Senator Vin Gopal.
NJ-07: Since Tom Kean is running for Senate in your scenario, maybe Jack Ciattarelli considers? On the other hand, he's clearly planning another gubernatorial run so the GOP may be stuck with Erik Peterson or Phil Rizzo. Rik Mehta, the 2020 Senate nominee, is from Chester, so he could definitely run here rather than make his carpetbag down to NJ-06. I'll go with Mehta.
NJ-11: This is a tough one, There are not a lot of Democratic lawmakers in the area. Nia Gill, Mila Jasey, and Tom Giblin are all very old, and there are hardly any Republicans in office in Morris. I'll go with Essex County Commissioner Leonard Luciano here.
NY-14: Maybe Alessandra Biaggi chooses to run here?
NY-23: Without Paladino in the house race, maybe another Erie-based candidate runs here instead. Like Stefan Mychajliw. I still think Langworthy wins the primary though.
NY-24: Without Claudia Tenney it's likely someone who actually lives here will run. Someone like State Senator Rob Ortt.
OH-12: State Senator Jay Hottinger lives here and was termed out in 2022. He seems like the one to pick.
PA-02: Maybe Boyle's brother takes the seat? If that's too much nepotism, then maybe Ed Neilson?
TN-08: Kustoff going for senate opens up a primary battle between Shelby and the rurals. I doubt Stephen Fincher makes a comeback. State Senator John Stevens seems like he'd be the main Rural candidate. For the Shelby part, I don't know and obvious frontrunners. Maybe Trustee and 2018 mayoral candidate David Lenoir runs. I'll go with Lenoir, who narrowly edges out Stevens in the race.
VA-02: Kiggans still wins, but she needs a different opponent. Can't see any of the delegates run because they were busy with their off-year re-election campaigns. But Cheryl Turpin, who Kiggans beat for state senate, is a possibility.
WV-02: Alex Mooney leaving the house means two more years of David McKinley.

BONUSSES

GA-11: You mentioned there's a MAGA Republican who Woodall narrowly beat. I'll have it be Barry Loudermilk, and in turn be having having Ed Setzler, then a State Rep., take his house seat instead of going for State Senate.
NJ-05: In my scenario, the failed Gottheimer senate run just runs him out of congress entirely. State Senator Joe Lagana is picked to replace him.

[Gass3268]

I'll have some more updates tomorrow.

[Gass3268]

District 37: Central Chicagoland
Population: 3,224,903 (-2.70%)
States: Illinois (91.94%) and Indiana (8.06%)
Largest City: South & West Sides of Chicago, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+32
Biden/Trump: 81.19%-17.32%
2016->2020 Swing: Rep +4.09%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +6.45%
Demographics: 23% White, 35% Hispanic, 39% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native
VRA Demographics: 25% White, 32% Hispanic, 38% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native

Drawing Thought Process: Pretty simple idea with this district, the idea here was to combine all of the Black and Hispanic neighborhoods in the CIty of Chicago with nearby cities in the metro areas that fit the same parameters. This included Gary, Hammond, Cicero, Chicago Heights, Maywood, and others. The end result is a very diverse district.

2022 Election: Robin Kelly (D-Matteson, IL) vs Geno Young (R-Chicago, IL)
Explanation: This district is also the second most Democratic district in the country, so all of the action will be in the Democratic primary. In terms of voter engagement, the African American community has always seen higher turnout than the Hispanic community, so I imagine the Senator here would come from that community. Robin Kelly feels like a good bet here, she has attempted statewide office runs before and she was the chair of the Illinois Democratic Party for little over a year.

[Gass3268]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Imagine what the numbers would have looked in this district in 2006. Ds do better in the Indiana portion than the Illinois one!

[Tekken_Guy]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

[Gass3268]

District 39: Wabash River Watershed
Population: 3,275,555 (-1.17%)
States: Indiana (100%)
Largest City: Indianapolis, Indiana
Cook PVI: R+8
Biden/Trump:44.29%-53.67%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +5.01%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.64%
Demographics: 74% White, 7% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: At the core of this district is the Indianapolis Metropolitan Area. However, that only provided 63% of the necessary population for a district. I decided to fill in the rest of the district by adding the smaller metro areas that surround Indianaplist. This includes Bloomington, Columbus, Lafayette, Kokomo, Terre Haute, and a few micropolitan areas.

2022 Election: Christina Hale (D-Indianapolis, IN) vs Todd Young (R-Bloomington, IN)
Explanation: This is a pretty solid Republican district and home of incumbent Senator Todd Young.  He won this district by 13 points in 2022, a 5 point improvement compared to his victory in 2016 over Evan Byah, and he would win it here in this scenario by a similar margin.  It should be noted that this 5 point improvement is much smaller than the 11 point improvement he saw across the Hoosier State. It’s possible this district could be competitive later in the decade or early in the next if the swings in Indianapolis and suburbs continue.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

Fine by me.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

Fine by me.

Until Gass and/or Mr. X agree to it though it’s not official.

[kwabbit]

I think for the Chicago area, I would've had the Chicago district contain all of it + Black South Cook and Hispanic West Cook, have the North Chicagoland wealthy suburbs, then the South Chicagoland and Indiana more working class suburbs. Basically what you had but the Chicago grabs the North side of the city, the North Chicagoland grabs Dupage, and the South Chicagoland grabs Indiana.

For this exercise, I am using the thought process that city borders are not arbitrary, in which case Chicago should generally be kept whole.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Dude if you don’t like how he’s doing it make your own thread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

No dice, I’d rather have Casten or whoever in this seat and Sherrill (or really almost anyone but Gottheimer) in the North Jersey seat if we’re doing it that way

But really this is all Gass3268’s call.  We can certainly make arguments for changes we think make sense, but whether Casten or Underwood gets the seat is really up to Gass3268 (as it should be given that this is his project).

[Gass3268]

I think for the Chicago area, I would've had the Chicago district contain all of it + Black South Cook and Hispanic West Cook, have the North Chicagoland wealthy suburbs, then the South Chicagoland and Indiana more working class suburbs. Basically what you had but the Chicago grabs the North side of the city, the North Chicagoland grabs Dupage, and the South Chicagoland grabs Indiana.

For this exercise, I am using the thought process that city borders are not arbitrary, in which case Chicago should generally be kept whole.

Typically yes, but New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth were split for either population reasons or my modified VRA (I allow for mixed majority-minority districts while the current VRA does not). A few other cities that split counties where split, but I tried my hardest to keep them together.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

No dice, I’d rather have Casten or whoever in this seat and Sherrill (or really almost anyone but Gottheimer) in the North Jersey seat if we’re doing it that way

But really this is all Gass3268’s call.  We can certainly make arguments for changes we think make sense, but whether Casten or Underwood gets the seat is really up to Gass3268 (as it should be given that this is his project).

Yeah I honestly was not able to make a good case for either Casten or Gottheimer getting the seat. I was trying to put my personal preferences in. My only arguments (Sherrill wants to be Governor, Casten avoids a double bunking) were very flimsy, and your counterarguments (Gottheimer also wants to be governor, Newman was damaged goods, Gottheimer would basically be another Sinema).

[Gass3268]

District 40: Grand River Watershed
Population: 3,223,713 (-2.74)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.18%-48.03%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.12%
Demographics: 76% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The objective here was to create a Southern Michigan based district that did not go into the Detroit Metropolitan Area. At its core is the Grand Rapids Metropolitan Area, but I also had to add the metro areas of Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Monroe, Muskegon, and most of Lansing.

2022 Election: Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing, MI) vs Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake, MI)
Explanation: Democrats did very well in this district in the 2022 elections. Whitmer, Benson, and Nessel won this district by an average of 9.5 points. This would have been Debbie Stabenow's seat, but with her retirement it opens the seat up for Elissa Slotkin. She has already essentially cleared the field for the 2024 Senate race in Michigan, so you would have to think she’d be able to do the same here. Also, given her historical overperformance in her Congressional district I think she wins by a margin similar to the statewide Dems or more. I think the Republicans also put forward a credible candidate here given how close this seat is in general. Senate Majority Mike Shirkey, who was term limited, decides to jump in thinking the environment would be a good one for Republicans, only to lose by almost double digits.

[Tekken_Guy]

District 40: Grand River Watershed
Population: 3,223,713 (-2.74)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.18%-48.03%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.12%
Demographics: 76% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The objective here was to create a Southern Michigan based district that did not go into the Detroit Metropolitan Area. At its core is the Grand Rapids Metropolitan Area, but I also had to add the metro areas of Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Monroe, Muskegon, and most of Lansing.

2022 Election: Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing, MI) vs Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake, MI)
Explanation: Democrats did very good in this district in the 2022 elections. fWhitmer, Benson, and Nessel won this district by an average of 9.5 points. Elissa Slotkin has already essentially cleared the field for the 2024 Senate race in Michigan, so you would have to think she’d be able to do the same here. Also, given her historical overperformance in her Congressional district I think she wins by a margin similar to the statewide Dems or more. I think the Republicans also put forward a credible candidate here given how close this seat is in general. Senate Majority Mike Shirkey, who was term limited, decides to jump in thinking the environment would be a good one for Republicans, only to lose by almost double digits.

Hey Gass. I’m still waiting on a reply. If you make Gottheimer a Senator I won’t complain about Underwood.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

District 40: Grand River Watershed
Population: 3,223,713 (-2.74)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.18%-48.03%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.12%
Demographics: 76% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The objective here was to create a Southern Michigan based district that did not go into the Detroit Metropolitan Area. At its core is the Grand Rapids Metropolitan Area, but I also had to add the metro areas of Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Monroe, Muskegon, and most of Lansing.

2022 Election: Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing, MI) vs Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake, MI)
Explanation: Democrats did very good in this district in the 2022 elections. fWhitmer, Benson, and Nessel won this district by an average of 9.5 points. Elissa Slotkin has already essentially cleared the field for the 2024 Senate race in Michigan, so you would have to think she’d be able to do the same here. Also, given her historical overperformance in her Congressional district I think she wins by a margin similar to the statewide Dems or more. I think the Republicans also put forward a credible candidate here given how close this seat is in general. Senate Majority Mike Shirkey, who was term limited, decides to jump in thinking the environment would be a good one for Republicans, only to lose by almost double digits.

Hey Gass. I’m still waiting on a reply. If you make Gottheimer a Senator I won’t complain about Underwood.

Dude, Gass already made a ruling on the North Jersey seat back on page 2; let it go.  

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

Honestly, Sean Casten would be more likely run here instead of Lauren Underwood, because a Casten run conveniently avoids that nasty primary with Marie Newman.

Everyone knew Newman would lose, I doubt she scares off anyone.  I’d bet money on Casten still seeking re-election.

Why would he be less likely to run for Senate than Underwood?

Underwood would be much more likely to win the nomination and Casten strikes me as less ambitious in general

I’ll make a compromise. Underwood can have this seat if you let Gottheimer have the North Jersey senate seat.

No dice, I’d rather have Casten or whoever in this seat and Sherrill (or really almost anyone but Gottheimer) in the North Jersey seat if we’re doing it that way

But really this is all Gass3268’s call.  We can certainly make arguments for changes we think make sense, but whether Casten or Underwood gets the seat is really up to Gass3268 (as it should be given that this is his project).

Yeah I honestly was not able to make a good case for either Casten or Gottheimer getting the seat. I was trying to put my personal preferences in. My only arguments (Sherrill wants to be Governor, Casten avoids a double bunking) were very flimsy, and your counterarguments (Gottheimer also wants to be governor, Newman was damaged goods, Gottheimer would basically be another Sinema).

I mean, I wasn’t gonna say you were making flimsy arguments…

Also, you left out two big arguments against Gottheimer: namely that Gottheimer would have nothing resembling a realistic path to victory in a Democratic Senate primary and that he’s generally disliked by the various factions of the New Jersey Democratic machine including those in this district (as well as the activists who form the base for progressive and/or good government challenges to said machine).  That wasn’t necessarily always the case, but it definitely is at this point.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

District 40: Grand River Watershed
Population: 3,223,713 (-2.74)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.18%-48.03%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.12%
Demographics: 76% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The objective here was to create a Southern Michigan based district that did not go into the Detroit Metropolitan Area. At its core is the Grand Rapids Metropolitan Area, but I also had to add the metro areas of Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Monroe, Muskegon, and most of Lansing.

2022 Election: Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing, MI) vs Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake, MI)
Explanation: Democrats did very good in this district in the 2022 elections. fWhitmer, Benson, and Nessel won this district by an average of 9.5 points. Elissa Slotkin has already essentially cleared the field for the 2024 Senate race in Michigan, so you would have to think she’d be able to do the same here. Also, given her historical overperformance in her Congressional district I think she wins by a margin similar to the statewide Dems or more. I think the Republicans also put forward a credible candidate here given how close this seat is in general. Senate Majority Mike Shirkey, who was term limited, decides to jump in thinking the environment would be a good one for Republicans, only to lose by almost double digits.

Hey Gass. I’m still waiting on a reply. If you make Gottheimer a Senator I won’t complain about Underwood.

That’s an ultimatum, not a “deal”

[Tekken_Guy]

District 40: Grand River Watershed
Population: 3,223,713 (-2.74)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.18%-48.03%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.12%
Demographics: 76% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The objective here was to create a Southern Michigan based district that did not go into the Detroit Metropolitan Area. At its core is the Grand Rapids Metropolitan Area, but I also had to add the metro areas of Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Monroe, Muskegon, and most of Lansing.

2022 Election: Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing, MI) vs Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake, MI)
Explanation: Democrats did very good in this district in the 2022 elections. fWhitmer, Benson, and Nessel won this district by an average of 9.5 points. Elissa Slotkin has already essentially cleared the field for the 2024 Senate race in Michigan, so you would have to think she’d be able to do the same here. Also, given her historical overperformance in her Congressional district I think she wins by a margin similar to the statewide Dems or more. I think the Republicans also put forward a credible candidate here given how close this seat is in general. Senate Majority Mike Shirkey, who was term limited, decides to jump in thinking the environment would be a good one for Republicans, only to lose by almost double digits.

Hey Gass. I’m still waiting on a reply. If you make Gottheimer a Senator I won’t complain about Underwood.

Dude, Gass already made a ruling on the North Jersey seat; let it go.

I’m sorry. I got carried away with this. I don’t actually care for Gottheimer or Sherril either way and just wanted Gass to take my side in what would be my home district. I’ll agree to your Casten/Sherrill offer. It’s up to Gass to make the final decision though.